November 30 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: 2024 Is Coming!
As 2023 approaches and progresses, it will be the 2024 outlook that the stock market increasingly will discount. Today, we examine the stock market equation P = P/E x E, with E representing S&P 500 forward earnings, in the context of both the consensus and our expectations for earnings and the economic backdrop next year and in 2024. … Also: The inverted yield curve is predicting neither a credit crunch nor a recession, in our view. This time, it may be anticipating a hasty retreat of inflation. That could mean that the yields on both the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries are peaking.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 28.
Markets
The Best Stocks to Buy Next Year as Inflation Dies | InvestorPlace
Junk Bonds Rally as Investors Speculate Inflation Has Peaked | W
Central banks
Eurozone Inflation Eased in November, but Further Rate Rises Likely | W
Elon Musk says the Fed must cut rates ‘immediately’ to stop a severe recession | C
US
Job Openings Report to Indicate Tightness of Labor Market | W
Private hiring increased by just 127,000 jobs in November, well below estimate, ADP reports | C
Mortgage rates fall for the third straight week, but demand still drops further | C
What Congress could do to avoid a rail strike — and why unions are upset | Vox
China
Two Chinese cities ease COVID curbs after protests spread | R
Jiang Zemin, Leader Who Presided Over China’s Economic Rise, Dies at 96 | W
Geopolitics & trade
Chinese Startups Try to Make It Big in the U.S.—but Without the Backlash | W
Why Macron? Biden state dinner highlights France's U.S. appeal | R
Industries & companies
Media: Opinion | Why Disney Fans Celebrated the Firing of Bob Chapek | N
Retail: Amazon records biggest ever Thanksgiving shopping weekend | Reuters
Crypto
European Central Bank says bitcoin is on the 'road to irrelevance' | C
Early Alameda Staffers Quit After Battling Sam Bankman-Fried Over Risk, Compliance Concerns | W
Climate
COP27's green agenda will leave many out in the cold this winter | WT
November 29 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Anxious Index
If the economy is in for a hard landing next year, it would be the most widely anticipated recession ever. The Philly Fed’s survey of forecasters, the WSJ’s survey of economists, and even the Misery Index that reflects the sum of unemployment and inflation rates point to a recession. … But we think this time is different. There’s been no broad-based credit crunch, liquidity is ample, consumer incomes are growing, multi-family housing remains strong, capital spending does too, and fiscal stimulus has been gushing. Real GDP shouldn’t contract in such an environment but grow, slowly but surely. We’re in the soft-landing camp.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 28.
Markets
Dow tumbles 500 points but could actually end the year in the green | NN
Stocks close lower, Dow drops nearly 500 points as supply chain concerns mount amid protests in China | C
Central banks
Fed has 'a ways to go' on interest rate hikes, Bullard says | R
Fed’s Williams Says Inflation Fight Could Last Into 2024 | W
Resolute and Mindful: The Path to Price Stability | FRBSF
US
400 groups urge U.S. lawmakers to take 'immediate steps' to block potential rail strike | R
Job Cuts in Tech and Banking Don't Mean Mass Layoffs in Looming Global Recession | B
Joe Biden wastes billions on COVID boosters vaccines | P
China
China Clamps Down on Protesters Against Zero-Covid Policies | W
Chinese Protests Put Xi Jinping in a Bind | W
Protests against Covid controls erupt across China | C
Geopolitics & trade
White House Says Chinese Have a Right to Peacefully Protest | W
Russia Cancels Arms-Control Talks, U.S. Says | W
Industries & companies
Media: Elon Musk claims Apple has threatened to remove the Twitter app | C
Retail: Returns Are the Retail Industry’s Quietly Mounting Logistics Problem | W
Tech: Exclusive: Microsoft likely to offer EU concessions soon in Activision deal -sources | R
Crypto
BlockFi Bankruptcy: More Crypto Trader Funds Trapped After FTX Collapse | B
How FTX 'death spiral' spelled doom for BlockFi, according to filing | C
FTX: The Enron case on steroids, fueled by woke capitalism | The Hill
Corporate finance
Shell to Buy Biogas Producer in $2 Billion Deal | W
Climate
U.S. warns California cities possible water cuts in fourth dry year | C
Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Volcano Is Erupting for the First Time Since 1984 | W
Idealab, Heliogen founder Bill Gross sold solar energy kits in 1973 | C
ESG
Sign of the times: BlackRock closes ESG fund due to lack of interest, amid poor performance - Citywire | Twitter
Populist House Republicans Picking a Fight With US Business Over ‘Woke Capitalism’ | R
November 28 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: 2023 Is Coming!
The consensus is now bracing for a 2023 recession that tempers inflation and ends the Fed’s reign of tightening but also depresses corporate earnings, suggesting more downside for stocks’ valuation multiples. We’re more optimistic, expecting no broad-based recession but a rolling one, no continued bear market in stocks but sluggish earnings limiting their upside. … Both scenarios hinge on inflation: If it remains persistently high despite having peaked, expect a broad-based recession and all that entails. If not, the 2023 outlook will be brighter. … Also: A look at data supporting both soft- and hard-landing scenarios. … And: What the Fed might do next.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 14.
Markets
Stocks Are on the Rise, but Earnings Could Drag Them Down Again | W
Xi Jinping’s big bang for Chinese stock markets | E
Oil Prices Face Fresh Volatility With New Russia Sanctions, OPEC Decision | W
Global
Globalized Supply Chain Brings More-Turbulent Food Prices | W
Energy
The Next U.S. Energy Revolution Is Here | BR
The costs and consequences of Europe’s energy crisis are growing | E
US I
Why the nation is once again close to a devastating freight railroad strike | MSN
With unions aligned, timeline for rail strike and railroad emergency prep is now clear | MSN
Biden’s Railroad Deal Falls Apart | W
US II
New Help for a Group at Risk for Suicide: Middle-Aged Men | W
California’s Homelessness Problem Pits Gov. Gavin Newsom Against Mayors | W
Employers Rethink Need for College Degrees in Tight Labor Market | W
Europe
German Consumers Are Boosting the Economy. These Stocks Stand to Gain. | BR
Europe faces an enduring crisis of energy and geopolitics | E
China
China’s Economy Faces Challenges Despite Latest Moves to Stimulate Growth | W
Clashes in Shanghai as COVID protests flare across China | R
Protests against Covid controls erupt across China | C
China Could Reignite Its Growth. How to Play It While Limiting Risks. | BR
Geopolitics & trade
In Ukraine, living as normal is an act of defiance | E
Zelenskiy warns Ukraine to brace for more Russian attacks | R
South Korea govt plans first talks with striking truckers | R
Industries & companies
Logistics: The Logistics and Supply-Chain Slowdown Has Begun. Here’s How to Take Advantage. | W
Media: Disney is the biggest winner and loser at the Thanksgiving box office | C
Retail: Black Friday online sales top $9 billion in new record | C
Retail: Black Friday 2022: Walmart overtakes Amazon in shoppers' search for bargains | C
Tech: Tech's reality check: How the industry lost $7.4 trillion in one year | C
Technology
Quantum Computing Will Change the World. How to Play the Stocks. | BR
Beyond markets
Caroline Ellison Was a Little-Known Crypto Trader. Then FTX Collapsed. | NYT
What is long-termism? | E
The U.S. is 'certainly' still in a Covid-19 pandemic, Dr. Fauci says | C
November 21 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Thanksgiving In The Twilight Zone
While Covid-19 has upended life the world over, Americans have plenty of blessings to count this Thanksgiving. The US economy continues to grow, employment continues to expand, and consumers continue to spend. Although the single-family housing industry is in recession, multi-family housing starts are going strong. The auto industry is also doing well despite tighter credit conditions. Capital spending remains robust. The nasty supply-chain disruptions that had fueled high inflation appear to be over. And the US fossil fuel industry not only is meeting domestic energy needs but exporting to help meet Europe’s.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 14.
