Executive Summary: President Trump’s Venezuelan gambit may give China cover to tighten the noose around Taiwan. That could slam global markets and supply chains, William writes, as well as unnerve global AI investors envisioning Taiwan Semiconductor winding up in China’s

Executive Summary: The bark of President Trump’s harsh tariff policy has been worse than its bite. While many of the rates are punishingly high, Trump’s tariffs have not hobbled the global economy or saddled the domestic economy with runaway inflation.

Executive Summary: It’s an economic curiosity of our times: The US economy is undeniably strong, in fact remarkably resilient in the face of recent headwinds. Yet it’s in the midst of an affordability crisis that has hit Gen Zers and

Executive Summary: Among the improbable accomplishments of artificial intelligence, it has turned sleepy Utilities stocks into hot commodities. Demand for electricity to power AI data centers is expected to soar. Jackie examines forecasts for electricity generation and what’s fueling them.

Executive Summary: As Brazil’s economy falters, its central bank has not eased, more determined to tame inflation than spur economic growth. Such Volcker-esque monetary policy has put bank chief Gabriel Galipolo in the hotseat, William reports, and at odds with

Executive Summary: It’s not China’s feared “Lehman moment.” But the psychological impact of Chinese property developer Vanke’s inability to pay its debt on time can’t be overstated, writes William. The situation is rattling investors who recall the 2021 default of

Executive Summary: It has all the drama of “Game of Thrones”: The Magnificent-7 kingdoms, each surrounded by moats, rarely had threatened each other’s monopolies in the past. Now, with the advent of AI, they have been encroaching on each other’s

Executive Summary: Various Trump administration initiatives have showered love on certain industries in the S&P 500 Financials sector, helping to lift its ytd performance to fourth among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors. Jackie counts the ways they’ve benefited. … Also:

Executive Summary: Oil appears to be stuck in the mud. Melissa analyzes the bullish and the bearish forces keeping the price of Brent crude futures mired below the mid-$60s per barrel. We expect to see more of the same in

Executive Summary: High drama surrounds the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision next week, William reports. BOJ Governor Ueda is determined to end the many years of extreme monetary ease that have squelched Japan’s animal spirits. Prime Minister Takaichi is

Executive Summary: The coming new year looks like another good one for stock investors. Dr Ed is adjusting his subjective odds of various stock market scenarios, including raising the odds of his base-case Roaring 2020s outlook to 60%. Associated assumptions

Executive Summary: The holiday selling season is off to a merry start for retailers. By most accounts, consumers gobbled up the post-Thanksgiving sales last weekend with more gusto than last year. … Also: Does the recent downdraft in the price

Executive Summary: Investor concerns that AI may be costing more than it’s worth should be put into perspective, Melissa says. It is costing a fortune to build out AI infrastructure, and investors aren’t wrong to worry that OpenAI won’t make

Executive Summary: China has a shot at overshooting the government’s 5% GDP growth target in coming years, William reports, if it keeps its exports flowing, as they have been, to developed nations other than the US. But this would risk

Executive Summary: On paper, the American consumer looks flush: Unemployment is low, inflation is down, the stock market is up, and average wage growth has kept up with inflation. Indeed, the Misery Index is low, which usually means consumer sentiment

Executive Summary: Consumers are well positioned to spend heartily this holiday shopping season even though investors and consumers themselves have their doubts. Inflation and economic qualms have done a number on consumer confidence. But Jackie argues that holiday spending may

Executive Summary: Japan’s GDP is contracting as its inflation mounts, but newly installed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi isn’t up to the stagflation challenge, William reports. Her massive stimulus package risks stoking inflation, as do US tariffs and a weak yen.

Executive Summary: Our base-case outlook calls for a continuation of the Roaring 2020s scenario next year, with ongoing productivity gains that fuel a robust economy, which propels earnings and the stock market higher. Today, Dr Ed reviews the Roaring 2020s

Executive Summary: Tech stocks, home-related stocks, and bitcoin have borne the brunt of the stock market’s sell-off this month. Jackie looks at the issues that scared investors away and the particular industries and stocks they dropped as they ran. …

Executive Summary: Emerging markets’ stock markets are enjoying bull runs. Melissa says there are strong enough earnings support and low enough valuations to suggest opportunities for investors mindful of the risks. … Also: William reports that US tariffs will be

Executive Summary: China’s economy has been surprisingly resilient this year in the face of external headwinds. But it’s internal headwinds that pose the greater threat to GDP growth, William opines, and President Xi’s policies are perpetuating them. … Also: William

Executive Summary: The economy and corporate profits have been remarkably resilient in recent years despite numerous formidable challenges. This year continued the remarkable performance, as Trump’s Tariff Turmoil failed to derail earnings or the economy. As a result, the stock

Executive Summary: There’s no doubt that demand for AI is growing. The question is, will new data centers have access to the massive amounts of electricity needed to make AI possible? Jackie takes a look at the electricity logjam down

Executive Summary: Hopes that China’s deflation problem is ending are premature, William reports. He explains why deflation remains a clear and present danger to China’s economy, and one that’s exportable to its trading partners. … Also: The Fed’s latest Financial Stability

Executive Summary: Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney has been pushed into action by President Trump’s tariffs and talk of making Canada the 51st state. Carney’s plan: spend big to boost economic growth and span the globe to woo new trading

Executive Summary: Now that the GENIUS Act has established a framework for stablecoin issuance with safeguards for consumers, we expect stablecoin usage to proliferate. Because stablecoins are backed by liquid assets such as Treasury bills, their proliferation is likely to

Executive Summary: The S&P 500 Semiconductors industry is rapidly growing earnings, buoyed by lofty demand for chips that enable artificial intelligence. But its valuations are lofty as well. Today, Jackie compares and contrasts the earnings prospects and valuations of two

Executive Summary: The first wave of AI adoption was about making work more efficient. The coming wave will be about redesigning work itself, says Melissa. AI is likely to transform the labor force by eliminating humans’ grunt work and creating

Executive Summary: Central banks around the world have lost control over their economies amid an unprecedented array of challenges, William reports. In several nations, political forces threaten their independence, and central banks have been making monetary policy decisions that don’t

Executive Summary: The data-dependent Fed is operating as well as possible without the usual economic data releases from government agencies during the shutdown. The shutdown is the latest in a series of unusual challenges Jerome Powell has navigated admirably as