Morning Briefings
Expert market analysis delivered every morning. Stay informed with comprehensive research and data-driven insights.
Too Hot for Goldilocks?
(1) Back to the Old Normal business cycle with a boom followed by a bust? (2) Our “benchmark model” sees the next recession starting in March 2019. (3) Bill, Larry, Janet, and Ronnie. (4) Fed’s Goldilocks now worrying that the economy might run too hot. (5) Obama’s jobless rate followed same track as Reagan’s! (6) The hottest market in America. (7) Buddy, can you spare a worker? (8) Auto industry running out of capacity, especially for light trucks. (9) Lots of tonnage to truck. (10) Driving to and from, and for, work. (11) Trump is the New Abnormal. (12) Movie review: “The Founder” (+ + +).
Rising & Setting Suns
(1) Banner Q4 for big banks and brokers. (2) Financials fundamentals may be just starting to shine. (3) Room for improvement in IPOs, in M&As, and asset management. (4) Financials playing catch-up after lagging for so long. (5) No bullseye for Abe’s “three arrows.” (6) 2020 Olympics could boost Japan a bit for a little while. (7) Not much CPI and export bang from the depreciating yen. (8) Aging is a big drag in Japan, as population shrinks. (9) Abe was first foreign leader to visit Trump. (10) A couple of signs of life.
Method to His Madness?
(1) A matter of style. (2) The Great Disruptor. (3) Polonius, Hamlet, and Trump. (4) Queen Victoria needed a Twitter account. (5) Who is madder? (6) CEOs kissing Trump’s ring. (7) Trump says border tax too complicated. (8) Trump’s Rules for Wheeler Dealers: Negotiate from your strength, and find their weakness. (9) IMF also drinking the Kool-Aid. (10) S&P 500 revenues and earnings indicators are mostly upbeat. (11) Fed’s talking heads are talking about more rate hikes.
Happy Daze
(1) Harry, Dwight, and Donald. (2) The Donald and the Fonz. (3) Happy days in Bull-Bear Ratio and P/Es. (4) Will investors soon be dazed and confused? (5) Trump’s tax plan is very similar to Ryan’s “A Better Way.” (6) Corporations won’t be able to deduct interest expense under Ryan plan, and will have a choice in Trump plan. (7) Both plans would allow for current expensing of equipment. (8) Border tax is confusing and controversial. (9) Ross/Navarro have a plan to attract VCs and private-sector players to invest in infrastructure. (10) Trump is a one-man good-cop/bad-cop. (11) Trump’s “team of rivals” agree more with one another than with Trump. (12) Melissa compares Reaganomics and Trumponomics. (13) Movie review: “Lion” (+ + +).
Blockchain & Border Taxes
(1) Comforting Financials. (2) Rays of sunshine. (3) Lots of Financial industries basking in the sun. (4) Timely split from REITs. (5) Blockchain: The future is now, and so are the cost savings. (6) Bitcoin: Blockchain’s evil offspring? (7) Jackie interviews Jim Lucier, Capital Alpha’s tax wizard, on border tax. (8) Border tax proposal is an onion. (9) Kind of like a VAT. (10) The end of dodging taxes? (11) How corporate tax reform could boost dollar and lower interest rates.
Zoology
(1) Trump and animal spirits. (2) More than 2 million Google links. (3) Government vs. business experience. (4) Keynes was a zoologist too. (5) Small business owners (SBOs) are going wild. (6) SBOs matter because they do lots of hiring. (7) New problem for SBOs: Shortage of workers. (8) Earnings season should confirm recovery that started during Q3. (9) Why small stocks are beautiful. (10) US frackers sending thank-you notes to Saudis.
Let’s Get Fiscal
(1) BeeGees, Olivia Newton-John, and Janet Yellen. (2) Counting words: “Fiscal” and “dollar” pop up often in FOMC minutes. (3) Trump may fill the wishes of Fed officials for more fiscal stimulus. (4) Fed officials hoping that fiscal policy can lift R*. (5) Mixed with confusion. (6) Dollar strength reflecting divergence between Fed and other major central banks. (7) Foreigners scrambling to repay dollar-denominated debts that financed carry trades. (8) Constructing an implied capital flows proxy for the world ex-US. (9) Our proxy explains strength of the dollar. (10) So does the drop in non-gold international reserves.
Labor’s Turn & Turnover
(1) What do you get when you play country songs backwards? (2) Johnny Paycheck would have voted for Trump. (3) Tighter labor market reflected in higher wages and quits, which are boosting consumer confidence. (4) Earned Income Proxy at record high. (5) Retiring Baby Boomers boosting NILF count. (6) Is the yuan done going down yet? (7) PBOC desperate to hold onto 7.0 yuan/$ and $3.0 trillion reserves. (8) China’s capital controls are latest desperate measures. (9) Trump’s pick of US ambassador to China is BFF of Xi. (10) Movie: “Hidden Figures” (+ +).
Leading from Behind
(1) Stay home, go global, or emerge? (2) Trump favors “Stay Home” investment strategy. (3) Commodity prices seem to matter more for emerging markets than does the Fed or the dollar. (4) Asian economies doing well now, but facing Trump tweets on trade. (5) Profits rising in China. (6) South Korea has a political crisis, while India has a currency crisis. (7) Taiwan’s M-PMI confirming upturn in tech business. (8) Brazil remains in deep recession, while Mexico may be starting to stumble on troubles north of the border. (9) Jackie explains Health Care’s wounded performance. (10) Is a shortage of new drugs pushing up prices of old drugs? (11) Drug distributors getting squeezed.
Who’s Afraid of the Big Bad Wolf?
(1) He will huff and puff, but will he blow the house down? (2) Time for lots of little piggies to shape up? (3) Wish list full of wishful thinking? (4) Lil’ Kim and the Supremes. (5) Impressive, but not unprecedented, rally in stocks since T-Day. (6) Investors are front-running Trump’s tax cuts. (7) Reaganomics faced completely different economy than Trumponomics. (8) Lots of upbeat M-PMIs. (9) Boom-Bust Barometer booming, which is bullish for S&P 500 forward earnings and stock index. (10) China’s M-PMI price index confirms upturn in PPI inflation rate.
Rogue One
(1) Prequels and sequels. (2) Going rogue on 2017 earnings outlook. (3) Does it matter whether tax cuts start in 2017 or 2018? (4) S&P 500 forward revenues and earnings rising to record highs. (5) Energy industry’s recession is over, and it didn’t spill over to the broader economy. (6) Consumer optimism booming since Election Day. (7) Trump’s “America First” inspired by Lord Palmerston. (8) Radical regime change: From community organizers to dealmakers. (9) Two kinds of rogues. (10) May the force be with us. (11) “Rogue One” (-).