August 15 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Waiting For Godot
Today, we sift through the recent economic data and recent Fed head chatter for clues to the critical question: Now that recession fears have abated for 2022, what are the odds of one in 2023? … We give 60% odds to a slow-growth scenario, with GDP growing 1.5% in H2-2022 and 2.5% in 2023; 35% odds to a recession next year precipitated by the Fed’s inflation battle; and 5% odds to a boom scenario. … Critical to the recession question is whether inflation is peaking. We think so but need to see more evidence to be sure. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Elvis” (+ + +).
(subscribers’ link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on August 8.
Markets
Earnings Season Is Over. The Stock Market’s Gains Won’t Come Easy Now. | BR
Market Rebound Draws Wary Eye From Some Investors | W
Wall Street, Like the Climate Bill, Bets on Both Green Energy and Fossil Fuels | W
Short-sellers are struggling despite a bad year for stocks | E
These Funds Hold Just 1 Bond. Why They’re Revolutionary. | BR
Climate-plus bill
The Climate Bill Is About to Reshape Global Energy. Here’s How to Invest. | BR
Inflation Reduction Act: House passes massive climate, tax and health bill | C
America’s climate-plus spending bill is flawed but essential | E
Drug-Price Rules for Seniors Change With Passage of Climate and Health Bill | W
US
This was a good week for inflation numbers, but whether it can last is the big question | C
Consumers Are Still Spending on Fun | W
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improved in August From Early Summer Low | W
Rent Prices Are Climbing Fast. What’s Happening—and How Much More It Could Rise. | BR
Labor Shortage Is Vexing Challenge for U.S. Economy | W
China
China’s mortgage boycotts are a symptom of a broader crisis | E
An Interview With Allianz Global’s China Expert Virginie Maisonneuve | BR
Industries & companies
Pharma: Buy Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk Stock. Their Weight-Loss Drugs—and Their Shares—Could Take Off. | BR
Technology
Faster Internet Is Coming to America—as Soon as the Government Knows Where to Build It | W
Geopolitics & trade I
China’s huge exercises around Taiwan were a rehearsal, not a signal, says Oriana Skylar Mastro | E
Xi Jinping may attack Taiwan to secure his legacy, warn Admiral Lee Hsi-min and Eric Lee | E
How to prevent a war between America and China over Taiwan | E
Geopolitics & trade II
Thanks to Vladimir Putin, Germany has woken up | E
Why isn’t Russia blocking GPS in Ukraine? | E
Ukraine Accuses Russia of Using Nuclear Plant to Blackmail West | W
First ship carrying Ukraine wheat under UN deal docks in Turkey | R