Beige Book Monitor

Eleven of twelve districts reported slight-to-moderate growth, up from ten in the prior period. San Francisco was the lone flat district. Composition remains uneven, with data center and defense demand anchoring manufacturing while consumer stress widens.

Mixed nationally — World Cup tourism provided a visible lift in several districts, but lower- and middle-income household stress deepened. Trading-down behavior is now universal. Auto sales flat to slightly down; repair and parts spending rising as consumers hold vehicles longer.

Modest-to-moderate growth in most districts, consistent with the prior period. Data center, defense, and machinery demand remain primary drivers. Supply chain disruptions became more common, and Cleveland noted deceleration from prior robust pace.

Meaningful improvement — five districts reported modest-to-solid employment gains, up from only one in the prior period. Low-hire, low-fire environment is easing. Skilled worker shortages persist across technicians, tradespeople, and specialized roles.

Modest-to-moderate wage growth persisted across most districts, consistent with the prior period. Two districts reported only slight increases. No acceleration nationally; some easing of wage pressure noted in Minneapolis and San Francisco.

Inflation decelerated from the prior edition — price growth was the same or slower in all twelve districts. Nine districts report moderate growth, two robust, one slight. Input cost pressures remain elevated but pass-through to selling prices has slowed, widening margin compression.

Mixed nationally — residential markets remain constrained by affordability, elevated mortgage rates, and low inventory. Commercial real estate varied by segment, with data center and Class A office strength offsetting industrial and multifamily softness. Overall slightly improved from prior red signal.

Broadly stable with modest loan volume growth in several districts. Credit standards tightened slightly in some markets. Consumer loan quality ticked down in several districts; commercial quality generally stable. Loan demand improving modestly on balance.

Activity up modestly overall, with health care and professional services leading gains. World Cup provided a tourism boost in several districts. New York services picked up after a long period of weakness. San Francisco services ticked down slightly.

Marginally improved — most districts expect slight-to-moderate growth to continue. Elevated uncertainty around fuel costs and geopolitical developments persists. No district reported outright pessimism; several noted improved business optimism, particularly New York and Dallas.