Markets
Energy shares, China COVID cases weigh on Wall St; Disney jumps | R
Central banks
Fed’s Aggressive Rate Hikes Are a Game Changer | W
The Federal Reserve Is Surely Not the Cause of Silicon Valley’s Swinging Ax | FO
Energy
U.S. Crude Oil Price Falls Below $80 a Barrel | W
Saudi Arabia Eyes OPEC+ Output Increase Ahead of Restrictions on Russian Oil | W
America must future-proof its energy sector with nuclear power | Washington Examiner
US
Stressed-Out Americans Plan to Buy Fewer Christmas Gifts, Donate Less to Charity | W
DeSantis, Others Draw Distinctions With Trump in 2024 GOP Nomination Race | W
Democrats must protect Social Security by raising the debt ceiling | The Hill
China
Mainland China reports first Covid-related deaths since Shanghai lockdown | C
Geopolitics & trade
China Turns to Back-Channel Diplomacy to Shore Up U.S. Ties | W
Top Russian official warns of possible nuclear accident at Zaporizhzhia | R
Explainer: Ukrainian nuclear plant shelled: Here's what we know | R
Industries & companies
Media: How Elon Musk is changing Twitter, from mass layoffs to check marks | Vox
Media: 'It's over': Twitter France's head quits amid layoffs | R
Media: Disney blindsided Chapek with decision to replace him with Iger | C
Retail: Retailers Are Expecting Unpredictable Holiday Sales. These Companies Will Come Out On Top. | BR
Corporate finance
Biden grants PG&E $1.1 billion to keep Diablo Canyon nuclear plant open | C
Crypto
Is this the end of crypto? | E
Collapsed crypto exchange FTX owes top 50 creditors $3 billion: Filing | C
Beyond markets
NASA's Orion spacecraft flies by the moon on Artemis 1 mission | C
Opinion | Musk, Bezos, Bankman-Fried, Trump: It Was a Bad Week for Billionaires | N
Sam Bankman-Fried tries to broker FTX bailout from his Bahamas home | C
November 19 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Consumers, Chips & The Oceans
Consumers are still spending robustly in many categories, as the surprisingly strong retail sales report for October showed. But Walmart and Target brass speaking on Q3 conference calls described heightened budget consciousness across income demographics. And while consumers have income, their balance sheets have been weakening as they take on more debt. … Are semiconductor stocks becoming attractive at their depressed valuations? Perhaps, but news this week reminds us why valuations are so depressed—demand is weak and analysts pessimistic. … Also: The oceans are about to get greener if innovative solutions employing AI, 3D printing, and low-tech dragnets succeed.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 15.
Markets
S&P 500 closes higher on Friday, but ends week with losses | C
Higher Rates Mean “Bonds Are Back,” JPMorgan’s Michele Says | B
Central banks
NY Fed: Bank liquidity may be tighter than thought, with policy implications | R
Fed’s Susan Collins Says Her View on Rate Hikes Unchanged by Recent Data | B
US
U.S. Home Sales Fell for Ninth Straight Month in October | W
As Republicans Take Command in House, Fight Over 2023 Farm Bill Looms | W
Geopolitics & trade
North Korea’s Kim Reveals Daughter to Public at ICBM Launch | B
Larry Summers Warns Very Risky for US to Aim at ‘Tearing China Down’ | B
Industries & companies
Airlines: What Do the Worst (and Best) Airports Look Like? Ask United Airlines | W
Autos: Tesla recalls 321,000 U.S. vehicles over rear light issue | R
Media: Musk’s Twitter Fix-It Team Fades Out as Billionaire Says Transition Is Almost Done | B
Retail: Home Depot and Lowe's are booming in a housing market bust | C
Retail: Follow these rules from experts to get the most out of Black Friday | C
Tech: Why Everything in Tech Seems to Be Collapsing at Once | The Atlantic
Theme Parks: Disney Parks’ Ride Stoppages and Wait Times Grow as Ticket Prices Rise | W
Corporate finance
How Did AT&T’s $100 Billion Time Warner Deal Go So Wrong? | N
Climate
COP27 Agrees on Loss and Damage Fund for Vulnerable Countries, Officials Say | W
Crypto
They Lived Together, Worked Together and Lost Billions Together: Inside Sam Bankman-Fried’s Doomed FTX Empire | W
FTX launches strategic review, seeks court relief to pay critical vendors | C
Beyond markets
Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes sentenced to over 11 years in prison | C
November 18 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Consumers, Chips & The Oceans
Consumers are still spending robustly in many categories, as the surprisingly strong retail sales report for October showed. But Walmart and Target brass speaking on Q3 conference calls described heightened budget consciousness across income demographics. And while consumers have income, their balance sheets have been weakening as they take on more debt. … Are semiconductor stocks becoming attractive at their depressed valuations? Perhaps, but news this week reminds us why valuations are so depressed—demand is weak and analysts pessimistic. … Also: The oceans are about to get greener if innovative solutions employing AI, 3D printing, and low-tech dragnets succeed.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 15.
