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Morning Briefing Bullet Points & Chart Collections

2017

Fireworks
(1) Lots of bucks per bang. (2) Wickedly awesome IPOs. (3) Biotech returns with healthy returns. (4) More Tech IPOs. (5) Not much energy in Energy. (6) Buybacks drown new issues. (7) Banks pass Fed’s stress test and reward investors with dividend hikes and buybacks. (8) Tech should rebound after some profit taking. (9) World semiconductor sales at record high.

The Third Mandate
(1) Fed officials need our attention. (2) Four rate hikes later, no tightening tantrum. (3) Stock and bond investors responding to Fed with benign neglect. (4) Bond yield, yield curve, and expected inflation all telling Fed “no mas.” (5) Fed should fear that halting rate hikes will send stocks to the moon. (6) Melt-ups are not conducive to financial stability. (7) Williams, Fischer, Yellen all weigh in on the subject. (8) The Fed’s “great unwinding” is winding down the road. (9) Furniture sales on flying carpet.

Puzzling Productivity & Profitability
(1) Oomph and Oompah in Germany. (2) Lots of reasons why productivity should be growing faster. (3) Technology goes from replacing brawn to brain. (4) Is that good or bad for productivity? (5) Amazon Web Services and UBER reducing demand for servers and autos. (6) Record-high profit margin belies productivity funk. (7) Stagnation is a myth: Real pay is growing. (8) Powerful forces keeping a lid on price inflation. (9) Nonfinancial corporations have lots of cash and are spending it on capex, not just buybacks.

A Matter of Some Interest
(1) Republicans want to eliminate interest expensing, while granting 100% capital spending deduction. (2) Tax code favors leveraged balance sheets. (3) Dividends plus buybacks eating up earnings, but plenty of cash flow left for capex. (4) Tax subsidy worth $5.90 per share for S&P 500. (5) Record bond refinancing boosted profits over the past year. (6) Dividend yield valuation model shows stocks cheap relative to bonds. (7) Japan is the poster child for a geriatric society. (8) Japan’s self-extinction by the numbers. (9) From extended families to one Carebot. (10) Basic Universal Income vs. Basic Fertility Income. (11) Make babies for fun and profit.

Voluntary Self-Extinction
(1) Meet Les U. Knight, who wishes for less humankind. (2) Birth dearth is depressing labor forces around the world. (3) Fertility tends to be higher on farms than in cities. (4) Crop of kids easier and cheaper to grow outside of city limits. (5) Green Revolution on balance depressed population growth. (6) Malthus got it so wrong. (7) Chinese government’s 2-child policy may be undercut by previous 1-child policy. (8) There is still fertile soil in India and Africa. (9) US leading indicators still bullish on real GDP, which is likely to remain stuck growing around 2.0%. (10) NBx2 again. (11) Movie Review: “My Cousin Rachel” (+).

Sheik Up
(1) Opaque oil: Hard to see higher prices. (2) S&P 500 Energy is dead last so far this year. (3) US, Libya, and Nigeria are offsetting OPEC’s production cuts. (4) Tanks and tankers filled to the brim with crude. (5) Saudis give more power to a young sheik. (6) Saudi Vision 2030 plan aims to diversify economy away from oil. (7) Oil weighs less on S&P 500. (8) Saudis selling the family’s jewel. (9) Cheers for S&P 500 Restaurants.

Earnings Boom
(1) Among the weakest economic expansions, weighed down by both consumer and business spending. (2) The Trauma of 2008 was traumatizing. (3) No boom, no bust: Only 25 months to go to make this the longest expansion. (4) Profits performance remarkably good considering weakness in nominal GDP. (5) Profit margins still aren’t reverting. (6) There is a boom in our Boom-Bust Barometer, which remains bullish for earnings. (7) Forward earnings are flying high in numerous S&P 500 industries.

Second Thoughts
(1) Dealmakers sinking in the swamp. (2) Animal spirits remain mostly aroused. (3) Back to new normal real GDP growth. (4) Cruising along at 2%. (5) Citigroup Economic Surprise Index fluctuates. (6) Housing starts depressed by fewer DIYs. (7) Not-so-bad retail sales and production indicators. (8) Looking up in NY and Philly districts. (9) Record highs for forward revenues and earnings. (10) It all adds up to our No-Boom-No-Bust scenario, which remains bullish for stocks.

Wonder Men & Women
(1) Warrior women. (2) Jeff Bezos is Amazon Man. (3) A one-man inflation killer. (4) Elon Musk & Orphan Annie: The sun will come out tomorrow. (5) Frackers are freaking out OPEC. (6) Disinflation again. (7) Takeout food. (8) Oil’s slippery price slope. (9) Bonds signaling that inflation is dead in long run. (10) The Fed’s Wonder Woman. (11) Mr. Wonderful. (12) Movie Review: “Wonder Woman” (+ +).

Healthier
(1) Business sales suggest solid growth for S&P 500 revenues. (2) Inflation-adjusted retail sales showing a Q2 rebound. (3) Atlanta Fed raises Q2 real GDP to 3.2%. (4) Online shopping accounts for record 29.7% of GAFO sales. (5) Health Care getting out of bed. (6) Biotech and Managed Care looking especially fit. (7) Grocery war is heating up fast. (8) Consumers win as consumer staples brands lose.

Small Is Beautiful
(1) S&P 1500 is up $16.7 trillion since start of bull run. (2) Small companies have lots of employees. (3) Might small company hiring explain weak productivity? (4) Profits driving business cycle as profitable companies continue to expand payrolls and capacity. (5) Earnings of S&P 400/600 well outpacing S&P 500 earnings. (6) May survey finds small businesses’ earnings improving on balance. (7) Finding qualified applicants for job openings is a major challenge.

Tech Now & Then
(1) The life and death of bulls. (2) Matadors and recessions. (3) An aging bull that remains frisky. (4) Charge of the bullish brigade. (5) Tech now and in 1999/2000. (6) Beware of sectors with too much market cap. (7) Tech’s valuation and LTEG aren’t excessively high. (8) There’s lots of jalapenos in the salsa dip for chips. (9) Semiconductor forward earnings flying with worldwide sales.

White Swans
(1) Bullish chowder. (2) Frothy valuations. (3) Swamp sickness. (4) Betting on downsized Trump agenda. (5) Benchmark model pinpoints next recession in March 2019. (6) NBx2 scenario: No Boom, No Bust! (7) Price inflation is keeping a lid on wage inflation. (8) Are bond investors seeing less growth or less inflation or both? (9) Big Three central bank balance sheets remain ultra-easy, on balance. (10) Fed’s priority is probably to raise rates more before reducing balance sheet. (11) Update of quarterly valuation ratios shows mixed picture.

