Dr. Ed’s Blog • Yardeni Research

wiar 08-15-22

MFwebsite2020researchAugust 15, 2022What I Am Reading

August 15 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Waiting For Godot
Today, we sift through the recent economic data and recent Fed head chatter for clues to the critical question: Now that recession fears have abated for 2022, what are the odds of one in 2023? … We give 60% odds to a slow-growth scenario, with GDP growing 1.5% in H2-2022 and 2.5% in 2023; 35% odds to a recession next year precipitated by the Fed’s inflation battle; and 5% odds to a boom scenario. … Critical to the recession question is whether inflation is peaking. We think so but need to see more evidence to be sure. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Elvis” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 8.

Markets
Earnings Season Is Over. The Stock Market’s Gains Won’t Come Easy Now. | BR
Market Rebound Draws Wary Eye From Some Investors | W
Wall Street, Like the Climate Bill, Bets on Both Green Energy and Fossil Fuels | W
Short-sellers are struggling despite a bad year for stocks | E
These Funds Hold Just 1 Bond. Why They’re Revolutionary. | BR

Climate-plus bill
The Climate Bill Is About to Reshape Global Energy. Here’s How to Invest. | BR
Inflation Reduction Act: House passes massive climate, tax and health bill | C
America’s climate-plus spending bill is flawed but essential | E
Drug-Price Rules for Seniors Change With Passage of Climate and Health Bill | W

US
This was a good week for inflation numbers, but whether it can last is the big question | C
Consumers Are Still Spending on Fun | W
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improved in August From Early Summer Low | W
Rent Prices Are Climbing Fast. What’s Happening—and How Much More It Could Rise. | BR
Labor Shortage Is Vexing Challenge for U.S. Economy | W

China
China’s mortgage boycotts are a symptom of a broader crisis | E
An Interview With Allianz Global’s China Expert Virginie Maisonneuve | BR

Industries & companies
Pharma: Buy Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk Stock. Their Weight-Loss Drugs—and Their Shares—Could Take Off. | BR

Technology
Faster Internet Is Coming to America—as Soon as the Government Knows Where to Build It | W

Geopolitics & trade I
China’s huge exercises around Taiwan were a rehearsal, not a signal, says Oriana Skylar Mastro | E
Xi Jinping may attack Taiwan to secure his legacy, warn Admiral Lee Hsi-min and Eric Lee | E
How to prevent a war between America and China over Taiwan | E

Geopolitics & trade II
Thanks to Vladimir Putin, Germany has woken up | E
Why isn’t Russia blocking GPS in Ukraine? | E
Ukraine Accuses Russia of Using Nuclear Plant to Blackmail West | W
First ship carrying Ukraine wheat under UN deal docks in Turkey | R

wiar 08-13-22

MFwebsite2020researchAugust 13, 2022What I Am Reading

August 13 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Health Care, Earnings & Uncle Sam
Today, Jackie takes the pulse of the S&P 500 Health Care sector, examining the M&A activity that has spurred it to outperform the market ytd and what the Inflation Reduction Act will mean for drug makers. … Also: A look at the 2023 earnings growth prospects of various S&P 500 sectors and industries. … And: How the Inflation Reduction Act aims to buy a greener US. … Plus: What will the newly passed CHIPS and Science Act spend $280 billion on? Lots more than chips.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 8.

Markets
Dow closes up 400 points, S&P 500 rises for fourth straight week as investors warm to cooler inflation | C
Have Stocks Bottomed? | Morningstar
Japanese Yen Attracts Hedge Funds as a Speculator’s Currency | W

Central banks
Fed’s Barkin says rate increases need to continue until inflation holds at 2% | C

Global
Global Population Is About to Hit 8 Billion—and Some Argue It Is Near Its Peak | W

US Politics–breaking news
Trump’s Mar-a-Lago, a security ‘nightmare’ that housed classified documents | R
FBI Recovered 11 Sets of Classified Documents in Trump Search, Inventory Shows | W
Trump search warrant cites statutes that call for prison sentences | C

US
This was a good week for inflation numbers, but whether it can last is the big question | C
Best Way to Measure Inflation Rates? The Mysterious Price of Mayonnaise | B
Inflation Reduction Act’s Needless Health-Care Provisions | city-journal.org
Can I Buy a House? Market is Cooling Off With Fewer Bidding Wars Across US | B
U.S. Housing Affordability in June Was the Worst Since 1989 | W
U.S. Schools Put Covid-19 Safety Measures in Rearview, Dividing Some Parents | W

Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine Readies Plans to Evacuate Civilians Amid Fighting Near Nuclear Plant | W
China’s Xi Jinping Plans to Meet With Biden in First Foreign Trip in Nearly Three Years | W

Industries & companies
Airlines: U.S. allows Delta to temporarily cut some New York, Washington flights | R
Airlines: Even airline employees are having trouble finding a seat home from Europe this summer | C
Fitness: Peloton slashing 780 jobs, closing stores and hiking prices in push to turn profit | C

Technology
China’s Computer Chips Are Down | W

Beyond markets
Monkeypox Virus: WHO Asks Public to Submit New Name Ideas in Online Portal | B

wiar 08-12-22

MFwebsite2020researchAugust 13, 2022What I Am Reading

August 12 (Friday)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 8.

Markets
Stock Rally Fades as Investors Weigh Next Steps on Inflation | W
The Market’s Peak Inflation Story Fights the Fed | W
OPEC Cuts Oil-Demand Forecasts as Economic Growth Slows | W

US
Column: Deep U.S. curve inversion hastens the recession it predicts | R
U.S. Supplier Inflation Logs Slowest Pace Since Last Fall | W
Gas prices are falling — Here’s why it’s happening and whether it can continue | C
Inflation Cooled in July, Welcome News for White House and Fed | N
U.S. Home Prices Jumped to Record High in Second Quarter | W
US Mortgage Rates Swing Back Up, Hitting 5.22% in Volatile Market | B
Inflation, Soaring Rent Prices From Miami to Las Vegas Has Americans Struggling | B

China
The Bursting Chinese Housing Bubble Compounds Beijing’s Economic Woes | W

Industries & companies
Energy: How high energy prices are making things better this summer | The Hill
Media: Disney is raising prices, but this time, don’t blame inflation | C

Geopolitics & trade
Xi Sought to Send Message to Biden on Taiwan: Now Is No Time for a Crisis | W
EU Proposes Significant Concession to Iran to Revive Nuclear Deal | W

Beyond markets
New Langya virus infects 35 people in China
Covid: CDC eases guidance as U.S. has more tools to fight the virus | C
U.S. CDC no longer recommends students quarantine for COVID-19 exposure | R

wiar 08-10-22

MFwebsite2020researchAugust 10, 2022What I Am Reading

August 10 (Wednesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Earnings & Productivity
Why are industry analysts now slashing the estimates they had raised throughout the year’s first half (even as the economy slowed)? … Why has productivity growth dropped to its weakest y/y rate since 1947? Is it simply returning to its pre-pandemic trendline? … Why has household formation suddenly rebounded? … How did landlords get so lucky as to find themselves in a “Golden Age”? … Today, we explain these economic anomalies, aided by recent data releases. … Also: With the economy in a growth recession and forward earnings starting to flatten, the valuation-led stock market rally might sputter for a while.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 8.

Markets
Tech Stocks Lead Market Lower as Investors Await Inflation Data | W
Strategists Under the Same Roof Clash on Stock Market Before US CPI Data | B
U.S. Lawmakers Look to Digital Dollar to Compete With China | W

US I
How This Economic Moment Rewrites the Rules | N
Rapid Wage Growth Keeps Pressure on U.S. Inflation | W
Eggs Prices in US Jump 47% as Food Inflation Soars, IRI Says | B
U.S. Productivity Falls for Second Straight Quarter | W
With 87,000 new agents, here’s who the IRS may target for audits | C

US II
Congress needs to take its role in inflation seriously | The Hill
Biden needs to stop stock trading in Congress | MSNBC
FBI Search of Trump Property Prompted by Concerns Over Sensitive Documents | W

Geopolitics & trade
War between China and Taiwan would create global chaos | Washington Times
War Game Finds U.S., Taiwan Can Defend Against a Chinese Invasion | W
U.S. Solar Shipments Are Hit by Import Ban on China’s Xinjiang Region | W

Industries & companies
Autos: Ford increasing price of electric F-150 Lightning | C

Technology
Chip Makers Expect Demand Slowdown to Expand Beyond PCs, Smartphones | W