Markets
Wall Street seen opening higher but U.S. recession priced in | R
‘Exhausted’ sellers are behind the market’s strength | C
Central banks
Fed's Bullard says rate hikes have had 'only limited effects' on inflation so far | C
ECB begins great cash mop-up as banks repay 296 bln euros of loans | R
Energy
Nord Stream: Sweden says explosives found at site of Russian pipelines | C
Oil heads for second weekly decline as demand concerns weigh | R
'Indiscriminate use of hydrogen' could slow energy transition: Report | C
US
Stagnant Scientific Productivity Holding Back Growth | W
Inflation and Unemployment Both Make You Miserable, but Maybe Not Equally | W
60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck heading into 2022 holiday | C
Fearing Future Losses, More Republicans Look to Move On From Trump | W
China
Column: China’s fast-growing renewables limit coal generation | R
Industries & companies
Autos: GM investor day: Barra expects EV profit to be comparable to gas vehicles by 2025 | C
Media: What Elon Musk memo to Twitter workers means for his FTC troubles | MSNBC
Media: After Elon Musk's ultimatum, Twitter employees start exiting | R
Retail: Early Black Friday 'deals' abound, but actual bargains are scarce | R
Tech: Meta Employees, Security Guards Fired for Hijacking User Accounts | W
Crypto
Opinion | Is This the End Game for Crypto? | NYT
Crypto firm Multicoin says contagion fallout from FTX will continue | C
Interview: Fallen crypto CEO Sam Bankman-Fried opens up about FTX, Alameda Research, and his regrets | Vox
FTX filing reveals slipshod accounting, freewheeling expenses, perks | C
FTX Disclosed Related-Party Transactions but Didn’t Name Names | W
Beyond markets
Taylor Swift public ticket sale canceled over extreme demand, Ticketmaster says | C
November 17 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Consumers, Chips & The Oceans
Consumers are still spending robustly in many categories, as the surprisingly strong retail sales report for October showed. But Walmart and Target brass speaking on Q3 conference calls described heightened budget consciousness across income demographics. And while consumers have income, their balance sheets have been weakening as they take on more debt. … Are semiconductor stocks becoming attractive at their depressed valuations? Perhaps, but news this week reminds us why valuations are so depressed—demand is weak and analysts pessimistic. … Also: The oceans are about to get greener if innovative solutions employing AI, 3D printing, and low-tech dragnets succeed.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 15.
Markets
Stocks Slip After Retail Sales Top Forecasts | W
Central banks
Reducing Inflation Without a Recession Might Not Be Feasible, Fed Official Says | W
Fed's Waller says he's open to a half-point hike at December meeting | C
Yellen Meets China’s Central Bank Governor as U.S. Seeks to Repair Ties With Beijing | W
US
U.S. Consumers Show Strength With Jump in Retail Sales | W
Republicans win U.S. House majority, setting stage for divided government | R
How to stop inflation | WT
Industries & companies
Autos: Elon Musk Recently Floated Possibility of Having a Successor at Tesla, a Board Member Says | W
Home Builders: Home-Builder Stocks Stage Big Rebound | W
Tech: Micron to Cut Production of Memory Chips | W
Theme Parks: Disney World Announces Another Round of Price Increases | W
Geopolitics & trade
Missile Blast in Poland Risked Russia-NATO Clash Before Both Sides Dialed Back | W
Targeting of Ukrainian energy grid is a war crime, Pentagon says | C
Putin calls for price controls as Russian car sales crash to record low | R
Analysis: China's freeze on Taiwan contact fuels worry as tensions build | R
Crypto
Gemini, BlockFi, Genesis announcing new restrictions as FTX contagion spreads | C
Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX, and the beginning of the crypto ice age | Vox
FTX wanted to let investors borrow to trade derivatives: CFTC head | C
How Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX-Alameda crypto empire vanished overnight | C
Beyond markets
ESG: BlackRock’s Hard Place | National Review
November 16 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Inflation & Financial Stability
The inflation-is-peaking euphoria that’s driven the stock market skyward in recent days adds to our confidence that the bear market bottomed on October 12. … The latest batch of inflation indicators was mixed but overall suggests progress in the right direction, which may mean the Fed has done enough tightening already. … Don’t fear systemic effects from the bursting of the cryptocurrency bubble—US banks are just fine. … Also: Melissa examines what the Fed thinks about the resilience of the US financial system, recapping points from its latest Financial Stability Report.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 15.
Markets
S&P 500 closes higher after another lighter-than-expected inflation report, Nasdaq jumps 1.4% | C
Wall Street gains on inflation data, but rocky on geopolitics | R
Central banks
Banking giants and New York Fed start 12-week digital dollar pilot | R
Energy
Russian Oil Exports Hold Up Despite Impending EU Ban | W
Half of France’s Nuclear Plants Are Off-Line | N
US
U.S. Supplier Price Increases Eased in October, Taking Pressure Off Inflation | W
Mortgage Rates Are High Because Nobody Is Buying Mortgages | W
Household debt soars at fastest pace in 15 years as credit card use surges, Fed report says | C
Republicans on Verge of Retaking House as Counting Continues | W
As Trump readies possible 2024 White House run, GOP megadonors back DeSantis, Youngkin, other Republicans | C
Uncle Sam is playing the same game as broke, disgraced crypto king | P
Gen Z Really Does Have It Harder Than Millennials | Manhattan Institute
China
China’s Economy Takes a Deeper Hit as Retail Sales Turn Negative | W
Japan
Japan’s Economy Shrinks Unexpectedly, Hit by a Weak Yen and Rising Inflation | N
Geopolitics & trade
Biden-Xi Talks Mark Shift in U.S.-China Ties Toward Managing Fierce Competition | W
The U.S.’s Struggle to Wean Itself From Chinese Solar Power | W
G20 Leaders Meet in Bali as Global Economy Faces Multiple Threats | N
Poland says a Russian-made missile fell inside their country, killing 2 | C
Industries & companies
Autos: Consumer Reports: New technologies make EVs less reliable | C
Autos: Tesla cuts delivery waiting time for all model 3, model Y cars | R
Autos: Musk's all-nighters at Twitter raise concern for Tesla investors | R
Autos: Ford says making its own parts for electric vehicles could offset job losses | C
Retail: Walmart Sales Rise as Retail Giant Gains More Shoppers | W
Tech: Tech stocks have been crushed. What's next for the FAANGs? | NN
Tech: Microsoft, Meta, others face rising drought risk to their data centers | C
Corporate finance
Estée Lauder Agrees to Buy Tom Ford Brand in $2.8 Billion Deal | N
FTX
How Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX-Alameda empire vanished overnight | C
FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Attempts to Raise Fresh Cash Despite Bankruptcy | W
FTX’s Collapse Casts a Pall on ‘Effective Altruism’ Movement | N
Fed’s Michael Barr Says Crypto Turmoil Highlights Potential Risks to Financial System | W
Climate
New Climate Early Warning System Aims to Plug Weather Blind Spots Around the World | W
November 14 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Earnings & Inflation
Economic recessions invariably produce earnings recessions, but earnings slowdowns and downturns can occur without economic recessions: Nominal GDP and revenues growth can stay strong as profit margins narrow, causing earnings growth to falter. That’s what seems to be happening now, with the earnings weakness looking like that of a soft, not hard, landing. Whether that changes up ahead depends much on what happens to profit margins. … In this context, Joe discusses the latest earnings results for Q3, explaining how to interpret the results supplied by two different data providers. …And: A look at the components of October’s CPI results, which cheered the stock market at the end of last week. ... Also: Feshbach sees trading range ahead.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 7.