Beware of Fighting Elephants
(1) Proverbial elephants. (2) Clash of the titans: Amazon vs Walmart. (3) Food at home is over $900 billion industry. (4) Prime service for less-than-prime customers. (5) Food stamps for online groceries. (6) Playing ball with a big elephant. (7) Amazon banning CR*P products. (8) Consumer Staples: Paying up for safety. (9) Beer, cigarettes, and drugs.

All-Consuming Questions
(1) Running out of warm bodies? (2) Three measures of payrolls. (3) One job open for every jobless worker. (4) One-third of small businesses have jobs they can’t fill. (5) Half of small businesses say no qualified candidates for unfilled positions. (6) Wages should be up 3.0%-4.0% rather than 2.5%. (7) Vehicle miles traveled at record high. (8) Gasoline usage falling recently. (9) Has Trump’s “America First” pitch made America last for tourists?

Chirping Canaries
(1) Animal spirits still mostly animated. (2) Hard data remain soft. (3) Home in the range for the S&P 500. (4) Hannibal’s FAANG elephants leading the bulls to new heights. (5) Adding sentinel animals to the zoo. (6) Go Global beating Stay Home so far this year. (7) Solid global PMIs. (8) Lots of happy canaries in Europe and Asia. (9) Global trade growth picking up. (10) Asian exports also showing signs of life. (11) Forward earnings for major overseas MSCI indexes increasingly upbeat.

Hannibal Spirits
(1) Hannibal and his animals. (2) Climb every mountain. (3) Annual meeting of Bahre’s often bearish strategists. (4) Air is getting thin up here. (5) Record net inflows into equity ETFs, while equity mutual funds continue to hemorrhage. (6) White-hot FAANGs. (7) Earned Income Proxy at another record high. (8) Fewer labor force dropouts, a.k.a. NILFs. (9) Baby Boomers were careerists and materialists. Millennials are lifestylists and minimalists. (10) There’s more to life than money. (11) “Get Out” (+).

United Tech, Divided Transports
(1) FAANG and headless headlines. (2) 10 Bennies for 1 Amazon. (3) Amazon is in the wrong aisle. (4) Active managers overweighting FAANG. (5) Tech accounts for a bit more than a fifth of S&P 500 earnings and market-cap shares. (6) Dow Theory remains bullish. (7) Rails are back on fast track. (8) Airlines have lots of passengers they can drag off planes. (9) Trucking industry’s freight tonnage stalled at record high. (10) Truck prices falling.

A Memorable Earnings Season
(1) Seasonal drop, but y/y growth. (2) Forward earnings at record highs. (3) Tax cuts wading through the swamp. (4) Winning streak: Profit margin remains at record high. (5) A traumatic legacy. (6) Resource utilization rate still below previous cyclical peaks. (7) NBx2 scenario: No Boom, No Bust. (8) Double-digit earnings growth for S&P 500 Financials, IT, and Materials. (9) Revenue growth rising along with other measures of economic activity. (10) Aggregate vs per-share growth.

Steady Eddie
(1) Cruising at a safe speed. (2) Real GDP growth looks nice and steady on y/y basis. (3) GDP growth is higher excluding the government. (4) Steady, Fast, and Crazy Eddies. (5) Larry Summers says he told us so. (6) Demography is weighing on working-age population and labor force growth in US. (7) Age wave analysis shows younger workers growing faster. (8) Japan’s death cross. (9) Global trade indicators showing improving economic activity.

Fueled by Apple Juice
(1) The Great Race to be the Apple of the auto industry. (2) How much metal and rubber are in the code? (3) Ford: Hackett’s job as Fields put out to pasture. (4) Andreesen Pac Man Theory of software. (5) Who will be the Nokia of the auto industry? (6) Can we get Trump to pitch for YRI? (7) The best defense is more weapons for US allies. (8) Disappointing budget for US defense spending. (9) Bitcoin’s fans and fiends.

Global Synchronized Moderate Growth
(1) Wish for better earnings has come true. (2) S&P 1500 rising in record territory. (3) S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2018 high and dry. (4) S&P 500/400/600 all had upside earnings hooks during Q1 reporting season. (5) Altogether now. (6) A world of upbeat PMIs. (7) Real GDP tracking 2% in major economies. (8) Germany’s business confidence is soaring. (9) Aging is a drag on growth. (10) Less secular growth until further notice.

(A) Few Differences This Time?
(1) Not all valuation measures are flashing red. (2) Misery Index near previous cyclical lows. (3) Misery-adjusted forward P/E around its mean. (4) Rule of 20 no longer bullish. (5) Buffett isn’t giving much weight to his ratio. (6) Price-to-sales ratio awfully high. (7) Fed Model says stocks cheap compared to bonds. (8) China’s demography remains bullish for growth. (9) China’s population growth slows. (10) But China’s rural-to-urban migration continues apace.

Where Is This Leading?
(1) The latest panic attack lasted one day. (2) Keeping a diary of anxiety attacks. (3) VIX taking regular doses of Valium to stay calm. (4) Pills for the President. (5) One monthly and two weekly LEIs all at record highs. (6) CEI benchmark model sees next recession starting March 2019. (7) CEI confirming 2% trend growth in real GDP. (8) Resource Utilization Rate and LEI/CEI ratio are bullish for profit margin. (9) Yield curve signaling neither boom nor bust. (10) NY & Philly Fed surveys showing animal spirits remain spirited.

Fall from Grace
(1) Yesterday’s fall. (2) Seeking impeachable offenses. (3) Loose Lips Donald. (4) White House busy playing whack-a-mole all day. (5) Keeping targets for S&P, but swapping 2017 & 2018 for earnings. (6) Adam & Eve & Trump. (7) The Swamp of Eden. (8) Tech has been chosen for great things. (9) Software for the cloud. (10) Chips for the cloud.

Back in the Cage?
(1) Swamps, zoos, and Washington, D.C. (2) City slicker in White House doesn’t know much about swamps. (3) Less mojo in soft data, which are mostly holding onto post-election bounces. (4) Economic Surprise Index showing weaker-than-expected hard data. (5) Key rail and truck gauges have stalled. (6) Business loans rise to record high despite slow pace of growth. (7) Plenty of good news in earnings. (8) Smooth sailing for stocks in the swamp, so far.

US Underperforming
(1) Dipping vs. plunging offshore. (2) Go with the flows for now. (3) US fund flows can’t explain US underperformance. (4) Global investors must be bullish on global growth, and betting on it with cheaper foreign stocks. (5) Bullish on a world that can deal with gradual Fed tightening. (6) Overseas forward earnings turning up so far this year. (7) Too many eggs in Emerging Markets MSCI basket? (8) The case for actively managing an EM portfolio. (9) Fragile Five are less fragile now.

