The week ahead will offer timely clues about both the American consumer and inflation. The economic releases this week might also influence financial market expectations about another Fed rate cut as soon as the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The federal funds futures

The DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all rose to record highs this past week. All were boosted by the Fed’s decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25bps on Wednesday. Is the stock market back on the road to the same

Please see Dr Ed’s op-ed in today’s Financial Times titled “Why it might be the time to repeal the Fed’s dual mandate: Should 3% be the US central bank’s new inflation target?” As expected by everyone, the FOMC delivered a 25bps cut

The FOMC is likely to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps tomorrow. Among the meeting participants, there might be one or more dissenters to the decision who favor a 50bps cut and one or more dissenters opposed to any cut. The Summary

Central banks take the spotlight this week as monetary policymakers from Washington to Tokyo cut to the chase on the balance of economic risks. Though the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting (Tue-Wed) is the main event, rate decisions by the

Last Wednesday, Larry Ellison, the executive chairman and chief technology officer of Oracle, saw his net worth jump by $101 billion—the biggest one-day increase ever recorded on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index—to $382 billion. That happened after the company announced

Following yesterday’s cooler-than-expected PPI and today’s as-expected CPI, expectations are that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 17, with no dissenters to that decision among voting members. Following today’s jump in

There was a lot of news today that, on balance, didn’t move the needle much in the financial markets, which are marking time until August’s PPI and CPI reports are released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Let’s review all

We typically speak of stock market meltups as desirable for a limited time only, as they’re typically followed directly by meltdowns. On second thought: A stock market meltup might be alright after all. A meltdown needn’t follow it if it

President Donald Trump on Saturday amplified his promises to send National Guard troops and immigration agents to Chicago by posting a parody image from “Apocalypse Now” featuring a ball of flames as helicopters zoom over the nation’s second-largest city.

On Tuesday at 10:00 a.m., the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish its preliminary benchmark revision for March 2025 employment data. This coincides with the release of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data for Q1-2025.

August’s employment report was released this morning. It was weaker than expected. The month’s payrolls rose by just 22,000. June’s number was revised down by 27,000 to a decline of 13,000, while July’s number was revised up by 6,000

Stock prices rose again today as the 10-year bond yield fell. Investors anticipate that tomorrow’s employment report for August will be weak. If so, then it is a sure bet that the FOMC’s majority will turn dovish and will

The S&P 500 rose today despite a batch of weak economic indicators over the past two days. Investors perceive that bad news is good news if it increases the chances of a Fed rate cut on September 17. Indeed,

We turned bullish on gold last year when the spot price of the shiny metal decisively rose above $2,000 per ounce (chart). We attributed this new bull market in gold to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In

This week is chock-a-block with data reports, all building up to Friday’s pivotal employment report. The August jobs release will offer a reality check of sorts following July’s surprisingly soft reading and significant downward revisions to results for May and June. It could determine whether

September has a long history of being a tough month for the stock market. This has been particularly true over the past decade, based on the average year-to-date percentage change in the S&P 500 during Septembers (chart). But when

The bull market in stocks is making everyone who owns stocks richer. Gallup reported that 62% of Americans were invested in the stock market at the end of 2024 (chart). That’s the highest since the end of 2008. We

Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue after the stock market closed today. Revenue growth has now exceeded 50% for nine straight quarters. Nvidia is one of several mega-cap technology stocks that have fueled the bull market in the US, causing it

The monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey includes the most timely monthly indicators of the labor market. August’s survey was released today (chart). The jobs-plentiful series remained relatively high at 29.7%. The jobs-available series fell to 50.3%, which is

The Magnificent-7 stocks have been leading the charge of the current bull market that started on October 12, 2022. They are all in the Nasdaq 100, which is up 117.9% so far since the start of the bull market,

Now that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is talking the talk of easing, markets are on the lookout for whether upcoming data are walking the walk. A Fed rate cut next month isn’t a done deal, no matter what Powell

Ever since the release of the weaker-than-expected July employment report at the start of this month, stock investors have been betting that the Fed Put is back in play and that it will probably be implemented at the FOMC’s

Stock and bond prices have been marking time over the past couple of weeks, waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to speak tomorrow at 10 a.m. at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Meanwhile, today’s batch of economic indicators supports our

On balance, there aren’t a lot of inflationary pressures in the commodity markets. Precious metals are on top of the leaderboard so far this year among the major commodity price gains (chart). Platinum, gold, and silver are ranked #1,

The Fed is required by law to keep inflation low and stable while also maintaining full employment. Achieving that dual mandate isn’t always easy. Currently, the labor market is at full employment, but there are a few signs of

By most accounts, almost everyone is bearish on the dollar. Nearly everyone is selling dollars to buy euros and gold, according to this widely held view. Global investors are rebalancing their equity portfolios out of US stocks into European

Wolf pack sightings aren’t uncommon in Grand Teton National Park. But this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may find himself fending off a large pack of them again as Federal Reserve officials gather for their annual retreat in Jackson

The 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will focus on “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.” The symposium is scheduled for August 21-23. It’s an annual event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming,

We’ve acknowledged that the odds of a Fed rate cut have increased since the release of July’s cold employment report and July’s lukewarm CPI report so far this month. But we’ve also noted that more economic indicators will be