Markets
These currencies have tanked this year — and one is down over 75% against the dollar | C
Central banks
Japanese Inflation Shows Signs of Easing, Kuroda Says | W
Global
IMF says global economic outlook getting 'gloomier', risks abound | R
G-20 Discord Likely to Thwart Efforts to Boost Sagging Global Economy | W
U.S. may skirt recession in 2023, Europe not so lucky - Morgan Stanley | R
Energy & climate
The global energy crisis may be accelerating decarbonisation efforts, says Fatih Birol | E
'Vaccination-style' intervention needed for UK energy crisis: Ovo CEO | C
The 'world's largest floating wind farm' produces its first power | C
Used-Car Dealer Tricolor Became an ESG Favorite Amid Customer Complaints and Expensive Cars | BR
US
House Majority Undecided as Democrats Keep Senate Control | W
Labor Market Mystery: Where Are the Older Gen Z Workers? | W
China
China Dials Back Property Restrictions in Bid to Reverse Economic Slide | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford vs. GM: Same industry, two increasingly different companies | C
Retail: Retailers Are Already Offering More Holiday Sales. What to Watch. | BR
Retail: Retailers' biggest holiday wish is to get rid of all that excess inventory | C
Tech: Tech Companies Won Big in the Midterm Elections. Here’s Why. | BR
Geopolitics & trade
Biden, Xi stress need to work together as they meet for talks | R
Germany is open to trade with China — but we're not stupid, vice chancellor says | C
On what terms could the war in Ukraine stop? | E
FTX
The FTX debacle makes SEC Chair Gensler look bad—again | Fortune
FTX’s Digital Coin Was at Heart of Crypto Exchange’s Fall | W
Sam Bankman-Fried’s Alameda quietly used FTX customer funds without raising alarm bells, say sources | C
Beyond markets
Elon Musk says 'I have too much work on my plate' | R
Can You Tell Whether This Headline Was Written by a Robot? | W
November 12 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Transports, Oil & Climate Change
Does the recent rally in the S&P Transports signal that investors think transportation stocks have been beaten down enough so far this year? Will they continue to chug uphill despite the drag from slowing fundamentals? Jackie examines the challenges up ahead for shippers, truckers, railroads, and air freight and logistics companies; airlines, though, seem headed for blue skies. … Also: A look at the oil market’s tug of war between China’s downward pressure and Russia’s upward pressure on prices. … And: Today’s Disruptive Technologies segment focuses on news from the UN’s international climate change conference, COP27.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 7.
Markets
Stocks Extend Rally After Inflation Slowdown | W
Nasdaq adds 1.9%, S&P 500 closes nearly 1% higher and notches best week since June | C
Wild Stock Spike Revives Is-This-the-Bottom Debate for Third Time This Year | B
Central banks
Krugman Says the Fed Should Pause Rate Hikes, Has Done Enough | B
Energy
Growing number of Germans won't be left in dark with blackout courses | R
EXCLUSIVE India can buy as much Russian oil as it wants, outside price cap, Yellen says | R
US
Inflation Report: What Costs More—and Less | W
Arizona Senate: Mark Kelly beats Trump GOP pick Blake Masters, NBC News projects | C
Trump on defense after weak GOP midterms, raising questions about 2024 | C
China
China Eases Zero-Covid Rules as Economic Toll and Frustrations Mount | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. Downgrades Russia to Nonmarket Economy | W
Industries & companies
Consumer discretionary: A first look at Amazon's new delivery drone | C
Media: Disney plans layoffs, hiring freeze, cost cuts, CEO Bob Chapek says in memo | C
Utilities: The U.S. Electric System Is Leaning on Customers to Avoid Blackouts | W
Crypto
Exclusive: At least $1 billion of client funds missing at FTX | R
FTX Files for Bankruptcy, CEO Sam Bankman-Fried Resigns | W
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried says he is in the Bahamas | R
Climate
This Former BlackRock Executive Says ESG Investment Model Is Broken | W
Carbon Market Under Pressure to Deliver Billions in Climate Funding | W
Beyond markets
From Elon Musk to Sam Bankman-Fried, a bad week for market geniuses | C
November 11 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Transports, Oil & Climate Change
Does the recent rally in the S&P Transports signal that investors think transportation stocks have been beaten down enough so far this year? Will they continue to chug uphill despite the drag from slowing fundamentals? Jackie examines the challenges up ahead for shippers, truckers, railroads, and air freight and logistics companies; airlines, though, seem headed for blue skies. … Also: A look at the oil market’s tug of war between China’s downward pressure and Russia’s upward pressure on prices. … And: Today’s Disruptive Technologies segment focuses on news from the UN’s international climate change conference, COP27.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 7.
Markets
Wall Street Goes Crazy: The Numbers | FO
Chinese Stocks Surge as Beijing Eases Some Covid Restrictions | W
Goldman Sachs CEO says he expects a 'reopening' in capital markets next year | C
Rising Interest Rates Hit Banks’ Bond Holdings | W
Central banks
Fed officials welcome October CPI but still see tighter policy ahead | C
Inflation Report Leaves Fed on Track for 0.5-Point Rate Rise in December | W
US
October Inflation Report Shows Consumer Prices Rose 7.7% From Year Earlier | W
It may be cheaper to eat out on Thanksgiving as grocery prices soar | C
Mortgage rates fall sharply to under 7% after inflation eases | C
What midterm voting results tell us about the economy going forward | FO
Midterm Elections Point to Closely Divided House as Voters Shift in Pivotal Districts | W
Midterms: We may not know who controls the Senate until December | C
'Start adding zeroes': Big money expected to pour into Georgia midterm runoff | R
Biden says he plans to run again, to make it final in early 2023 | R
Europe
Price Rises Are Helping European Manufacturers Defy a Downturn | W
China
China Eases Zero-Covid Rules as Economic Toll and Frustrations Mount | W
Geopolitics & trade
Global shipping industry faces a new problem — too many containers | C
Ukrainian official describes chaotic Russian withdrawal from strategic city | R
Corporate finance
SoftBank Posts Profit of More Than $21 Billion After Selling Alibaba Shares | W
Climate
COP27 delegates in Egypt battle a growing list of logistics nightmares | C
Beyond markets
Read Elon Musk's first email to all Twitter employees | C
Healthy infants face considerable risk of RSV hospitalization: study | C
November 10 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Transports, Oil & Climate Change
Does the recent rally in the S&P Transports signal that investors think transportation stocks have been beaten down enough so far this year? Will they continue to chug uphill despite the drag from slowing fundamentals? Jackie examines the challenges up ahead for shippers, truckers, railroads, and air freight and logistics companies; airlines, though, seem headed for blue skies. … Also: A look at the oil market’s tug of war between China’s downward pressure and Russia’s upward pressure on prices. … And: Today’s Disruptive Technologies segment focuses on news from the UN’s international climate change conference, COP27.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 7.
