Interactive Tool
FOMC SEP Monitor
Compare Federal Reserve median economic projections and dot plot distributions across FOMC meetings.
Meeting
Decision
Hold at 3.50%–3.75%
Vote
11-1 (Miran dissented — preferred a 25bp cut)
Meeting Date
March 17–18, 2026
| 2025Dec 2025 only | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | Longer Run | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Chg | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Chg | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Chg | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Chg | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Chg | |
| GDP & Unemployment | |||||||||||||||
Real GDP Q4/Q4 % chg | 1.7 | n/a | — | 2.3 | 2.4 | +0.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | +0.3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | +0.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | +0.2 |
Unemployment Rate Q4 avg, % | 4.5 | n/a | — | 4.4 | 4.4 | — | 4.2 | 4.3 | +0.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | — | 4.2 | 4.2 | — |
| Inflation | |||||||||||||||
PCE Inflation Q4/Q4 % chg | 2.9 | n/a | — | 2.4 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | +0.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | — | 2.0 | 2.0 | — |
Core PCE Inflation Q4/Q4 % chg | 3.0 | n/a | — | 2.5 | 2.7 | +0.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | +0.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | — | — | — | — |
| Fed Funds Rate | |||||||||||||||
Fed Funds Rate yr-end midpoint, % | 3.6 | n/a | — | 3.4 | 3.4 | — | 3.1 | 3.1 | — | 3.1 | 3.1 | — | 3.0 | 3.1 | +0.1 |
Implied moves from 3.625% | Hold | n/a | — | 1 cut | 1 cut | — | 2 cuts | 2 cuts | — | 2 cuts | 2 cuts | — | 3 cuts | 2 cuts | -1 |
Green = easing / growth-positiveRed = tightening / growth-negativeAmber = higher FFRBlue = lower FFR / implied cutsSource: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections
Dec 2025 → Mar 2026
Real GDP
Q4/Q4 % chg
2025
1.7n/a
2026
2.3→2.4+0.1
2027
2.0→2.3+0.3
2028
1.9→2.1+0.2
Longer Run
1.8→2.0+0.2
Unemployment Rate
Q4 avg, %
2025
4.5n/a
2026
4.4→4.4—
2027
4.2→4.3+0.1
2028
4.2→4.2—
Longer Run
4.2→4.2—
PCE Inflation
Q4/Q4 % chg
2025
2.9n/a
2026
2.4→2.7+0.3
2027
2.1→2.2+0.1
2028
2.0→2.0—
Longer Run
2.0→2.0—
Core PCE Inflation
Q4/Q4 % chg
2025
3.0n/a
2026
2.5→2.7+0.2
2027
2.1→2.2+0.1
2028
2.0→2.0—
Longer Run
——
Fed Funds Rate
yr-end midpoint, %
2025
3.6n/a
2026
3.4→3.4—
2027
3.1→3.1—
2028
3.1→3.1—
Longer Run
3.0→3.1+0.1
Implied moves from 3.625%
2025
Hold—
2026
1 cut→1 cut
2027
2 cuts→2 cuts
2028
2 cuts→2 cuts
Longer Run
3 cuts→2 cuts
Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections
LegendGreen = easing / growth-positiveRed = tightening / growth-negativeAmber = higher FFRBlue = lower FFRSource: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections