February 07 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Earnings & Valuation
While earnings recessions usually don’t occur without economic recessions, recent data suggest a possible decoupling. Analysts have been lowering their earnings estimates, and a recession in forward earnings could occur if forward margins decline faster than forward revenues grow. Yet we see no recession ahead in the broad economy—or in earnings—but a soft landing, with real GDP growth approximating 1.0% during the first half of this year and 2.0% during the second half. … Also: Valuations have been rebounding across the board for S&P indexes since October 12, surprisingly so for the S&P 500 and its Value index. Comparatively low valuations in overseas stock markets have begun luring global investors.
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YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed’s webinar on February 6.
Markets
Are markets right in expecting an ‘immaculate disinflation’? | The Hill
Central banks
Fed’s Jerome Powell Says Hiring Surge Shows Why Inflation Fight Could Be Difficult | W
Fed’s Powell says job strength shows inflation fight may last ‘quite a bit of time’ | R
Fed Chair Powell says inflation is starting to ease, but interest rates still likely to rise | C
Fed’s Neel Kashkari says central bank has not made enough progress, keeping his rate outlook | C
US I
It’s time to chill with all the recession talk | NN
Home-Buying Companies Stuck With Hundreds of Houses as Demand Slows | W
January used vehicle prices pop, according to Cox’s Manheim index | C
U.S. Business Owners Pay Premium to Hire Migrant Workers in Extremely Tight Labor Market | W
Households Burn Through What’s Left of Their Pandemic Savings | W
US II
Biden’s utter ‘no negotiations’ debt limit hypocrisy | P
Biden to Tout Economic Gains in State of the Union | W
The Continued Wrecking of New York City | Brownstone Institute
Will Home Prices Fall? NYC Suburbs Show Real Estate Demand Is High | B
Japan
Japan Ends Multibillion-Dollar Bid to Enter Passenger-Jet Market | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. Trade Deficit Hit Record in 2022 | W
U.S. seeks Chinese balloon remnants, says approach to China will stay calm | R
China spy balloon: New photos show the U.S. Navy recovering downed aircraft off U.S. coast | C
Industries & companies
Energy: BP Slows Transition to Renewable Energy as Oil Bonanza Continues | W
Tech: Zoom layoffs: Company to cut 1,300 employees | C
Technology
Commerce Officials to Detail Chips Act Application Process This Month | W
Beyond markets
Ransomware outbreak hits Florida Supreme Court, U.S. and European universities | R
The Blurred Lines Between Goldman C.E.O.’s Day Job and His D.J. Gig | N