Death by Amazon
(1) Dropping anchors. (2) Piranhas like fresh water and red meat. (3) Reading the business obituaries. (4) Eating someone else’s lunch. (5) Amazon expanding C2B and moving into B2B. (6) Media man says Amazon is “ridiculously scary.” (7) Clothes on demand. (8) A deflationary cloud. (9) Death by Amazon is a spreading plague. (10) Bricks-and-mortar getting hammered in stock market. (11) Buffett, saying Amazon hurting IBM, cuts his position by 1/3. (12) Business demand for computers has been flat after AWS opened the cloud. (13) Movie review: “The Dinner” (- -).

On the Road Again
(1) Leaving home. (2) Time for fun. (3) Cruising for dollars. (4) Spending on lasting memories on the high seas. (5) More Asians with wanderlust. (6) The hotels are occupied. (7) Having magical days at the theme parks. (8) More CEOs talking about wage pressures. (9) Labor shortages. (10) Peak plastic? (11) India going from cash to mobile pay. (12) Selfie Pay: Look into my eye.

Outperforming
(1) Ka-ching: Equity ETF inflows at record high. (2) Double-digit gains for S&P 500/400/600 since Election Day. (3) Analysts see double-digit earnings growth in 2017 and 2018. (4) Significant upside hooks during Q1 earnings season. (5) Alpha, beta, and SmallCaps. (6) Buddy, can you spare some time (to work)? (7) Europe is hot, hot, hot. (8) Eurozone’s economic indicators are strong. (9) IMF recommends actively managing EM portfolios, and provides investment guidelines.

China Down
(1) Bulls and bears in china shop. (2) China’s credit tightening is #1 concern currently. (3) Chinese stocks mixed. (4) Chinese officials go to war against shadow banking system. (5) Are Wealth Management Products weapons of mass financial destruction? (6) Lots of yuan in grey areas. (7) Don’t trust entrusted investments. (8) Shadow banks account for almost 1/3 of “social financing.” (9) China isn’t as fragile as some fear. (10) Plenty of growth in exports and imports. (11) Capital outflows still a problem.

Bali Hai
(1) Bond Vigilantes Model too bearish on nominal GDP. (2) Ignore q/q real GDP. Focus on stronger y/y comps. (3) Variations on a theme: Lower-for-longer growth, no-boom-no-bust, inflation is dead. (4) FOMC says Q1 slowdown was temporary. (5) Welcome to Bali Hai, with ideal weather conditions for investors. (6) Just beware of the dormant volcano. (7) Wage and price inflation remain as calm as the trade winds on a South Pacific island. (8) Earned Income Proxy is smoking. (9) Storm clouds in the commodity pits? (10) Chinese officials pumping the brakes while stepping on accelerator.

Where Credit Is Due
(1) Coffee, tea, or plastic? (2) A flight with no fights. (3) Auto and student loans leading consumer credit to new highs. Revolving credit lagging. (4) Consumer delinquencies rising back to old normal. (5) No signs of trouble in debt-servicing ratio. (6) Dearth of deadbeats. (7) Payments processing is a great business. (8) But beware of the Great Disruptor. (9) Some cracks in commercial real estate’s foundation. (10) Want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge and get a free taxi medallion?

Seinfeld’s Market
(1) Jerry & George pitch a sitcom about nothing. (2) The Trauma of 2008 may be finally wearing off. (3) Counting anxiety attacks. (4) Fully invested bears are less panic prone. (5) Other than earnings rising, nothing much is happening for stock investors to get excited about one way or the other. (6) In case you missed them: Recent commotions in Greece, China, and Washington were largely ignored. (7) Breadth remains bullish. (8) Are the rich paying their fair share of taxes?

Rolling Recessions & Recoveries
(1) The long good buy. (2) The oil industry’s rolling recession has come and gone. (3) Texas and North Dakota are not the only oil-producing states. (4) Warehouse clubs, super-stores, and online retailers killing department stores. (5) The auto industry may be next on the disassembly line. (6) Another happy hook for another earnings season. (7) Broad-based earnings recovery. (8) Q1 consumer spending disappointing, but household formation is looking better. (9) Increase in households led by owner-occupiers rather than renters. (10) Record-high standard of living for average American household.

Hot Money
(1) Definitive definitions of meltdown and melt-up. (2) The numbers game. (3) Trump’s YUGE tax-cut plan cut from 3½ pages to 1 page. (4) Statutory vs effective corporate rates. (5) In my dreams: 15% tax rate on sole proprietorships. (6) Nervous about sky-high valuations, but even more nervous about missing more gains. (7) Equity ETF bubble continues to inflate. (8) Animal spirits a bit less spirited, but still high given softness in hard data. (9) Stocks’ pep rally led by spirited actual and expected earnings. (10) Movie review: “The Lost City of Z” (- -).

Earnings Boosting Stocks
(1) Nasdaq titans breach 6000. (2) Yet Industrials and Materials are leading April run in S&P 500 so far. (3) Beating expectations and raising guidance. (4) Finding more traction in the slippery oil patch. (5) CAT purring with Asian tigers. (6) Solstice: One of Honeywell’s sweet spots. (7) Are Millennials childish or adultish? (8) The basement suburban legend. (9) Education matters. Having children not so much.

Brain Drain
(1) Turing Test. (2) Tech’s latest Great Disruption: From brawn to brain. (3) Robots are easy-going, but will AI make them cranky? (4) AI at YRI. (5) Head in the Cloud. (6) The sinister goal of knowledge workers. (7) IT+R&D spending up from 26% to 44% of capital spending since 1981. (8) Consumers are spending more than business on computers, really. (9) Swamp vs Valley people. (10) The Great Disruptors want to read your mind with a quantum computer, while you are cruising in an electric flying car. (11) When taxing robots, beware of the one called “Spartacus.”

Minimalist Millennials
(1) Millennials are different than Baby Boomers. (2) Not rushing to get married. (3) Baby dearth. (4) Turn-ons and turn-offs. (5) Still renting. (6) Our in-house Millennial. (7) Cool experiences. (8) Lifestyles-of-the-rich-and-famous is so yesterday. (9) Cars are just cars. (10) Habitats for Hobbits. (11) An alternative way to be an adult.

