FOMC Policy Meter
Track Federal Reserve policy stance across FOMC meetings on a dovish-to-hawkish scale with factor-by-factor comparison.
Dovish
Dovish
Hawkish
Hawkish
Hold unanimous. Rate hikes explicitly floated. High bar set before any cuts resume.
Dovish
The Fed held rates unchanged with one dovish dissent from Miran, but the statement retains a cautious, data-dependent tone with no meaningful softening on inflation or forward guidance — a modest step toward neutral relative to January's more explicitly hawkish posture.
| Jan 2026 | Factor | March 18, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Unanimous hold at 3.50–3.75% Neutral | Rate Action | Unanimous hold maintained at 3.50–3.75%, with no change in the policy rate for another meeting. Neutral |
Unanimous hold, but some pushed for a "two-sided" framing on future moves Hawkish Signal | Vote Unity | One dovish dissent from Miran, who preferred a 25bp cut, introducing an easing-leaning split in the Committee for the first time. Dovish Signal |
Cuts require "clear indication" disinflation is firmly back on track Hawkish | Future Cuts | Forward guidance remains data-dependent with no explicit easing bias; the bar for cuts is still framed as careful assessment of incoming data and evolving risks. Neutral |
Some officials explicitly raised the possibility of rate hikes More Hawkish | Hike Risk | No explicit mention of rate hikes, and the two-sided risk framing from January has softened, reducing but not eliminating tightening optionality. Marginally Less Hawkish |
Overshoot risk called "meaningful"; progress slow and uneven Hawkish | Inflation View | Inflation described as 'somewhat elevated,' maintaining a cautious but not alarming characterization with no signal of renewed acceleration. Mildly Hawkish |
Continued T-bill purchases; no new balance sheet moves Neutral | Balance Sheet | No changes to balance sheet policy mentioned, implying continuation of the existing QT/T-bill purchase framework. Neutral |