“The Architects of AI” are this year’s TIME Person of the Year. We asked Google’s Gemini, “Can you list when the front cover of TIME featuring Person of the Year has turned out to be a curse?” Gemini responded as follows: “While TIME Magazine maintains

As widely expected, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25 bps today. It has lowered the FFR by 75bps since September of this year. Since the start of the current easing cycle in September 2024, this rate has

I. Walmart Goes Nasdaq On Sunday, we wrote, “In effect, our spin is that every company is evolving into a technology company.” Today, Walmart transferred its primary listing to the technology-heavy Nasdaq from the New York Stock Exchange, where

Have you heard? The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%. That would be a 175bps cut in the FFR since the Fed

Obviously, this week is all about the Fed’s big interest-rate decision (Wed); the policymakers are expected almost universally to cut rates 25bps for a third time this year. The immediate focus will be on the composition of the FOMC’s

It no longer makes much sense for us to continue recommending overweighting the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors in an S&P 500 portfolio, as we have since 2010. The same can be said about overweighting the United States

The stock market has lost its mojo recently. The S&P 500 has been hovering around 6800 since late November. It did recover nicely from a November 20 low of 6538. But the rebound since then has failed to lift the

There are lots of confusing recent developments for stock investors to consider. The economic indicators are mixed, with some justifying a December 10 rate cut by the Fed, others not. President Donald Trump said he will announce his pick for

We do not have an opinion on bitcoin because we don’t have any way to value it. It has been widely called “digital gold.” We’ve previously described bitcoin as “digital tulips.” That makes us sound bearish since the famous

With the odds of a December Fed rate cut starting the week at 86% (according to CME FedWatch), the Fed and investors alike probably wish more hard economic data were hitting the tape. Ten days ahead of the most anticipated

Santa’s back. During the past week, the S&P 500 recovered most of what it lost the week before when it was knocked down hard by the plunge in bitcoin and by fears that the AI bubble-bursting story was true,

We are thankful for your interest in our research. Happy Thanksgiving! Now that the government shutdown is over, there is plenty of data again with which to assess the economy’s performance. On balance, GDP growth remains robust despite lackluster

At the start of November, we expected a pullback in the stock market because the Bull-Bear Ratio we monitor indicated too many bulls. That’s bearish from a contrarian perspective. Could the pullback be over already? It might be if

During this holiday-shortened week, investors will receive a cornucopia of data now that the government is open again. Some of the data will be a bit stale. But they should indicate how Q3 ended for the economy. September’s retail

The S&P 500 is back on a slower track than the fast track it was on since April 9 until the end of October. It no longer is outpacing its average year-to-date performance over the past 10 years (chart).