Now, Voyager
(1) Team tours abroad. (2) Voyager now on Google Earth. (3) France: The more things change, the more they stay the same. (4) Commodity prices still trending higher. (5) High PMIs. (6) French and German shoppers are shopping. (7) Inflation disinflating again? (8) Overseas revenues and earnings growth rates rising. (9) Asian exports data showing widespread strength. (10) IMF raising rather than lowering growth outlook, for a change. (11) Bette Davis assesses the global economy.

Financials: Out of Favor Again?
(1) Bronx cheer. (2) C&I loans and flatter yield curve are turn-offs. (3) Net interest margins expanding. (4) Capital markets issuance boom may explain weakness in business loan demand. (5) No alarms about credit quality, even in auto loans, on bank conference calls. (6) Goldman was an outlier with a miss for a change. (7) S&P 500/400/600 forward revenues and earnings continue to rise in record territory.

Go With the Flows
(1) Fed provides lots of data about capital market flows. (2) Looking at US-based equity mutual funds and ETFs that invest in the US or around the world, we see big inflows to domestic ETFs since election. (3) World equity mutual funds and ETFs (based in US) were less popular last year. (4) Production is yet another weak indicator in auto industry’s soft patch. (5) Truck freight and sales stalled. (6) Economic Surprise Index is down. (7) Washington may have to respond sooner with fiscal stimulus, while the Fed can wait on next rate hike. (8) Chinese economy remains too dependent on government and debt.

The Trump Doctrine
(1) Eye on the prize. (2) Alternative leadership styles. (3) Obama vs. Trump Doctrines. (4) Geopolitics hasn’t shocked this bull market so far. (5) Might stocks stall if Trump puts Foreign Policy First, ahead of America First? (6) Mixing it up in Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, and North Korea. (7) Running out of strategic patience. (8) Trump has a few kind words for Yellen. (9) Auto industry is main soft patch in US economy. (10) China’s economy is doing a wheely, really.

Creative Destruction
(1) The headline stories that aren’t on front pages are important too. (2) Now that Fed is tightening, bull market in stocks feeds on earnings. (3) Thursdays are when we contemplate creative destruction throughout the US economy. (4) US economy continues to create more jobs than it destroys. (5) JOLTS and NFIB survey showing lots of unfilled job openings. (6) Apple is disrupting chip industry as it turns to making its own hardware. (7) Google’s TPU is another example of a software company making its own hardware. (8) Will Tesla clobber auto dealers the way Amazon is clobbering malls? (9) Spring is in the air for home prices as demand exceeds supply.

Back to the Future?
(1) Chauncey Gardner’s favorite season. (2) S&P 500 revenues and earnings are growing again. (3) Green shoots. (4) Forward revenues and earnings at record highs for S&P 500/400/600. (5) Industry analysts may be boosting 2018 estimates to reflect impact of Trumponomics. (6) A few downbeat hard-data indicators. (7) Back to slower, but longer growth? (8) Demography and technology did not change on Election Day. (9) The CBO’s estimate for potential real GDP growth at odds with Trump’s MAGA ambitions for economy. (10) Hard to Make America Young Again. (11) Both labor force and productivity growth weighing on economic growth. (12) Earnings remain on growth track for stock market.

DIY Fed Policy
(1) The old normal vs. the new abnormal for Fed policymaking. (2) Monetarism’s brief day in the sun. (3) Normalization now involves reducing an abnormally large balance sheet. (4) Learning-by-doing at the Fed. (5) Dudley and Yellen gang up on Taylor. (6) Taylor worked for Greenspan, then devised a linear equation to replace him. (7) Inflation and output gaps. (8) Atlanta Fed has an app for running monetary policy.

Over There & Over Here
(1) Getting around London town. (2) Fairly relaxed about both Brexit and Trump. (3) Not so relaxed about US stock valuation multiples. (4) Frexit would face a bigger constitutional challenge than did Brexit. (5) EMU looks cheaper than US MSCI now that forward earnings are improving in Eurozone. (6) A sector perspective shows that EMU may not be as cheap as it looks relative to US. (7) Employment still among strongest hard data, except for big job losses among retail stores. (8) Is Trump bringing back factory jobs already? (9) Fed getting ready to unwind balance sheet as securities purchased under QE mature. (10) Another reason to expect gradual rate hikes. (11) Movie Review: “Cézanne et Moi” (+).

The Shark & the Octopus
(1) Tesla worth more than Ford? (2) Elon’s stormy-weather tweet. (3) Tesla cruising along. (4) The auto mechanic will make house calls for electric cars. (5) Low P/Es for clunkers. (6) Amazon recruiting consumer staples companies to sell door to door. (7) Online sales almost 30% of GAFO. (8) Can Amazon improve on home-improvement retailers?

Across the Pond
(1) Worrying about US C&I loans in London. (2) Two significant soft patches in US economy. (3) Toxic fumes from subprime auto loans. (4) Used car prices falling, and so are new car sales. (5) M-PMI is soft data, but it’s upbeat. (6) Fed officials mostly predict two more rate hikes this year, with a couple seeing three. (7) One-and-done may be back on the table for 2017. (8) Fixed-income markets aren’t buying Fed’s hawkish talk.

Europe: Good Fundamentals, Bad Politics
(1) Brexit overdose in London. (2) UK is between the Rock and a hard place. (3) Brexit negotiations will be nasty. (4) Fundamentally, Europe is looking upbeat, according to PMI and ESI. (5) Forward revenues and earnings are also improving. (6) Investors seem to believe that populism is a passing fad in Europe. (7) Dutch treat. (8) French fried. (9) Will there be a Frexit referendum after presidential election? (10) Germans preferring the status quo voted for Mini-Merkel. (11) Italy is still Italy politically, but Italian banking crisis may be getting worse.

The Third Mandate
(1) More fuel for the melt-up. (2) Financial stability is the third mandate. (3) Putting odds on Nirvana, melt-up, or meltdown. (4) The S&P 500’s Price/Sales (a weekly version of Buffett Ratio) is in outer space. (5) Nose-bleed valuations unless Trump can boost earnings. (6) The melt-up mechanism may be in gear. (7) Stock buybacks plus equity ETF inflows are boosting stock prices. (8) Passive is the new active. (9) Valuation-dependent: Fed officials saying market is “a little rich” and “a little frothy.” (10) Dudley wants to add more fruit juice to the punch bowl. (11) Keep drinking for now; even fruit punch can cause a sugar high. (12) Movie Review: “The Zookeeper’s Wife” (+ +).

Jeff Bezos, The Terminator
(1) Jeff Bezos and Sigourney Weaver both have powerful exoskeletons. (2) Amazon is killing its competitors and inflation. (3) A short history of the plot to murder inflation. (4) From the Walmart price to the China price to the Amazon price. (5) Killing more and more categories. (6) Nearly one-third of GAFO online now. (7) More jobs at risk in retailing than manufacturing. (8) The hole in the mall. (9) Will theaters die along with anchor stores? (10) Autos getting weighed down by debt. (11) Used car prices falling.