Beyond markets
FDA Adopts Policy to Stretch Monkeypox Vaccine Supplies | W
U.S. allows alternate monkeypox vaccine injection method to boost supply | R

wiar 08-09-22

MFwebsite2020researchAugust 9, 2022What I Am Reading

August 09 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Around The World
Zooming out to assess big-picture data for major global economies, we conclude that Germany and China look most vulnerable to a recession next year. The US wouldn’t be immune to a global recession, but certain factors help insulate it. These include heavy capital inflows resulting from foreign investors’—correct—perception that US financial markets offer the safest harbor there is. Overweighting the US in global portfolios remains prudent. … Also: Germany’s economy faces duress this winter as heating the country becomes a challenge, and China’s economy is suffering at the hands of homegrown problems related to housing, lockdowns, and demographics.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 8.

Markets
S&P 500 and Nasdaq slip to start the week as Nvidia warning puts brakes on market rally | C
Wall Street muted on mixed inflation messages | R
U.S. Lawmakers Look to Digital Dollar to Compete With China | W

Central banks
Consumers expect inflation to slow down, a big win for the Fed | C

Energy
What Germans Know About Nuclear Power | W

US
Economist: Inflation Reduction Act won’t curb inflation short-term | C
The Houdinis of Carried Interest | W
What carried interest is, and how it benefits high-income taxpayers | C
The Inflation Reduction Act would double IRS agents and audits — but superrich aren’t real targets | P
Reconciliation bill includes nearly $80 billion for IRS funding | C
Opinion | Bill Gates: A Clean Energy Future is in the Hands of Congress | N
Hiring Gets Easier for Some Employers Despite Hot Job Market | W
The inflation problem nobody is talking about | Washington Examiner

Geopolitics & trade
Biden ‘concerned’ as China extends military drills around Taiwan | R
Apple tells suppliers to use ‘Taiwan, China’ or ‘Chinese Taipei’ to appease Beijing
Opinion | Chinese Ambassador Qin Gang: Pelosi’s Taiwan visit was irresponsible | WP
Attacks at Ukraine Nuclear Plant Are Suicidal, U.N. Chief Warns | W
What’s the plan to counter Russia’s energy squeeze? | The Hill

Industries & companies
Aerospace: Boeing Dreamliner deliveries to resume in the ‘coming days,’ FAA says | C
Consumer: Tyson Foods Says Consumers Shifting Away From Higher-Priced Beef | W

Technology
Baidu Secures China’s First Ever Permits for Commercial Fully Driverless Robotaxi Services
100 Vehicles Catch fire in Delhi’s Electric Vehicle Charging Station – India
Hundreds of new mines required to meet 2030 battery metals demand | IEA report

Corporate finance
Flush with cash, Pfizer buys Global Blood Therapeutics in $5.4 bln deal | R

Beyond markets
Central Planning Fails Just As Much When Conservatives Are the Planners | FO

wiar 08-08-22

MFwebsite2020researchAugust 8, 2022What I Am Reading

August 08 (Monday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: No Recession In Labor Market
July’s surprisingly strong payroll employment report points to a strong July reading for the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators. This is good news for the economy, bad news for the fixed-income market, and mixed news for the stock market. While it squashes near-term recession fears, it ups prospective Fed hawkishness. … Within the labor market, there is unprecedented churn as people quit in record numbers for higher-paying positions elsewhere. Over half the workers in July’s employment report were hired over the past year! But consumer prices are spiraling upward along with wages, so even job-jumpers aren’t seeing much wage growth after adjusting for inflation
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 1.

Markets
Investors Brace for More Market Volatility as Earnings Estimates Slump | W
How to Protect Yourself From Another Stock Market Plunge | BR

Central banks
Fed Governor Bowman sees ‘similarly sized’ rate hikes ahead after three-quarter point moves | C
The Fed Is About to Ramp Up Balance-Sheet Shrinkage. It May Get Dicey. | BR
Why We Expect the Fed to Cut Interest Rates in 2023 | Morningstar
Rate Hikes Are Not the Right Answer to “Wage-Price Persistence” by James K. Galbraith | PS
What the 1980s Can Teach Us About Interest Rates and Inflation | N

Global
Weak Growth, Tight Job Markets Are a Global Phenomenon | W
The silver linings of a recession | E
Food Price Inflation Imposing Heavy Burden on Poorer Countries | W

US
Job Boom Means No Recession and Boosts Pressure for Rate Hikes | BR
Has the Recession Started? The Labor Market Says No. | BR
A shortfall in immigration has become an economic problem for America | E
Democrats’ big climate, health care and tax package clears major Senate hurdle | C