Markets
Wall Street layoffs pick up steam as Citigroup and Barclays cut hundreds of workers | C
China Stocks Slide as Covid Curbs Temper Reopening Hopes | B
US
Frustrated Republicans Try to Explain Lack of Midterm ‘Red Wave’ | W
October CPI seen showing inflation up even as some goods prices cool | C
Democrats Hold Off Steep Losses by Driving Turnout and Winning Independent Voters | W
Control of Congress Remains at Stake as Democrats Fend Off Anticipated ‘Red Wave’ | W
China
China Producer Prices Turn Negative in Warning Sign for Global Economy | W
Column: China reopening may add inflation headache | R
Under Xi Jinping, Women in China Have Given Up Gains | W
Column: China’s diesel exports recover but not enough to reverse global shortage | R
Emerging
Korea Unveils $7 Billion in Financing to Help Property Market | B
Industries & companies
Autos: Tesla stock hits 2-year low after Musk sells $4 bln worth of shares | R
Real Estate: Redfin Shuts Home-Flipping Business, Lays Off 13% of Staff in Slumping Housing Market | W
Geopolitics & trade
Russia says troops leaving strategic Kherson, Ukraine doubts full pullout | R
Russia Orders Withdrawal From Kherson, Only Regional Ukrainian Capital It Held | W
November 09 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Political Cycles, Earnings Estimates & Fiscal Fatigue
The stock market historically has performed well after midterm elections and during third years of presidential cycles, but none of these positive political cyclical trends will make much difference if inflation remains elevated, which would force the Fed to cause a hard landing of the economy. … Also: Analysts’ earnings estimates are falling mostly because their expectations for margins are falling. We review the relevant data for the S&P 500 sectors. … And: How fiscal policy has contributed to the deficit and inflation.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 7.
Markets
Investors face unclear outcome in midterms, with questions over spending, regulation | R
Oil prices fall 2.5% on U.S. inventory build, China COVID worries | R
Central banks
Some Investors Bet Fed Could Lift Rates to Two-Decade High | W
US
Republican 'red wave' turns into a ripple, Georgia Senate headed to runoff | R
Midterm Election Could Make Democrats Latest Governing Party to Pay Price for Inflation | W
Midterm election results: Trump candidates disappoint on Election Day | C
We’re using 1960s guidance to measure poverty in 2022 | The Hill
Maxwell Frost will be the first Gen Z member of Congress | C
Europe
Europe Doubles Down on Big Government | W
Europe's retailers strive to keep prices low to win struggling shoppers | R
Japan
Japanese Companies Are Making Less but Profiting More Thanks to Weak Yen | W
China
China Producer Prices Turn Negative in Warning Sign for Global Economy | W
China’s Business Elite See the Country That Let Them Thrive Slipping Away | N
Geopolitics & trade
Treasury Chief Janet Yellen Heads to India as U.S. Seeks to Deepen Ties | W
Industries & companies
Communications Services: Meta laying off more than 11,000 employees: Read Zuckerberg's letter | C
Media: Elon Musk’s Twitter is a case study of how not to lay people off | Vox
Media: Elon Musk took over a struggling Twitter and has quickly made it worse | C
Climate
US launches carbon offset program to help developing countries | C
China Resists Climate Pressure From West, but Makes Gains on Its Own | W
November 08 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Labor, Productivity & Wages
For a variety of reasons, there’s a severe mismatch between the demand for and supply of labor in the US. That’s created a maelstrom in the market, with extraordinary levels of turnover: One third of payroll employees have quit their jobs over the past 12 months, most for higher-paying ones. That’s driving up wage inflation and driving down productivity. … But we still expect productivity to recover this decade as businesses react by investing in productivity-boosting technologies—our “Roaring 2020s” scenario. … While the latest data show some moderation in wage inflation, it probably won’t continue to moderate sustainably until turnover subsides.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on November 7.
Markets
U.S. stocks end higher, Meta jumps as investors eye midterms | R
Stocks Rise Ahead of Midterms, Inflation Data | W
China reopening hopes keep dollar on guard | R
Column: Rebound in China crude oil imports less impressive than it looks: Russell | R
Energy
EU Energy Crisis Sparked by Ukraine War to Create Blackouts in Poor Countries | B
Sanctions on Russian Energy Loom Over Oil Market | W
Central banks
Fed announces another rate hike. But inflation is even more painful. | USA
Fed Will Stick to the Task of Curbing Inflation, Thomas Barkin Says | B
Despite What You’re Told, There Are No ‘Bubbles’ and Certainly No ‘Fed Bubbles’ | FO
BOJ debated impact of future exit from easy policy amid rising prices | R
US
Homeowners have lost over $1 trillion in equity since May | C
Inflation Strains Voters Across Income Levels Ahead of Midterm Elections | W
More Professionals Need to Get Second Jobs Because of Inflation | W
Biden warns on risk to democracy, Trump hints at another run on eve of midterms | R
Musk encourages independents to vote Republican ahead of midterms | C
China
China Weighs Gradual Zero-Covid Exit but Proceeds With Caution, Without Timeline | W
Guangzhou's COVID outbreak deepens as more lockdowns loom in China | R
China’s Exports Drop Sharply as Global Economy Slows | W
Who Is Li Qiang? What Does Xi's New No. 2 Mean for China? | B
China's super-rich see fortunes plunge as economy slows | R
Geopolitics & trade
From Teslas to BMWs, cars are piling up on land and sea at German port | C
Germany likely to block Chinese takeover of Elmos' chip production | R
Corporate finance
Foxconn to become biggest shareholder in Lordstown Motors with up to $170 mln investment | R
Walgreens Unit to Buy Summit Health | W
Beyond markets
Covid’s Drag on the Workforce Proves Persistent. ‘It Sets Us Back.’ | W
November 07 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Powell Is From Mars, Brainard Is From Venus
Has the stock market been voting early? It‘s up 5% since the S&P 500’s October 12 bottom—which may turn out to be the bear market’s ultimate bottom. Tomorrow’s midterm elections may further boost stock prices in coming months if history is a guide. Our soft-landing economic outlook, if it pans out (60% subjective odds), may be another wind at the stock market’s back. … A headwind last week was Fed Chair Powell’s peak hawkishness, but we expect to hear counterbalancing views from other Fed officials now that their quiet period is over. … Much now—both the economic and financial market outlooks—hinges on inflation reports in coming months. ... On inflation, Brainard makes sense. ... And: Dr. Ed reviews “Don’t Worry Darling” (+ +).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 31.