Many Happy Revenues
(1) The recession is over. (2) Low oil prices are now stimulative on balance for the global economy. (3) Revenues are recovering with manufacturing & trade sales. (4) M-PMI is bullish for revenues, and so are regional business surveys. (5) Lots of sectors showing record-high forward revenues. (6) Belushi & Trump: “Toga! Toga! Toga! Toga!” (7) Giddy measure of consumer optimism. (8) Older consumers turned especially upbeat after Election Day. (9) Jobs are plentiful.

Bumps & Slumps
(1) Will failed ACA-R&R be followed by delayed and diminished (D&D) tax reform? (2) Plenty of time left for Trump to get it right, or wrong. (3) No harm, no foul for Trump on ACA. (4) Dollar remains strong despite recent slump. (5) End of energy recession early last year more bullish than Trump’s election, so far. (6) Low oil prices might finally be stimulating rather than depressing global economy. (7) Bond yields and stock prices may be slumping on lower oil prices. (8) Financials and Industrials clearly enjoyed Trump bumps, and now paying with slumps. (9) US stocks could slump for a short while relative to foreign ones.

Trump Swamped?
(1) Dead in the swamp already? (2) Trump is learning on the job. (3) Melissa’s good call. (4) Pelosi still takes ownership of Obamacare. (5) Trump’s Plan B is to let Obamacare implode and move forward on tax reform. (6) Markey Maypo, Uncle Ralph, and the stock market. (7) On to tax reform. (8) No cuts in ACA taxes on tap. (9) Tax reform might be tougher to reconcile than Mnuchin says. (10) US and regional business surveys available for March looking strong. (11) Eurozone PMIs very robust in March. (12) Q1 earnings season starting with forward earnings in high spirits.

Unchained
(1) If Trump lifts regs as promised, many companies will benefit big time. (2) Jackie recaps which industries stand to gain the most. (3) Financials, freed from Dodd-Frank shackles, would be a huge winner. (4) Other potential jackpot-hitters include autos, energy, homebuilders, and maybe even pharma. (5) Analysts project big earnings growth in 2017. (6) Joe gives us the lowdown on projected growth by sector.

Nothing Happened
(1) Another age-old adage. (2) Baron Rothschild’s secret. (3) The Bull/Bear Ratio may be too high. (4) Streets covered in blood vs. paved with gold. (5) Seinfeld market. (6) From tapering to tightening tantrums. (7) Emerging Markets growing faster despite Fed headwinds. (8) Bond funds still seeing net inflows. (9) Corporate bond liquidity crisis still a no-show. (10) Timeout for Trump rally? (11) Nothing to fear but profit-taking.

What Is Normal?
(1) Old timers. (2) The DJIA is up 20-fold since my first day on the Street. (3) Lots of adages. (4) Let the trend be your friend. Don’t fight the Fed. Taking away the punch bowl. Three strikes. (5) Bull markets start when Fed starts to ease, and continue when it starts to tighten. (6) Fed’s tightening usually ends badly. (7) If the real neutral federal funds rate is zero, the nominal rate should equal the inflation rate (2% currently). (8) Yellen’s swan song: Leave on a neutral note.

Lots of Strong Soft Data
(1) Yellen waiting to see if strong soft data turn into hard data. (2) Fed officials say business people more optimistic, but have a wait-and-see attitude. (3) “Gradual” remains in fashion at the Fed. (4) Less focus on “fiscal.” (5) Markets loved Yellen’s latest dovish cooing. She remains the Fairy Godmother of the Bull Market! (6) CEOs are bullish, which is good for capital spending. (7) Republicans are happy, while Democrats are sad. A net negative for spending? (8) Homebuilders seeing more traffic. (9) Lots of quitters. (10) NY & Philly business surveys remained exuberant in March. (11) The Fed plays with words and dots. (12) From one-and-done to three-a-piece.

Driverless
(1) Tech leads ytd performance derby among S&P 500 sectors. (2) Kudos to Health Care for coming in second despite Obamacare R&R commotion. (3) Homebuilders help to put Consumer Discretionary in third place despite retailers’ troubles. (4) The race to tech out cars pits Detroit against Silicon Valley. (5) But don’t expect Detroit’s economics to shift into higher margin & growth gears enjoyed by tech titans. (6) As tech firms make inroads into auto markets, Big Brother will be watching and driving.

Animal Spirits Showing Up in Earnings
(1) Happy eighth birthday. Now take a nap. (2) Trump wins whether ACA-R&R passes or fails. (3) The swamp thickens. (4) Breitbart wants to sink Ryan. (5) Small business owners think now is a good time to expand. (6) Old problems for SBOs were regulations and taxes. New one is shortage of workers. (7) Boom-Bust Barometer still boomingly bullish for earnings and stocks. (8) Forward revenues and earnings at record highs. (9) It’s not all about Trump: Global economy seems to be improving.

Go With the Flows
(1) The Fed’s world of credit. (2) Supply of equities continues to shrink, while debt continues to expand. (3) Lots of cash flow for nonfinancial corporations. (4) Move from active to passive clear in record purchases by equity ETFs. (5) Big buyers of equities not as valuation-oriented as traditional investors. (6) Treasury borrowing exceeds official deficit numbers. (7) Foreigners are biggest buyers of US corporate bonds. (8) China’s social financing blows away credit expansion in US. (9) Draghi’s policies have yet to boost Eurozone credit expansion.

Run, Bull, Run
(1) Bubba, Forrest, and the bull market. (2) Sprinting may not be healthy for aging bulls. (3) Among the best bull markets. (4) Bull market for job seekers. (5) Both soft and hard data confirming strength in labor market. (6) Another record high in full-time employment. (7) Earned Income Proxy also still rising in record-high territory. (8) Frackers have learned how to keep gushing at lower oil prices. (9) 27 Club. (10) Movie Review: “Kong: Skull Island” (- -).

Guns & Butter
(1) Entrepreneurial vs. crony capitalism. (2) Capitalism vs. corruption. (3) Adam Smith’s huge marketing mistake. (4) Are capitalists selfish or just insecure? (5) The customer is always right. (6) The butcher, the brewer, and the baker all faced cut-throat competition, until they joined a trade association. (7) Small business owners create jobs, not Washington’s politicians. (8) ADP data tell all. (9) Republican plans on spending and taxes add up to guns-and-butter. (10) Jackie discusses defense with Rick Whittington.

The Doors
(1) An untimely death of a poet. (2) Will Trump light a fire under corporate earnings? (3) Remarkable Zen-like calm of most stock investors. (4) Low VIX and bearishness agitating contrarians. (5) Behind Door #1: Nirvana. (6) Behind Door #2: Melt-up. (7) Behind Door #3: Meltdown. (8) Lowering bullish probability a notch from 90% to 80%. (9) Inflationary pressures are blowing in the wind. (10) No sign of clear and present danger of higher wage inflation.

Is Active Style Passé?
(1) A blatantly biased defense of active investing. (2) Is the deluge of passive money a contrary indicator? (3) Buffett’s last will and testament. (4) A passive melt-up. (5) Passive investors prefer low fees over cheap stocks. (6) Active managers did fine during previous two bull markets. (7) The choice is picking a passive index or actively picking the winners and losers in the index. (8) Stay Home investment strategy has beaten a passive global index. (9) Passive investing can feed on itself and distort capital allocation. (10) Passive investing is an active choice.

When Bulls Fly
(1) Everyone is happy and worried. (2) DC-PTSD. (3) Swamp’s lobbyists raking it in. (4) New odds: 10/30/60 now is 20/40/40 meltdown/meltup/normal bull. (5) Not all about Trump. (6) Bad stuff that didn’t happen can be bullish. (7) Our Boom-Bust Barometer and Weekly Leading Index are confirming vertical ascent of S&P 500. (8) Less fairy dust from Fairy Godmother. (9) But enough to keep bull flying. (10) Yellen should have been tougher on Friday.

Happy Anniversary
(1) Happy anniversary to an aging, but still hard-charging bull! (2) Group hug time? (3) Great call by BAM eight years ago. (4) Forward earnings up more than 100% since start of bull market. (5) Blue Angels show bulls can fly. (6) A kinder, gentler Trump is even more bullish than the bully Trump. (7) M-PMI soars, while public construction sags. (8) Lots of bulls to dance with. (9) Chuck Prince’s curse. (10) BAT is a full employment act for swamp dwellers. (11) BAT is bad for some, good for others. (12) Final Republican plan likely to be guns-and-butter rather than revenue-neutral.

Populism Popping Up in Europe Too
(1) A bunch of small countries. (2) US election widened yield spreads in Eurozone. (3) Madame Frexit is likely to win first round, but second round maybe not. (4) Lots of fake news in Europe too. (5) Old news: Italy may be a bigger problem than France. (6) Blonde Geert is Netherlands’ Orange Don. (7) Robots taking over Rotterdam. (8) Signs of life in Eurozone economy. (9) EMU MSCI is relatively cheap, but populist politics may be more troublesome in Eurozone than in US.

Buffett’s Rules & Ratios
(1) On the cheap side. (2) Buffett betting on and against Trump. (3) The Oracle sees diluted tax reform and no BAT. (4) The President’s speech. (5) Guns and butter? (6) Buffett Ratio suggests stocks aren’t so cheap. (7) Forward P/E and P/S ratios are also awfully high, unless Trump delivers earnings-boosting corporate tax cuts. (8) A protectionist-triggered recession is possible, but not likely. (9) More likely is that the economy will run very hot, or not so hot. (10) Dallas Fed survey shows regional energy recession is over. (11) Animal spirits roaming throughout the land.

Timing Isn’t Everything
(1) On the verge of civil, trade, and cyber wars? (2) The curse of Cain on Little Kim. (3) Stocks staying focused on setting record highs. (4) Saber-rattling at the FOMC. (5) Bond yield remains in our 2.00%-2.50% range. (6) S&P 500 revenues rise to record high during Q4-2016. (7) More evidence that the earnings recession is over. (8) Margins remain at record levels, frustrating reverting-to-the-mean bears. (9) CEO of Dow Chemical says Trump administration is the most pro-business ever. (10) Bull market may remain resilient even if Trump’s bullish agenda falls behind schedule. (11) Movie Review: “Bitter Harvest” (- -).

Swamp Waters
(1) Declaration of reconciliation. (2) No gabbing aloud allowed. (3) With or without dynamic scoring, “revenue-neutral” tax reform plans look like tax cut plans. (4) Trump plan omits revenue gained from border adjustment and revenues lost from ACA repeal. (5) Hard to estimate impact of deregulation and infrastructure spending in budget projections. (6) Guns and butter, again? (7) Why are analysts so bullish on profit margins? (8) Jackie explains the ins and outs of Pentagon spending. (9) Increasing defense outlays in three steps could trip sequestration. (10) Europe will have to spend more on weapons, which is why the stocks of defense companies are flying high.

Hard To Reconcile
(1) Easy to believe Trump reviving animal spirits in US. (2) Hard to imagine he is doing that overseas. (3) The recovery from the Energy recession explains some of the recent global upturn. (4) China still addicted to credit, which soared $2.7 trillion over past 12 months through January. (5) Flash PMIs are flashing green. (6) Retail sales strong in Europe. (7) Two-step: Reconcile Trump-Cohen and Ryan-Brady bills then get merged one fast-tracked through Congress with reconciliation process. (8) A couple of hurdles such as border adjustment tax and R&R of ACA. (9) Bismarck’s sausage warning.

Rules for Paranoids
(1) Historic times, maybe. (2) Paranoids vs. paranoids out to get one another. (3) Alinsky’s rule book for middle-class revolutionary youths. (4) Hillary’s 1969 senior thesis now available online. (5) OFA organizing to keep Obama’s status quo. (6) Historian Hofstadter wrote the book on “paranoid style” in American politics. (7) Rahm tells Trump to cut taxes post haste. (8) More animal spirits in the zoo. (9) Blanchard says secular stagnation wasn’t so secular after all.

Game of Thrones
(1) Trump trip. (2) Bullish plans vs. bearish bluster. (3) Declarations of war lead to wars. (4) Obama’s throne in DC and his supporters around the country. (5) OFA all the way? (6) The first casualty. (7) The shoe is on the other foot. (8) Time to fast-track tax and regulation reform. (9) Catch-22: Too much of a good thing. (10) Tech is leading the pack. (11) Jackie explains the media industry’s Game of Thrones.

Running Hotter
(1) Small Business Optimism Index goes vertical. (2) Reagan, Volcker, and now Trump. (3) Small business owners don’t like big government. (4) Business owners saying jobs are hard to fill, while workers are saying jobs are plentiful. (5) Let’s see how far China’s rooster can fly in the new year. (6) China’s trade data, PPI, and stock prices all are upbeat. (7) Yellen is pleased and signaling more rate hikes coming. (8) No more talk about hysteresis.

