Interactive Tool
FOMC Policy Meter
Track Federal Reserve policy stance across FOMC meetings on a dovish-to-hawkish scale with factor-by-factor comparison.
Dovish
Dovish
Hawkish
Hawkish
Three dissents in favor of an immediate 25bp hike represent a significant hawkish escalation from June's unanimous hold, signaling that a meaningful minority of the Committee believes current policy is insufficiently restrictive — with inflation still 'elevated' and no easing language anywhere in the statement, the path of least resistance is higher for longer or higher.
Hawkish
The Committee executed a unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00%, resolving July's three-way dissent in favor of tightening and signaling that the majority view has now fully aligned with the hawks — with inflation still 'elevated,' no easing language, and an unconditional price stability pledge, this is an active tightening cycle with no end in sight.
| July 29, 2026 | Factor | September 16, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Rates held unchanged at 3.50–3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, maintaining a restrictive posture with no movement toward easing. Neutral Hold | Rate Action | A 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00% marks the first rate increase in this cycle's current phase, directly validating the hawkish dissents from July and escalating the restrictive policy stance. Active Tightening |
A fractured 9-3 vote with Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan all dissenting in favor of a 25bp hike — the largest hawkish dissent bloc in this cycle, representing 25% of voting members pushing for immediate tightening. Significant Hawkish Dissent | Vote Unity | A unanimous 12-0 vote in favor of the hike is a powerful hawkish signal — the entire Committee, including previously neutral members, has coalesced around tightening with no dovish dissents. Unanimous Hawkish Consensus |
Zero easing language or forward guidance toward cuts; the statement contains no dovish signals whatsoever, and the unconditional 'deliver price stability' pledge continues to set a high bar for any pivot. No Easing Signal | Future Cuts | There is zero easing language or forward guidance toward cuts; the statement contains no dovish pivot signals and the unconditional 'deliver price stability' pledge sets an extremely high bar for any future easing. No Easing Signal |
Three voting members explicitly preferred a hike at this meeting, making rate increases a live and credible near-term risk rather than a theoretical tail scenario. Hike Risk Elevated | Hike Risk | With a unanimous hike just delivered and inflation still characterized as 'elevated,' additional rate increases remain a live and credible near-term risk with no language ruling out further tightening. Further Hikes Credible |
Inflation characterized as 'elevated' relative to the 2% goal with supply shocks and energy prices cited as persistent drivers — identical hawkish framing to June with no softening language. Persistently Hawkish | Inflation View | Inflation is described simply as 'elevated' with today's hike explicitly framed as supporting a 'timelier return' to the 2% goal — language implying the Committee believes current policy was previously insufficient. Persistently Elevated |
The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves with no changes to balance sheet policy, signaling continuity and no incremental easing impulse. Neutral | Balance Sheet | The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves with no changes to balance sheet policy, providing no incremental easing offset to the rate hike. Neutral Continuity |