Interactive Tool
FOMC Policy Meter
Track Federal Reserve policy stance across FOMC meetings on a dovish-to-hawkish scale with factor-by-factor comparison.
Dovish
Dovish
Hawkish
Hawkish
The June statement is incrementally more hawkish than April — the fractured dissent bloc has been replaced by unanimous 12-0 consensus around a hold, the inflation language remains 'elevated' with supply shocks and energy explicitly cited, and the blunt new pledge to 'deliver price stability' signals a hardened anti-inflation commitment with no easing bias whatsoever.
Hawkish
Three dissents in favor of an immediate 25bp hike represent a significant hawkish escalation from June's unanimous hold, signaling that a meaningful minority of the Committee believes current policy is insufficiently restrictive — with inflation still 'elevated' and no easing language anywhere in the statement, the path of least resistance is higher for longer or higher.
| June 17, 2026 | Factor | July 29, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Rates held unchanged at 3.50–3.75% for a third consecutive meeting, maintaining a restrictive posture with no movement toward easing. Neutral Hold | Rate Action | Rates held unchanged at 3.50–3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, maintaining a restrictive posture with no movement toward easing. Neutral Hold |
A unanimous 12-0 vote to hold — the prior meeting's dovish dissenter (Miran) and hawkish dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) all converged on the hold, eliminating any easing signal from dissent and reflecting Committee-wide consensus around patience. Unified Hawkish Hold | Vote Unity | A fractured 9-3 vote with Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan all dissenting in favor of a 25bp hike — the largest hawkish dissent bloc in this cycle, representing 25% of voting members pushing for immediate tightening. Significant Hawkish Dissent |
No forward guidance toward cuts is offered; the statement contains zero easing language, and the new 'deliver price stability' pledge raises the bar for any near-term pivot. No Easing Signal | Future Cuts | Zero easing language or forward guidance toward cuts; the statement contains no dovish signals whatsoever, and the unconditional 'deliver price stability' pledge continues to set a high bar for any pivot. No Easing Signal |
No explicit hike language, but the unqualified commitment to 'deliver price stability' and persistent inflation framing keep tightening optionality firmly on the table. Tightening Optionality Preserved | Hike Risk | Three voting members explicitly preferred a hike at this meeting, making rate increases a live and credible near-term risk rather than a theoretical tail scenario. Hike Risk Elevated |
Inflation characterized as 'elevated' relative to the 2% goal with supply shocks and energy prices cited as drivers — language consistent with April but now paired with a stronger, unconditional price stability pledge. Persistently Hawkish | Inflation View | Inflation characterized as 'elevated' relative to the 2% goal with supply shocks and energy prices cited as persistent drivers — identical hawkish framing to June with no softening language. Persistently Hawkish |
The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves with no changes to balance sheet policy, signaling continuity and no incremental easing impulse. Neutral | Balance Sheet | The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves with no changes to balance sheet policy, signaling continuity and no incremental easing impulse. Neutral |