FOMC Minutes Monitor

The hold was near-unanimous, but the real signal is the 3-member hawkish dissent against the easing bias in the statement — the most significant internal fracture on forward guidan…

Core PCE rose to an estimated 3.2% in March, up from 3.0% in February, with total PCE at 3.5% on energy. The staff identified emergent price pressures in categories unrelated to ta…

Unemployment edged down to 4.3% in March, and most participants judged that recent data suggested stabilization rather than fragility. Job gains remained low but were seen as rough…

Real GDP growth described as solid, with Q1 picking up as government shutdown effects unwound. Private domestic final purchases rose at a slightly faster pace than the prior year a…

Consumer spending described as resilient, supported by high household wealth and fiscal policy. However, higher energy prices were explicitly cited as straining lower-income househ…

Tariffs continued to be identified as a primary driver of elevated core goods inflation, with several participants noting that tariff rates could be increased above present levels,…

Broad equity prices more than reversed their March declines, with technology stocks leading gains on cease-fire optimism and strong earnings. Corporate bond spreads narrowed across…

Both upside inflation risks and downside employment risks remained elevated, but the balance tilted further toward inflation dominance in April. The vast majority of participants f…

Reserve management purchases continued, with reserves remaining in the ample range through the April tax date. The April tax payment induced a large but orderly decline in reserves…

The effective 8–4 split on the postmeeting statement is the most fractured vote of the current cycle. Three members — Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan — dissented hawkishly against the…