Europe
The EU agrees on an energy diet to fight Russian gas cuts | E
France’s nuclear plants are going down for repairs | E
Italy’s next government may be more nationalist than Europe likes | E

China
China’s War Games Showcase New Tools to Intimidate Taiwan | W
Column: China’s U.S. ag imports soar to new highs in 2022, but volumes vary | R

Geopolitics & trade
Chinese and Taiwanese warships shadow each other as drills due to end | R
After agreeing to let Ukraine export grain, Russia rockets its port | E

Industries & companies
Industrials: Buy GE Stock as a Breakup Looms | BR
Media: Advertising Slowdown Spreads Beyond Tech Giants to Hit TV Networks, Publishers | W
Media: Netflix may be missing an opportunity in horror movies | C
Pharma: Republicans block cap on insulin costs for many Americans from Democratic deal | C
Real Estate: Blackstone’s Giant Real Estate Fund Faces a Test | BR
Restaurants: Consumers are cutting back on restaurant spending, but CEOs say not all chains are affected | C
Tech: Direct-to-Consumer Sales Are Fueling Supply-Chain Tech Growth | W
Tech: The era of big-tech exceptionalism may be over | E

Corporate finance
CVS Plans to Bid for Signify Health | W

Beyond markets
America’s response to monkeypox has been underwhelming | E

wiar 08-06-22

MFwebsite2020researchAugust 6, 2022What I Am Reading

August 06 (Saturday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Emerging Markets, Oil Refiners & Nuclear Power Plants
Today, Jackie takes us on a quick world tour focusing on emerging economies. Many are ailing, but a few offer a safe haven from geopolitical storms. So does the US with its strong dollar, huge economy, and relatively calm body politic. … Also: Oil refiners had a stellar Q2 operating at near maximum capacity to meet surging demand. The industry is on track for another year of eye-popping revenues and earnings growth. … And in the disruptive technologies department, we highlight the potential of SMRs—small modular (nuclear) reactors.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 1.

Markets
S&P 500, Nasdaq fall Friday, but notch weekly gains after blowout July jobs report | C
YOLO Stock Market Bulls Say Wake Me When Fed Tightening Starts to Bite | B
U.S. Treasury yields: nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, Fed, recession | C

Central banks
Larry Summers Warns Fed on 1970s-Style Mistake With CPI Set to Slow | B

US I
The U.S. economy has yet to face its biggest recession challenge | C
July Jobs Report: U.S. Added 528,000 New Jobs as Unemployment Rate Fell to 3.5% | W
Here’s where the jobs are for July 2022 — in one chart | C
Workers in these two industries are the only ones coming out ahead right now | NN
US Consumer Borrowing Jumps by More Than $40 Billion, Second-Most Ever | B

US II
Yes, It’s a Strong Jobs Report, but July Probably Overstates the Case | Morningstar
Jobs Report Bolsters Biden’s Message, but Inflation Makes Economy a Hard Sell | W
Democrats Trade One Bad Tax Increase for Another | W
Lower Gas Prices Threatened by Fuel Makers’ Limitations | W

Geopolitics & trade
China Steps Up Military, Diplomatic Warnings Over Taiwan | W
China halts military, climate dialogue with U.S. over Pelosi Taiwan trip | R

Industries & companies
Autos: U.S. automakers say 70% of EV models would not qualify for tax credit under Senate bill | R
Retail: The Hot New Trend for Gucci and Chanel: Middle America | W

Corporate finance
Amazon to acquire iRobot, maker of Roomba vacuums | C
Pfizer in Advanced Talks to Buy Global Blood Therapeutics for About $5 Billion | W

Beyond markets
Health Authorities Issue New Advice for Avoiding Monkeypox | W
DeepMind’s AlphaFold could be the future of science and AI | Vox

wiar 08-05-22

MFwebsite2020researchAugust 5, 2022What I Am Reading

August 05 (Friday)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 1.

