wiar 02-07-23

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February 07 (Tuesday)

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Earnings & Valuation
While earnings recessions usually don’t occur without economic recessions, recent data suggest a possible decoupling. Analysts have been lowering their earnings estimates, and a recession in forward earnings could occur if forward margins decline faster than forward revenues grow. Yet we see no recession ahead in the broad economy—or in earnings—but a soft landing, with real GDP growth approximating 1.0% during the first half of this year and 2.0% during the second half. … Also: Valuations have been rebounding across the board for S&P indexes since October 12, surprisingly so for the S&P 500 and its Value index. Comparatively low valuations in overseas stock markets have begun luring global investors.
(subscribers’ link)

Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 6.

Are markets right in expecting an ‘immaculate disinflation’? | The Hill

Central banks
Fed’s Jerome Powell Says Hiring Surge Shows Why Inflation Fight Could Be Difficult | W
Fed’s Powell says job strength shows inflation fight may last ‘quite a bit of time’ | R
Fed Chair Powell says inflation is starting to ease, but interest rates still likely to rise | C
Fed’s Neel Kashkari says central bank has not made enough progress, keeping his rate outlook | C

It’s time to chill with all the recession talk | NN
Home-Buying Companies Stuck With Hundreds of Houses as Demand Slows | W
January used vehicle prices pop, according to Cox’s Manheim index | C
U.S. Business Owners Pay Premium to Hire Migrant Workers in Extremely Tight Labor Market | W
Households Burn Through What’s Left of Their Pandemic Savings | W

Biden’s utter ‘no negotiations’ debt limit hypocrisy | P
Biden to Tout Economic Gains in State of the Union | W
The Continued Wrecking of New York City | Brownstone Institute
Will Home Prices Fall? NYC Suburbs Show Real Estate Demand Is High | B

Japan Ends Multibillion-Dollar Bid to Enter Passenger-Jet Market | W

Geopolitics & trade
U.S. Trade Deficit Hit Record in 2022 | W
U.S. seeks Chinese balloon remnants, says approach to China will stay calm | R
China spy balloon: New photos show the U.S. Navy recovering downed aircraft off U.S. coast | C

Industries & companies
Energy: BP Slows Transition to Renewable Energy as Oil Bonanza Continues | W
Tech: Zoom layoffs: Company to cut 1,300 employees | C

Commerce Officials to Detail Chips Act Application Process This Month | W

Beyond markets
Ransomware outbreak hits Florida Supreme Court, U.S. and European universities | R
The Blurred Lines Between Goldman C.E.O.’s Day Job and His D.J. Gig | N