Energy
Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting | E
Frackers Say Oil Production Slowing in the Shale Patch | W
Central banks
Housing-Price Inflation Is a Problem. The Federal Reserve Can’t Solve It. | BR
US
Elevated Inflation Presents Risk to U.S. Economy, Fed Report Finds | W
Why the October Jobs Report Is So Strong Despite Tech Layoffs | W
Midterm Election Campaigning Intensifies Across U.S. in Closing Days | W
China
China's exports shrink in October, badly missing expectations for growth | C
The never-ending campaign against graft in China | E
Japan
Japan’s bond-market peg could snap | E
Geopolitics & trade
Senior White House Official Involved in Undisclosed Talks With Top Putin Aides | W
Ukraine warns of more Russian attacks on energy infrastructure | R
Who wins from the unravelling of Sino-American trade? | E
Industries & companies
Communications Services: Meta could begin large-scale layoffs this week, report says | C
Media: Twitter Is Elon Musk’s Biggest Test—and Tesla’s Biggest Challenge. How They’ll Make It Work. | BR
Retail: Inflation, Recession Fears Have Some Holiday Shoppers Trading Down | W
Tech: Apple warns Covid restrictions in China are hurting iPhone production | C
Climate
Climate: COP27 opens with a rallying call for rich nations to pay up | C
The world is missing its lofty climate targets. Time for some realism | E
November 05 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Powell, China, Consumers & AI
Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference yesterday deflated the stock market, but we think the S&P 500 bottomed on October 12 and see a few potentially uplifting developments to come. … Also: What might it take for the China MSCI to start performing better? Jackie considers this question and examines two big issues holding it back. … And: The shift in consumer purchasing patterns from stuff to services was apparent in the Q3 earnings of companies affected both positively and negatively. … Finally, today’s Disruptive Technologies piece showcases the rapidly advancing technology of AI.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 31.
Markets
Stocks Finish Higher After U.S. Jobs Report | W
Goldman Wealth Strategist Sees Buying Opportunity in Stock Slump | B
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Swings to Loss, Stung by Battered Market | W
Climate
Climate Change Eclipsed by Inflation, Crime, Abortion in US Midterm Races | B
Climate activists block private jets at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport | R
Central banks
Fed Watchers Put ‘Finger in the Air’ and See Rate Peak Above 5% | B
China Investigates Central Bank Deputy Governor in First Major Probe Since Party Congress | W
US
Elevated Inflation Presents Risk to U.S. Economy, Fed Report Finds | W
Why the October Jobs Report Is So Strong Despite Tech Layoffs | W
Jobs Report Shows Payrolls Grew 261,000 in October | W
House hunting this weekend? There's more out there now | C
Obama warns of 'dangerous' U.S. political climate ahead of midterms | R
China
Possible China Covid Reopening Prompts Jittery Markets, Intense Speculation | W
China vows to continue with 'dynamic-clearing' COVID strategy | R
Geopolitics & trade
North Korea Shoots Ballistic Missiles Off Its West Coast | W
Train crosses North Korea border into Russia after arms report, think tank says | R
Ukrainian forces brace for bloody fight for Kherson | R
Ukraine Curbs Power Use as Russian Strikes Take Toll on Electric Grid | W
Industries & companies
Media: Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey speaks out after mass layoffs | C
Media: Elon Musk Says Twitter Has Had Massive Revenue Drop as Layoffs Begin | W
Retail: Travel has edge over shopping this holiday season amid inflation | C
Retail: Inflation to dampen holiday spending, retail trade group forecasts | C
Tech: For Chip Makers, the Flip from Shortage to Glut Intensifies | W
Crypto
Crypto Firms, Executives Step Up Campaign Donations, Lobbying Ahead of Midterms | W
Beyond markets
This School Took Away Smartphones. The Kids Don’t Mind. | W
What Moneyball Has Done to American Culture | The Atlantic
November 04 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Powell, China, Consumers & AI
Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference yesterday deflated the stock market, but we think the S&P 500 bottomed on October 12 and see a few potentially uplifting developments to come. … Also: What might it take for the China MSCI to start performing better? Jackie considers this question and examines two big issues holding it back. … And: The shift in consumer purchasing patterns from stuff to services was apparent in the Q3 earnings of companies affected both positively and negatively. … Finally, today’s Disruptive Technologies piece showcases the rapidly advancing technology of AI.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 31.
Markets
Stocks Finish Lower After Fed Signals Higher Rates | W
Traders scramble for protection after Fed spooks markets | R
Energy
Exclusive: G7 coalition has agreed to set fixed price for Russian oil | R
Oil prices drop as demand fears dominate | R
U.S. sells last batch of emergency reserve oil from historic release | R
Central banks
Fed’s Hard Line on Interest Rates Fuels Bond Rout | W
Bank of England raises rates by most since 1989 even as long recession looms | R
Global
Barclays cuts China GDP after forecasting U.S., Europe recession | C
US
Jobless Claims Remain Low in Tight U.S. Labor Market | W
The guy who inspired the "quiet quitting" movement is back to working 50 hours a week | qz.com
Geopolitics & trade
Taiwan, U.S. to hold in person trade talks next week | C
The Messy Unwinding of the New World Order—in Charts | W
Industries & companies
Media: General Mills, Audi and Pfizer Join Growing List of Companies Pausing Twitter Ads | W
Media: Twitter to begin layoffs Friday, days after Elon Musk's $44 billion takeover | C
Central banks
You Can Thank the Fed for Boosting the $1.5 Billion Powerball Jackpot | W
November 03 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Powell, China, Consumers & AI
Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference yesterday deflated the stock market, but we think the S&P 500 bottomed on October 12 and see a few potentially uplifting developments to come. … Also: What might it take for the China MSCI to start performing better? Jackie considers this question and examines two big issues holding it back. … And: The shift in consumer purchasing patterns from stuff to services was apparent in the Q3 earnings of companies affected both positively and negatively. … Finally, today’s Disruptive Technologies piece showcases the rapidly advancing technology of AI.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 31.