Markets
Stocks Close Mixed as Earnings Roll In | W
What this ‘play the recovery’ strategy says about hot bond demand | C
Oil languishes on recession fears; unconcerned stocks climb on | R

US
U.S. Jobless Claims Rose Last Week to Near High for Year | W
Job growth was likely strong in July, but it could slow soon | C
Mortgage Rates Drop Below 5% for First Time Since April | W
The inflation and price increases that broke us, from groceries to gas | Vox
Cost of Democrats’ Corporate-Tax Increase Skews to Wealthy, Reaches Middle Class | W
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema signs off on Democrats’ big agenda bill, paving the way for Senate passage | C
Democrats Revise Climate Package to Strike Deal With Sen. Kyrsten Sinema | W

Geopolitics & trade
China’s Drills Around Taiwan Give Hint About Its Strategy | W
U.S. Delays Minuteman III Missile Test Amid Tensions Over Taiwan | W
Biden orders aircraft carrier to stay in South China Sea, but delays ICBM test | C
Three grain ships set to leave Ukraine; NATO chief says Russia must not win | R
Winter in Europe May Be Springtime for Putin | W
North Korea ‘paves the way’ for more nuclear tests, U.N. report says | R

Industries & companies
Airlines: Airlines cancel, reroute flights during Chinese military drills near Taiwan | R
Materials: The world’s top coal trader is cashing in on the Ukraine war — Quartz (qz.com)

Corporate finance
Companies From Google to Pepsi Are Boosting Capital Spending | W

Beyond markets
What Remote Work Debate? They’ve Been Back at the Office for a While. | N
U.S. declares monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency | R
Great Barrier Reef areas show highest coral cover seen in 36 years | C

wiar 08-04-22

MFwebsite2020researchAugust 4, 2022What I Am Reading

August 04 (Thursday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: US Earnings & European Gas
Industry analysts finally have begun reining in their high earnings, revenues, and profit margin expectations. Their moves suggest that analysts collectively expect inflation to moderate but don’t anticipate a recession. … Also: Europe may face a cold, dark winter—literally and economically—if Russia doesn’t restore the natural gas flows to Europe that the EU depends on. Melissa presents a timeline of Russia’s gas-depriving moves and the responses from government and gas futures markets. … And: Soaring energy prices are dampening European consumer and business sentiment, boding ill for GDP growth and corporate earnings prospects. The only EMU MSCI sector with unscathed earnings growth expectations is Energy.
(subscribers’ link)

YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 1.

Markets
Stocks End Higher on Earnings, Services Data | W

Energy
Gas Prices Have Fallen for 50 Straight Days, Approach $4 a Gallon | W
Russian Oil Cap Push Faces Doubts From Energy, Finance Industry | W
Nuclear Power Plants Could Stay Open, Says Germany | W

Central banks
Federal Reserve rate hikes could be worse than inflation for the economy | MSNBC
Fed Officials Signal Additional Rate Rises Warranted to Slow Economy | W

US
Consumer debt tops $16 trillion as inflation fuels credit card surge | NN
Tech companies, banks overstaffed, while airlines, hotels need workers | C
Cost of Democrats’ Corporate-Tax Increase Skews to Wealthy, Reaches Middle Class | W
Manchin-Schumer Bill Gets CBO Nod for $102 Billion Deficit Cut | B
Manchin Deal Tosses $30 Billion Lifeline to US Nuclear | B

China
China Real Estate Market: Mortgage Boycott May Spur Multi-Billion Dollar Rescue | B
China’s Property Crisis Threatens to Drag Down Steel Industry | yahoo.com

Geopolitics & trade
Pelosi lauds Taiwan, says China’s fury cannot stop visits by world leaders | R
As Pelosi Leaves Taiwan, China’s Military Looms Larger | W
To understand China’s Pelosi rage, consider a Civil War analogy | Washington Examiner
Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan makes matters worse for U.S. and China relations | C
Big Tech Is the West’s Surprise Weapon in Competition With Russia, China | W
With eye on Russia, U.S. Senate backs Finland and Sweden’s joining NATO | R

Industries & companies
Autos: Chip makers have a message for car makers: Your turn to pay | R
Autos: EV Maker Lucid Cuts Production Outlook in Half | W
Media: Netflix Is Scrambling to Learn the Ad Business It Long Disdained | W
Retail: Walmart Lays Off Hundreds of Corporate Workers | W

Climate
US West, Already in Drought, Is Facing Dwindling Snowpacks | B

Technology
Battery Streak Aims to Change How Electric Vehicles Run | dot.LA

Beyond markets
Richard Clarida Returns to Pimco After Fed Cleared Him in Trading Probe | B
U.S. regulators defend requiring more data on monkeypox drug | R