Bada-Bing, Bada-Boom
(1) Sonny and Michael Corleone. (2) Improv. (3) Knowing when to walk out. (4) Is this the melt-up? (5) Sell on the tax news, or just go away in May? (6) Consensus 2018 earnings estimates are steady and bullish. (7) Going vertical: Stock prices, our Boom-Bust Barometer, and YRI Weekly Leading Index. (8) From “The economy, stupid!” to “Populism, stupid! (9) Bond spreads widening in Europe. (10) What if Brexit is a success? (11) Le Pen will bring crowbar to Frexit door. (12) ECB getting bada-chinged.

Good Rotation
(1) Dictionary definitions. (2) Chump change, chunk of change, and Trump change. (3) QE was terminated in late 2014, yet equity bull continues to charge ahead. (4) No Great Rotation so far, but maybe the start of a Good Rotation. (5) Piling into savings deposits. (6) December was a good month for equity funds. (7) China’s rooster starts the new year with a loud crow. (8) UK factories booming. (9) No sign of zerosumitis. (10) Movie Review: “A Dog’s Purpose” (+ +).

Here Come the Jetsons
(1) Correction time yet? (2) Bulls dwarf bears—but sell signals were never the Bull/Bear Ratio’s forte. (3) Investors putting trust in earnings and Trump’s bullish plans for now, while ignoring his bearish ones. (4) We’d prefer to see fewer bulls and less bullying. (5) Jackie goes for a drive in the auto industry. (6) Subprime is making a comeback in auto loans. (7) Autonomous cars may change almost everything. (8) Uber drones. (9) S&P 500 Automobile Manufacturers’ single-digit P/E reflects concerns more so than promise at this point.

Holey Walls
(1) Practical issues with a wall on US border with Mexico. (2) Maybe it needs to be south of Mexico rather than south of the US. (3) Believe it or not: Chinese believe in free markets! (4) Not when it comes to capital flows, as they slap controls to stem outflows. (5) China’s international reserves fall to $3 trillion. (6) Railway freight traffic improving. (7) A billionaire disappears. (8) The Silk Route project is rolling down the tracks.

A Winning Scenario
(1) Second place is for losers. (2) Might “America First” be a winning strategy for the world? (3) America’s gift to the world: $700bn trade deficit. (4) Group hug overseas? (5) Time for emerging economies to emerge. (6) Remarkable recovery for commodity prices. (7) Emerging market currencies stable over past year despite Fed’s rate hikes. (8) EM stock prices rallying. (9) Global PMIs were solid in January. (10) Is owning gold a bet for or against Trump?

Entrepreneurial vs. Crony Capitalists
(1) Trump takes credit for latest strong jobs report. (2) Does anyone in Washington really “create” jobs? (3) Keynes vs. Bastiat on buried bottles and broken windows. (4) Small and medium-sized companies do most of the hiring as they grow. (5) Crony capitalists tend to run big companies that want to protect what they’ve got. (6) Are Trump’s billionaires populists or cronies? (7) Goldman doing God’s work again. (8) Demographic impediments to Trump’s goal of 25 million new jobs. (9) Can the Phillips Curve be saved? (10) The Fed is lying low. (11) Movie review: “Fences” (+ +).

Panning for Gold
(1) Looking for good buys. (2) Looking for earnings outperformers. (3) A simple screen. (4) Industrials benefitting from end of energy recession. (5) Railroads hauling more fracking sand, again, and even coal. (6) Lots of Financials making the grade. (7) Some Tech industries stand out. (8) Specialty Chemicals are special. (9) Surprising finds among consumer-related industries. (10) Mexicans who lose their factory jobs will be shovel-ready. (11) We reckon there are only 900,000 jobs to bring back from Mexico.

Now the Hard Part
(1) Trump hits the (muddy) ground running. (2) Mud is key feature of Washington’s terrain. (3) Hill Republicans want 200 days to implement Trump’s 100-day agenda. (4) Running out of momentum, for now. (5) Earnings picture remains bright. (6) Impressive rebound in commodity prices. (7) European economies looking better. (8) Consumer Optimism Index holds post-election gain in January. (9) The best and the brightest wheeler-dealers. (10) Let’s make a deal!

Devilish Details
(1) Politics is a blood sport. (2) Aneurin Bevan and Ivanka Trump say so. (3) The cradle of civilization is no longer so civilized. (4) Mexico is Trump’s piñata. (5) Noise-to-signal ratio rising. (6) Bond Vigilantes Model says bond yield should be 3.50%, not 2.50%. (7) Despite upturn, bond yields remain near zero in Germany and Japan. (8) Record highs for S&P 500 forward revenues and earnings, as well as for our Boom Bust Barometer and Weekly Leading Index. (9) Spirited animals.

New Normal World Order
(1) Back to the future on trade? (2) Trump’s World Order: From multilateral back to bilateral. (3) Trump channeling FDR’s Reciprocal Trade Agreements and Reagan’s voluntary export restraints. (4) Ross Perot’s giant sucking sound. (5) Can Globalization be saved? (6) Excluding soybean exports, real GDP rose 2.5% during Q3 & Q4. (7) Manufacturing capacity, flat since 2001, may be heading higher soon. (8) Leading indicators all pointing higher. (9) Movie review: “Moonlight” (- -).

Another Milestone
(1) Another nice round number. (2) Is popularity overrated? (3) Love him, or hate him. (4) Lots of happy surveys of consumer confidence, purchasing managers, regional business activity, and investor sentiment. (5) Silicon Valley may change the future more than Washington will. (6) Jackie explains why there might be more upside in both Semiconductors and Homebuilding.

Earnings World
(1) Pay no attention to the clowns behind the curtain. (2) From Ringling Brothers to Cirque du Trump. (3) S&P 500 revenues and earnings recovering to new record highs from Energy-led recession. (4) Q4 earning season likely to deliver 6% gain. (5) Analysts are raising their 2018 earnings estimates. (6) Energy, Financials, & IT showing best earnings revisions and forward earnings momentum. (7) Managing companies well despite Washington. (8) Some signs of life in overseas forward earnings. (9) Plenty of life in flash M-PMIs for US, Eurozone, and Japan.

The First 100 Hours
(1) Andrew Jackson’s song. (2) Power to the forgotten people. (3) Trump is channeling Jackson, FDR, JFK, and Perot. (4) Jury still out on extent of Trump’s protectionism. (5) DJT is no JFK on world stage. (6) Isolationism vs interventionism. (7) Foxconn pays the entry price. (8) Merkel seeks compromises with Trump. (9) China’s sore point. (10) Mexico getting stomped by 800lb gorilla north of the border. (11) NAFTA will be renegotiated one way or another.

