FOMC Minutes Monitor

Almost all participants supported holding at 3.50–3.75%, with the policy rate viewed as within a plausible range of neutral. Forward guidance shifted to explicitly two-sided: many …

Core PCE rose to 3.1% in January and was estimated at 3.0% in February, moving in the wrong direction. Core goods inflation remains well above target, driven by tariffs. Near-term …

Unemployment held at 4.4% but job gains remained low, and the vast majority of participants judged downside employment risks as elevated. Several participants flagged softening sig…

Real GDP growth described as solid, with Q1 picking up as government shutdown effects unwound. Private domestic final purchases growth stepped up. However, the staff downgraded its…

Consumer spending described as resilient, supported by household wealth gains. However, participants flagged that substantially higher oil prices could reduce households' purchasin…

Tariffs continued to be identified as the primary driver of elevated core goods inflation, with the rate of increase 'well above' the pace consistent with 2%. Participants noted th…

Broad equity prices fell about 5% over the intermeeting period, with software and AI-exposed sectors hit hardest. Treasury yields rose at the short end, driven by higher inflation …

The vast majority of participants judged that both upside inflation risks and downside employment risks were elevated — a genuinely two-sided risk posture distinct from January's i…

Reserve management purchases (RMPs) continued, with SOMA holdings expected to grow. After April tax season, the monthly pace of RMPs is expected to be reduced significantly as swin…

The 11–1 vote is more cohesive than January's 10–2, with Waller rejoining the majority and Miran remaining the sole dovish dissenter. However, internal debate has become more compl…