Markets
Stocks Fall After Fed’s Interest-Rate Decision | W
Strategists See EM Asia Getting Sold as Dollar Back on Ascent | B
Big Shorts Are Quickly Turning Dangerous in China’s Wild Market | B
China Says It’s Sticking to Covid Zero, But That Hasn’t Stopped Stock Frenzy | B
Central banks
Fed Statement Tracker | W
Federal Reserve Approves Fourth 0.75-Point Rate Rise, Hints at Smaller Hikes | W
Fed's Powell: 'Ultimate level' of rates likely higher than earlier estimates | R
Fed rate hikes could go even further than expected as Powell commits to stomp out inflation | C
Fed's Powell: 'Soft landing' chances have narrowed | R
Jerome Powell’s Not for Turning—Yet | W
To Solve Inflation, First Solve Deficits, This Theory Advises | W
Energy
Nord Stream 1 operator says it found craters at damaged pipeline site | R
CEOs fixing Biden’s Saudi oil mess because he won’t | P
US
There Is a Painless Way to Fix Inflation | Time
Biden blames extreme MAGA Republicans for intimidating voters and election officials, calling it ‘corrosive’ to democracy | C
China
Who Is China’s New No. 2? A Business Pragmatist or a Party Loyalist? | W
China Tells Officials to ‘Resolutely Adhere’ to Covid Zero | B
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. cautioned Germany against a Chinese controlling stake in Hamburg port | R
North Korea fires multiple ballistic missiles, residents in Japan told to shelter | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: The Weird-Looking, Fuel-Efficient Planes You Could Be Flying In One Day | W
Media: Netflix With Ads Launching as Talks Continue With Studios Over Content | W
Technology
Musk Plans to Eliminate Half of Twitter Jobs to Cut Costs | B
Climate
Climate Change Costs Are Eating Up the Money to Avert It | B
November 02 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Powell, Inflation & Home Prices
After Fed Chair Powell’s press conference today, investors are bound to see more light at the end of the tightening tunnel. We’re hoping he’ll suggest that just two more 75bps turns of the federal-funds-rate screw—one announced today and another in December—may be tight enough. … Also: We assess the latest persistently high inflation data with an eye toward assessing whether our inflation forecast for the rest of this year is overly optimistic. … And: Housing prices are falling in the wake of rising mortgage rates. But we don’t see the market crashing as in 2007, Melissa explains. The downward drivers then and now are nothing alike.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 31.
Markets
Stocks finish lower as Wall Street braces for key Fed decision | C
China Markets Rally After Unconfirmed Social Posts on Reopening | B
Treasury: Series I bond rate is 6.89% through April 2023 | C
Central banks
Fed seen raising rates by three-quarters of a point, may slow pace ahead | C
Column: Fed may be alert to favoured yield curve alarm | R
Traders Expect Higher Interest Rates to Stay for Foreseeable Future | W
US
Food Prices Soar, and So Do Companies’ Profits | N
JOLTS September 2022 | C
Marcus vs Mortgage: High-Yield Savings Account Rates Beat Some Home Loans | B
Midterm Elections 2022: 5 Key Races That Could Impact Election Security | B
With deep recession coming, Biden prepares by blaming Republicans | P
Europe
Europe Braces for a Winter Without Russian Gas | N
China
Auditor exodus at embattled China property firms triggers governance concerns | R
Emerging
Brazil protests escalate, disrupting fuel, grain and meat industries | R
Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro Pledges to Respect Constitution After Election Loss | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Toyota cuts output target amid chip crunch as profit tumbles 25% | R
Financials: U.S. banks processed about $1.2 billion in ransomware payments in 2021 | C
Media: Elon Musk Wants More Paying Twitter Users, Hinting at $8 a Month for Verified Accounts | W
Pharma: Pfizer CEO reveals growth plan as company faces up to $18 billion revenue hit | C
Corporate finance
DuPont pulls the plug on $5.2 bln buyout of Rogers on clearance issues | R
China Evergrande unit gets notice for $4.48 bln loan from Shengjing Bank | R
Beyond markets
Taylor Swift holds top 10 spots in Billboard Hot 100, announces tour | C
November 01 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Back To The Old Normal?
The unconventional ultra-easy monetary policy that reigned from the Great Financial Crisis to the Great Virus Crisis—a.k.a. the “New Normal”—aimed to stimulate the economy and shore up inflation. Now the “Old Normal” is back, characterized by more conventional tight monetary policy aimed at taming inflation, even if that kickstarts a recession. … But this post-pandemic business cycle isn’t following the usual Old Normal script—instead featuring an oddly quick snapback of GDP growth and oddly vigorous comeback of inflation. … Today, we look at what’s been happening in various segments of the economy this year and forecast what’s in store for 2023.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 31.
Markets
European stocks hit six-week high on hopes for rate hike slowdown | R
Dollar drops as optimism spreads before Fed and BoE decisions | R
Energy
Biden Calls for Penalties on Oil-and-Gas Companies’ ‘Windfall’ Profits | W
Joe Biden threatens higher taxes on oil companies amid high gas prices | C
Energy crisis: Next winter will be worse than this one, oil CEOs warn | C
Global
Factory output weakens on widespread slowdown, China COVID curbs | R
Central banks
Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates’ Coming Path | W
The Federal Reserve Has a Secret Weapon to Fight Inflation | B
US
Report on Worker Demand to Indicate if Labor Market Cooled Further | W
The Accountant Shortage Threatens Capitalism's Future | B
Immigration and Education Are Key to Fixing the US Supply Chain | B
34% Of Millennials Report Being Behind On Their Retirement Savings | C
Meet the 6 Latina GOP Candidates That Are Driving Democrats Nuts | townhall.com
Bigger Affordable Care Act Subsidies Likely to Boost Enrollment | W
Europe
Eurozone Inflation Rate Rises to 10.7% as Recession Looms | W
China
Chinese Property Bonds Set Record Lows as Investors Lose Faith | W
Fearing COVID, workers flee from Foxconn's vast Chinese iPhone plant | R
Apple iPhone maker Foxconn says no Covid deaths at China plant | C
China Docks Final Module to Space Station | W
Emerging
Brazilian President Remains Silent a Day After Losing Election | W
Geopolitics & trade
Biden Is All-In on Taking Out China, Whatever the Consequences | foreignpolicy.com
China's Xi greets Vietnamese ally with ceremony, call for defiance
Ukraine Races to Restore Electricity, Water Supplies After Russian Strikes | W
North Korea demands the U.S., South Korea halt joint military drills | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: Delta pilots vote in favor of potential strike as contract talks drag on | C
Autos: Chip Shortages Still Plague Toyota, Some Other Auto Makers | W
Pharma: Pfizer RSV vaccine given to pregnant moms protects newborns, company data shows | C
Corporate finance
J&J to buy heart pump maker Abiomed in $16.6 billion deal | C
Beyond markets
LinkedIn Survey Finds Work-From-Home Trend May Have Peaked | B
October 31 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Bear Bottoms
The bear market has clawed 30% out of stock valuations, returning the S&P 500’s forward P/E to its historical average of 15. But October 12 may have marked the bear’s bottom. If GDP and inflation perform as we expect and the Fed does what everyone expects, that bottom should hold. … We think the stock market has discounted a soft-landing scenario (to which we give a 60% subjective probability) but is nervous about a hard landing (40%). … Also: The MegaCap-8 stocks’ outsized influence over their resident indexes has been diminished. … Movie review: “All Quiet on the Western Front” (+ + +).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 24.
