FOMC Minutes Monitor

Almost all participants supported holding rates steady at 3.50–3.75%, judging policy to be within a broad range of neutral after 75bp of cuts in 2025. Several participants wanted '…

Core PCE at 2.8–3.0%, still well above 2% target. Most participants cautioned progress could be 'slower and more uneven' than expected. Core goods inflation boosted by tariffs; hou…

Unemployment at 4.4% in December, stabilizing. Average payroll gains held up in Nov–Dec after October's government-layoff distortion. Hiring remains low, but layoffs also low. A 'v…

Real GDP continued to expand at a solid pace through 2025, slightly below 2024's rate. Government shutdown shaved ~1pp from Q4 GDP growth. Private domestic final purchases showed m…

Consumption remained resilient, supported by household wealth gains. Growing disparity flagged: higher-income spending firm, lower-income consumers showing softness. Credit card an…

Tariffs identified as the primary driver of elevated core goods inflation. Most expected effects to wane in H2 2026, but business contacts report plans to raise prices further. Tra…

Broad equity indexes up modestly. Large-cap tech underperformed on valuation concerns, but cyclicals and small-caps rallied. Credit spreads remained low by historical standards. Mo…

Decisive shift: 'vast majority' judged employment downside risks had moderated while inflation persistence risk remained elevated. Some said risks now 'in better balance.' Several …

Reserve management purchases (RMPs) ongoing; reserves expected to fluctuate near $3 trillion. Year-end funding pressures subdued thanks to RMPs, standing repo changes, and lower TG…

10–2 vote, much more cohesive than December's contentious 9–3. Two dissenters (Miran, Waller) are consistent doves. Majority firmly in the hold camp, with a hawkish subset wanting …