In his press conference today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told financial market participants that today’s 25bps cut in the federal funds rate (FFR) might not be followed by another one on December 10, when the FOMC votes on monetary

Shares ofNokia soared by 23% today after the telecom equipment provider announced a billion-dollar partnership with artificial intelligence (AI) giant Nvidia. As part of the deal, Nvidia plans to invest $1 billion in Nokia in exchange for a 2.9% stake in the

Today was just another day in the stock market. The S&P 500 rose to another record high of 6875.16. Also closing at record highs were the Nasdaq, the DJIA, and the Russell 2000. Been there, done it! More record highs are

The week ahead will see central banks commanding the spotlight as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England weigh in on both interest rates and the balance of economic risks.  All eyes will be on

The major stock market indexes rocketed to new record highs on Friday. We are raising the odds of a meltup from 25% to 30%, reducing the odds of our bullish base-case scenario from 55% to 50%, while leaving the

The government shutdown continues to shut off the supply of many economic indicators. Tomorrow’s CPI inflation rate for September is an exception. It is widely expected to remain stuck at 3.0% on a y/y basis. Based on a few

A few weeks ago, we observed a bubble in fears of a bubble. The fearmongers see an “everything bubble” that will soon burst. The expression “the bubble in everything” began gaining traction during the tenure of Federal Reserve Chair

China’s economy is struggling with excessive debt, deflation, excess capacity, and a rapidly aging population. China continues to rely on exports to support economic growth. China has been increasingly accused of dumping its excess production in world markets. This

Apple’s stock price hit a new record high today on a report that sales of this year’s iPhone models had started strongly. Shares of the tech giant climbed 3.9%, closing at $262.24 and helping the company surpass Microsoft to

We’re entering yet another week of limited visibility on the economy thanks to the government shutdown. This leaves markets attempting to fill the statistical void with private surveys, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and the odd corporate report to

We’ve been monitoring the relationship between the S&P 500’s ytd performance versus its comparable average of the past 10 years (chart). This year, the index has been much more volatile than the average and has outperformed the average by about five percentage points since

“When you see one cockroach, there are probably more,” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said on the company’s earnings conference call earlier this week in relation to the First Brands and Tricolor Holdings fallout. These are two auto-related companies that have recently declared bankruptcy.

We first began writing about our Roaring 2020s scenario in 2020. So far, so good. Both the S&P 500 and the price of gold have been roaring ahead to new record highs this year (chart). We wouldn’t be surprised

Go Global has outperformed Stay Home so far this year. Based on FTSE data, the US stock market index (up 11.8% ytd) has underperformed the World index (13.4%) so far this year in local currency (chart). Its underperformance has

As the latest episode of the “Trump versus Xi” series airs this week, it’s perhaps fitting that the shuttered US government won’t be releasing most key data for September. What happened last month, after all, may matter little if the two biggest economies