FOMC Minutes Monitor

The unanimous removal of the easing bias and its replacement with 'The Committee will deliver price stability' is the most hawkish statement language since the 2022–2023 tightening…

Core PCE rose to 3.3% in April and was estimated at 3.4% in May; total PCE hit an estimated 4.1% in May. Price pressures broadened to transportation, airfares, petrochemicals, and …

Unemployment held at 4.3% in May, and payroll gains strengthened and appeared consistent with labor force growth. Several participants noted that earlier concerns about labor marke…

Real GDP continued to expand at a solid pace, with private domestic final purchases picking up in Q2 and rising faster than GDP. AI-related capital investment showed no signs of sl…

Consumer spending was solid overall, supported by stock market gains and earlier tax refunds, particularly for higher-income households. However, lower-income households were incre…

Tariff pass-through continued to be identified as a primary driver of elevated core goods inflation, compounded by Middle East supply disruptions. Several participants noted that b…

The S&P 500 rose nearly 6% over the intermeeting period, led by technology on AI earnings optimism. Corporate bond spreads narrowed, leveraged loan issuance picked up to a robust p…

Participants assessed that upside risks to price stability remained elevated while downside risks to maximum employment had moderated. The staff viewed inflation risks as more skew…

Reserve management purchases continued, with reserves remaining in the ample range. Repo rates dropped sharply in mid-May before partially rebounding, with the effective federal fu…

The 12–0 unanimous vote represents a dramatic surface-level consolidation from April's fractured 8–4 split, but the consensus was achieved by moving the statement hawkish — not by …