Too Hot for Goldilocks?
(1) Back to the Old Normal business cycle with a boom followed by a bust? (2) Our “benchmark model” sees the next recession starting in March 2019. (3) Bill, Larry, Janet, and Ronnie. (4) Fed’s Goldilocks now worrying that the economy might run too hot. (5) Obama’s jobless rate followed same track as Reagan’s! (6) The hottest market in America. (7) Buddy, can you spare a worker? (8) Auto industry running out of capacity, especially for light trucks. (9) Lots of tonnage to truck. (10) Driving to and from, and for, work. (11) Trump is the New Abnormal. (12) Movie review: “The Founder” (+ + +).

Rising & Setting Suns
(1) Banner Q4 for big banks and brokers. (2) Financials fundamentals may be just starting to shine. (3) Room for improvement in IPOs, in M&As, and asset management. (4) Financials playing catch-up after lagging for so long. (5) No bullseye for Abe’s “three arrows.” (6) 2020 Olympics could boost Japan a bit for a little while. (7) Not much CPI and export bang from the depreciating yen. (8) Aging is a big drag in Japan, as population shrinks. (9) Abe was first foreign leader to visit Trump. (10) A couple of signs of life.

Method to His Madness?
(1) A matter of style. (2) The Great Disruptor. (3) Polonius, Hamlet, and Trump. (4) Queen Victoria needed a Twitter account. (5) Who is madder? (6) CEOs kissing Trump’s ring. (7) Trump says border tax too complicated. (8) Trump’s Rules for Wheeler Dealers: Negotiate from your strength, and find their weakness. (9) IMF also drinking the Kool-Aid. (10) S&P 500 revenues and earnings indicators are mostly upbeat. (11) Fed’s talking heads are talking about more rate hikes.

Happy Daze
(1) Harry, Dwight, and Donald. (2) The Donald and the Fonz. (3) Happy days in Bull-Bear Ratio and P/Es. (4) Will investors soon be dazed and confused? (5) Trump’s tax plan is very similar to Ryan’s “A Better Way.” (6) Corporations won’t be able to deduct interest expense under Ryan plan, and will have a choice in Trump plan. (7) Both plans would allow for current expensing of equipment. (8) Border tax is confusing and controversial. (9) Ross/Navarro have a plan to attract VCs and private-sector players to invest in infrastructure. (10) Trump is a one-man good-cop/bad-cop. (11) Trump’s “team of rivals” agree more with one another than with Trump. (12) Melissa compares Reaganomics and Trumponomics. (13) Movie review: “Lion” (+ + +).

Blockchain & Border Taxes
(1) Comforting Financials. (2) Rays of sunshine. (3) Lots of Financial industries basking in the sun. (4) Timely split from REITs. (5) Blockchain: The future is now, and so are the cost savings. (6) Bitcoin: Blockchain’s evil offspring? (7) Jackie interviews Jim Lucier, Capital Alpha’s tax wizard, on border tax. (8) Border tax proposal is an onion. (9) Kind of like a VAT. (10) The end of dodging taxes? (11) How corporate tax reform could boost dollar and lower interest rates.

Zoology
(1) Trump and animal spirits. (2) More than 2 million Google links. (3) Government vs. business experience. (4) Keynes was a zoologist too. (5) Small business owners (SBOs) are going wild. (6) SBOs matter because they do lots of hiring. (7) New problem for SBOs: Shortage of workers. (8) Earnings season should confirm recovery that started during Q3. (9) Why small stocks are beautiful. (10) US frackers sending thank-you notes to Saudis.

Let’s Get Fiscal
(1) BeeGees, Olivia Newton-John, and Janet Yellen. (2) Counting words: “Fiscal” and “dollar” pop up often in FOMC minutes. (3) Trump may fill the wishes of Fed officials for more fiscal stimulus. (4) Fed officials hoping that fiscal policy can lift R*. (5) Mixed with confusion. (6) Dollar strength reflecting divergence between Fed and other major central banks. (7) Foreigners scrambling to repay dollar-denominated debts that financed carry trades. (8) Constructing an implied capital flows proxy for the world ex-US. (9) Our proxy explains strength of the dollar. (10) So does the drop in non-gold international reserves.

Labor’s Turn & Turnover
(1) What do you get when you play country songs backwards? (2) Johnny Paycheck would have voted for Trump. (3) Tighter labor market reflected in higher wages and quits, which are boosting consumer confidence. (4) Earned Income Proxy at record high. (5) Retiring Baby Boomers boosting NILF count. (6) Is the yuan done going down yet? (7) PBOC desperate to hold onto 7.0 yuan/$ and $3.0 trillion reserves. (8) China’s capital controls are latest desperate measures. (9) Trump’s pick of US ambassador to China is BFF of Xi. (10) Movie: “Hidden Figures” (+ +).

Leading from Behind
(1) Stay home, go global, or emerge? (2) Trump favors “Stay Home” investment strategy. (3) Commodity prices seem to matter more for emerging markets than does the Fed or the dollar. (4) Asian economies doing well now, but facing Trump tweets on trade. (5) Profits rising in China. (6) South Korea has a political crisis, while India has a currency crisis. (7) Taiwan’s M-PMI confirming upturn in tech business. (8) Brazil remains in deep recession, while Mexico may be starting to stumble on troubles north of the border. (9) Jackie explains Health Care’s wounded performance. (10) Is a shortage of new drugs pushing up prices of old drugs? (11) Drug distributors getting squeezed.

Who’s Afraid of the Big Bad Wolf?
(1) He will huff and puff, but will he blow the house down? (2) Time for lots of little piggies to shape up? (3) Wish list full of wishful thinking? (4) Lil’ Kim and the Supremes. (5) Impressive, but not unprecedented, rally in stocks since T-Day. (6) Investors are front-running Trump’s tax cuts. (7) Reaganomics faced completely different economy than Trumponomics. (8) Lots of upbeat M-PMIs. (9) Boom-Bust Barometer booming, which is bullish for S&P 500 forward earnings and stock index. (10) China’s M-PMI price index confirms upturn in PPI inflation rate.

Rogue One
(1) Prequels and sequels. (2) Going rogue on 2017 earnings outlook. (3) Does it matter whether tax cuts start in 2017 or 2018? (4) S&P 500 forward revenues and earnings rising to record highs. (5) Energy industry’s recession is over, and it didn’t spill over to the broader economy. (6) Consumer optimism booming since Election Day. (7) Trump’s “America First” inspired by Lord Palmerston. (8) Radical regime change: From community organizers to dealmakers. (9) Two kinds of rogues. (10) May the force be with us. (11) “Rogue One” (-).