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Morning Briefing Bullet Points & Chart Collections

2022

Jan 20, 2022

Meta’s Foes
(1) Throwing the book at Meta. (2) Meta keeps regulators around the world busy. (3) FTC antitrust case allowed to proceed. (4) Congress wants Meta and Big Tech to end anticompetitive practices and protect children. (5) State attorneys general target Meta too. (6) UK regulator requires Meta to sell Giphy. (7) EU considers the Digital Markets Act. (8) Lawsuit aims to sidestep Section 230. (9) Microsoft’s Activision deal should boost revenue and increase its gaming content. (10) Race to fill the metaverse with content. (11) Metaverse “land” prices skyrocket. (12) Walmart appears ready to jump into the metaverse, too.

A Very Brief US History Of the Postwar 1940s
(1) Winston Churchill and Mark Twain on history. (2) The best of times or the worst of times? (3) Factions, partisanship, and the Constitution. (4) The system works best when it doesn’t work for any one faction. (5) WWII was followed by labor strife, racial strife, and a red scare. (6) Inflation soared during the second half of 1940s. (7) Comparative inflations. (8) Meet Joe Manchin, again. (9) Sinema is in the same opposition party as Manchin. (10) Alternative outcomes for BBB.

Mega Valuation
(1) The valuation question, especially about the MegaCap-8. (2) Buffett Ratio off the charts. (3) Forward P/S well exceeds forward P/E because forward profit margin has been rising to new record highs. (4) MegaCap-8 forward P/S and forward P/E are elevated, but so are their margins relative to the rest of S&P 500. (5) Only three MegaCap-8 stocks are in tech sector of S&P 500. (6) Record worldwide demand for semiconductors. (7) US computer output at record high. (8) A whiff of stagflation last week. (9) Omicron less lethal, but spreads faster and disrupts business. (10) Retail sales weakness should be offset by inventory restocking. (11) Durable goods inflation not likely to persist, while rent inflation could do so. (12) Movie review: “Ray Donovan: The Movie” (+ + +).

Financials, China, and Wireless Charging
(1) Higher interest rates boosting Financials. (2) Commercial and investment bank stocks at or near highs. (3) Jefferies’ earnings disappointment spooks market. (4) Could SPACs be to blame? (5) China roiled by Covid shutdowns. (6) The push for Olympic blue skies disrupts plants in northern China. (7) China’s property developers still digging out from debt. (8) Keeping an eye on hypersonic missile developments in China and North Korea. (9) Pulling the plug on electricity outlets. (10) Wireless electricity transmission at home, in space, at the office, and on the road.

Earnings Season Starting
(1) Latest earnings reports should beat expectations again. (2) Real Q4 GDP tracking at 6.8%. (3) S&P 500 forward earnings at another record high. (4) Our latest forecasts for S&P 500 earnings and the stock price index. (5) Profit margins likely to stall at record high. (6) Consumers shopped and borrowed at solid paces during Q4. (7) Homebuilders seeing demand and raising prices. (8) US petroleum usage at record high. (9) Financials boosting profits by reducing loan-loss reserves. (10) Industrials experiencing record new orders, especially for capital goods. (11) Global M&A likely to continue to boom in 2022.

Is the Party Ending Or Just Moving?
(1) Drinking the Fed’s punch. (2) Party getting out of hand. (3) Fed will soon stop filling up the punch bowl, but there will be lots of liquidity left in there. (4) Inflation spiked by spiked punch. (5) FOMC minutes’ talk about paring Fed’s balance sheet shocks investors. (6) Bond Vigilantes no longer punch drunk? (7) Expected inflation is up, but prices-paid index is down. (8) Are rising bond yields so bearish for Growth? (9) No, but they are bullish for Financials. (10) Mag-8 accounts for almost 50% of Growth’s market cap. (11) When in doubt, diversify with Energy, Financials, and the Mag-8.

The Markets, the Fed, and Jobs
(1) Investors discounting more hawkish Fed. (2) A week of rotation from Growth to Value. (3) Growth P/E down, Value up. (4) Lots of chatter, again, about a great rotation. (5) Stay away from disruptive hyped-up tech stocks. (6) FOMC agrees: “Transitory” is out, “persistent” is in until further notice. (7) Discussing normalization. (8) Powell mentioned paring Fed’s balance sheet late last year. (9) Labor market is booming. (10) More full-time jobs replacing part-time ones. (11) Real wage rate stalls at record high. (12) Alternative wage measures. (13) Movie review: “King Richard” (+).

All Things Tech
(1) Checking out CES, virtually. (2) Autos are the new tech. (3) Semis introduce new chips as global sales keep climbing. (4) Check out Gallium’s new AR headset, an app for dog nose prints, and a digital frame for your NFTs. (5) Tech had a great 2021, but a rough start to 2022. (6) A look ahead at Tech industries’ earnings estimates. (7) SenseTime—China’s Google—is spreading around the world. (8) SenseTime’s facial recognition and AI expedite purchasing, fight Covid-19, and make cars smarter. (9) China may also be using it to track the country’s Muslim minority. (10) SenseTime’s shares rally after Hong Kong IPO.

Covid-19, Mag-8, And FOMC-19
(1) Powell’s pivot on inflation puts contrarians on alert. (2) Alternative bets. (3) M-PMI prices-paid index recedes. (4) Omicron and done? (5) The fastest-spreading virus on record. (6) The wild brushfire analogy for optimists. (7) Milder symptoms. (8) Herd immunity, here we come? (9) Cases soaring in US and Europe. (10) The Magnificent 8 were magnificent again in 2021. They might be again in 2022. (11) Growth isn’t cheap. (12) Rearranging the deck chairs on the USS FOMC. (13) Biden likely to choose more progressives to fill Fed vacancies. (14) Meet Sarah Raskin.

Bonds Have More Fun With Old People
(1) Enlightening students about “entrepreneurial capitalism.” (2) Will bond market conundrum persist in 2022? (3) Two-year Treasury note anticipating three rate hikes this year. (4) Gravitational pull of near-zero yields in Germany and Japan. (5) Bearish indicators for bonds remain bearish. (6) Age Wave remains bullish for bonds. (7) Chronic labor shortages should stimulate productivity. (8) Bond funds had record inflows in 2021! (9) Will the worst S&P 500 industries in 2021 be among the best in 2022? (10) Last year was another good year for Stay Home investors. So should be 2022.

Happy 2022!
(1) Santa outpunched the two Grinches. (2) Omicron spreading like wildfire, and could burn out quickly. (3) Biden hands the pandemic back to state governors. (4) The Fed should be done tapering by March. (5) Whose afraid of 75bps? (6) Yield curve says don’t fight the bond market. (7) Santa’s earnings-led meltup. (8) Fewer kinks in supply chain. (9) Lots of booming economic indicators. (10) Plenty of liquidity, which is more liquid than it was before the pandemic. (11) The case against Volcker 2.0. (12) Durable goods prices soaring after deflating for many years. (13) Rent inflation will remain troublesome. (14) Inflation may be peaking according to regional business surveys. (15) Movie review: “Being the Ricardos” (+ +).