Executive Summary: The coming new year looks like another good one for stock investors. Dr Ed is adjusting his subjective odds of various stock market scenarios, including raising the odds of his base-case Roaring 2020s outlook to 60%. Associated assumptions

Executive Summary: The holiday selling season is off to a merry start for retailers. By most accounts, consumers gobbled up the post-Thanksgiving sales last weekend with more gusto than last year. … Also: Does the recent downdraft in the price

Executive Summary: Investor concerns that AI may be costing more than it’s worth should be put into perspective, Melissa says. It is costing a fortune to build out AI infrastructure, and investors aren’t wrong to worry that OpenAI won’t make

Executive Summary: China has a shot at overshooting the government’s 5% GDP growth target in coming years, William reports, if it keeps its exports flowing, as they have been, to developed nations other than the US. But this would risk

Executive Summary: On paper, the American consumer looks flush: Unemployment is low, inflation is down, the stock market is up, and average wage growth has kept up with inflation. Indeed, the Misery Index is low, which usually means consumer sentiment

Executive Summary: Consumers are well positioned to spend heartily this holiday shopping season even though investors and consumers themselves have their doubts. Inflation and economic qualms have done a number on consumer confidence. But Jackie argues that holiday spending may

Executive Summary: Japan’s GDP is contracting as its inflation mounts, but newly installed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi isn’t up to the stagflation challenge, William reports. Her massive stimulus package risks stoking inflation, as do US tariffs and a weak yen.

Executive Summary: Our base-case outlook calls for a continuation of the Roaring 2020s scenario next year, with ongoing productivity gains that fuel a robust economy, which propels earnings and the stock market higher. Today, Dr Ed reviews the Roaring 2020s

Executive Summary: Tech stocks, home-related stocks, and bitcoin have borne the brunt of the stock market’s sell-off this month. Jackie looks at the issues that scared investors away and the particular industries and stocks they dropped as they ran. …

Executive Summary: Emerging markets’ stock markets are enjoying bull runs. Melissa says there are strong enough earnings support and low enough valuations to suggest opportunities for investors mindful of the risks. … Also: William reports that US tariffs will be

Executive Summary: China’s economy has been surprisingly resilient this year in the face of external headwinds. But it’s internal headwinds that pose the greater threat to GDP growth, William opines, and President Xi’s policies are perpetuating them. … Also: William

Executive Summary: The economy and corporate profits have been remarkably resilient in recent years despite numerous formidable challenges. This year continued the remarkable performance, as Trump’s Tariff Turmoil failed to derail earnings or the economy. As a result, the stock

Executive Summary: There’s no doubt that demand for AI is growing. The question is, will new data centers have access to the massive amounts of electricity needed to make AI possible? Jackie takes a look at the electricity logjam down

Executive Summary: Hopes that China’s deflation problem is ending are premature, William reports. He explains why deflation remains a clear and present danger to China’s economy, and one that’s exportable to its trading partners. … Also: The Fed’s latest Financial Stability

Executive Summary: Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney has been pushed into action by President Trump’s tariffs and talk of making Canada the 51st state. Carney’s plan: spend big to boost economic growth and span the globe to woo new trading

Executive Summary: Now that the GENIUS Act has established a framework for stablecoin issuance with safeguards for consumers, we expect stablecoin usage to proliferate. Because stablecoins are backed by liquid assets such as Treasury bills, their proliferation is likely to

Executive Summary: The S&P 500 Semiconductors industry is rapidly growing earnings, buoyed by lofty demand for chips that enable artificial intelligence. But its valuations are lofty as well. Today, Jackie compares and contrasts the earnings prospects and valuations of two

Executive Summary: The first wave of AI adoption was about making work more efficient. The coming wave will be about redesigning work itself, says Melissa. AI is likely to transform the labor force by eliminating humans’ grunt work and creating

Executive Summary: Central banks around the world have lost control over their economies amid an unprecedented array of challenges, William reports. In several nations, political forces threaten their independence, and central banks have been making monetary policy decisions that don’t

Executive Summary: The data-dependent Fed is operating as well as possible without the usual economic data releases from government agencies during the shutdown. The shutdown is the latest in a series of unusual challenges Jerome Powell has navigated admirably as

Executive Summary: Consumer spending is being buffeted by countervailing winds—with heady financial market returns potentially lifting spending even as deportations, the government shutdown, and the effects of AI on employment potentially depress it. Jackie examines the recent earnings reports of

Executive Summary: It’s great that Presidents Trump and Xi are coming to the table, but William argues that markets’ jubilance at the prospect of a US-China trade deal may be inflated. Much still could go awry, and tensions between the

Executive Summary: Japanese stocks surged after the election of Sanae Takaichi as prime minister, but investors’ enthusiasm may be premature. Japan’s first female leader is all for continued easy monetary policy, which puts her at odds with the Bank of

Executive Summary: The Fed Put is back. Given the likelihood of two more reductions in the federal funds rate before year-end, we’re reducing the odds of our bullish base-case Roaring 2020s scenario from 55% to 50% and raising the odds

Executive Summary: With wars ongoing, the federal government’s weapons purchases haven’t let up during the government shutdown. Investors have been bidding up the stocks of US defense contractors as a result, and the S&P 500 Aerospace and Defense industry has

Executive Summary: Is AI really the jobs disrupter it’s chalked up to be? Melissa distills the research on how much AI has displaced human work, which industries are most affected, and which worker populations are out of luck. … Also,

Executive Summary: US/China trade-war brinkmanship has reached the brink: China’s President Xi hasn’t budged on the rare-earth-minerals export controls that will severely curtail the world’s ability to produce electronics. Numerous nations think China has gone too far this time, William

Executive Summary: Investors’ panic attack Thursday was another of many short-lived frights that haunt bull runs. Our economic analyses help us spot the difference between panic-generated minor pullbacks and scarier downturns like corrections and bear markets. Corrections tend to occur

Executive Summary: Fed Chair Powell came across as hawkishly dovish in his latest public remarks, observes Melissa. He noted risks to the labor market, the near completion of the Fed’s quantitative tightening, and inflationary pressures that are only temporary—all dovish

Executive Summary: The surging gold price has already exceeded our year-end target of $4,000 per ounce. Risk-off investors may be concluding that gold offers greater protection from geopolitical risks than bitcoin, which is more like a risk-on speculative vehicle and