Markets
Good News: Bad S&P 500 Earnings Are Playing Into the Fed’s Hand | B
Rising Markets Seem to See the Fed Easing. It’s Too Early for That. | BR
Small-Cap Stocks Have Rarely Been So Depressed. 7 to Buy Now. | BR
Municipal Bonds Are Offering the Yields You’re Looking For. Here’s Where to Look. | BR
The Year That Changed How Wealth Grows | BR
U.S. Pensions Take a Fresh Look at China | W
Energy
Column: U.S. diesel shortage increasingly likely until economy slows | R
Diesel market in perfect storm as prices surge and supplies dwindle | C
Natural-Gas Prices Have Plunged Into Autumn | W
Central banks
Column: Fed may be alert to favoured yield curve alarm | R
Goldman Sachs Now Sees Fed Rates Peaking at 5% in March | B
Fed and BOE Prepare 75 Basis-Point Salvos on Inflation: Eco Week | B
Job Markets Are Defying Central Bankers’ Efforts to Cool Demand | B
Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer | W
US
Joe Biden attempts the biggest overhaul of America’s economy in decades | E
3 Potential Outcomes for the Midterms—and What Each Scenario Would Mean | BR
Inflation, Economy Are Top of Mind for US Voters in Midterm Poll | B
The Midterm Elections Are Almost Here. 5 Key Areas to Watch. | BR
How much is long COVID reducing labor force participation? Not much (so far) (brookings.edu)
Senate Republicans want the SEC to explain why staff are quitting | R
Europe
Storm clouds loom for Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s new prime minister | E
China
China Nods to Even Tighter Ties With Russia in Xi Jinping’s Third Term | W
Geopolitics & trade
U.N., Turkey Race to Save Ukraine Grain Deal | W
EU urges Russia to revoke Ukraine Black Sea grain deal suspension | C
Factbox: What is known about the drone attack on Crimea? | R
Russia says it recovers drones used in Black Sea fleet attack in Crimea | R
Russia's Lavrov needles Biden over Cuban missile crisis and Ukraine | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Where Are the Air Bags? Russia’s Hobbled Auto Industry Struggles to Reboot | W
Materials: Steel Companies’ Profits Hurt by Falling Prices | W
Retail: JPMorgan, Macy’s and Other Companies Reveal What They Pay Workers as Deadline Looms | W
Tech: Digital Dollars Could Be a Boon for Amazon, Alphabet, and Other Tech Companies | BR
Tech: Rate Squeeze Punishes Once-Triumphant Tech Stocks | W
Corporate finance
A brief history of Twitter: From its founding in 2006 to Musk takeover | C
Beyond markets
The attack at the Pelosis’ home was part of a dangerous pattern | E
October 29 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China and Semiconductors
Today, our focus is the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment manufacturing industries, both down on their luck these days. The US Commerce Department has barred the door to one of their major markets, China. Yet the CEOs have been curiously acquiescent. … Jackie examines the administration’s possible motivations and the impacts on specific players in the space. … This bad news couldn’t have hit at a worse time: The semiconductor cycle may be heading south. Earnings estimates have been getting slashed and stocks battered.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 24.
Markets
Dow closes 800 points higher on Friday, registers fourth straight week of gains | C
Dow Jumps More Than 800 Points as Apple Gains 7.6% | W
Why the Most Common Gas Price Is Far From Average | W
Central banks
U.S. data brings some encouraging signs for inflation-weary Fed | R
Opinion | The Federal Reserve deserves a new variation on the Peter Principle | WP
Global
International Discord Undercuts Global Growth, Worsens Inflation | W
US
U.S. Wages Rose Rapidly in Third Quarter, Keeping Pressure on Inflation | W
U.S. pending home sales tumble in September | R
Consumer Spending Rose in September as Prices for Rent, Transportation Increased | W
Rise in U.S. consumer spending beats expectations; wage inflation slows | R
Credit-Card Debt Returns to Levels Before Covid-19 Pandemic | W
Opinion | Republicans Have No Inflation Plan | N
Europe
Discontent Rises in Europe as Economic War With Russia Pushes Up Cost of Living | W
China
China Nods to Even Tighter Ties With Russia in Xi Jinping’s Third Term | W
Shanghai Disneyland reduces operations as China tightens COVID curbs | R
Japan
Japan Is the One Place Where Inflation Might Be About Right | W
Geopolitics & trade
Star Economist Roubini on the Global Crises: "World War III Has Already Effectively Begun"
Iranian Drones in Ukraine Project Tehran’s Power Beyond Mideast, Testing U.S., Europe | W
U.S. says North Korea policy unchanged after nuclear remark raises eyebrows | R
UN report: Accounts of rape, torture and executions by Russian troops | C
Industries & companies
Communications Services: GM temporarily suspends advertising on Twitter following Musk takeover | C
Energy: Exxon Hits Record Profits Again as Oil Industry Sees Banner Quarter | W
Beyond markets
Flu Hospitalizations Hit Decade-Plus High for October | W
FDA sees limits to omicron-booster studies from Columbia, Harvard | C
Paul Pelosi, Husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Attacked in San Francisco Home | W
October 28 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China and Semiconductors
Today, our focus is the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment manufacturing industries, both down on their luck these days. The US Commerce Department has barred the door to one of their major markets, China. Yet the CEOs have been curiously acquiescent. … Jackie examines the administration’s possible motivations and the impacts on specific players in the space. … This bad news couldn’t have hit at a worse time: The semiconductor cycle may be heading south. Earnings estimates have been getting slashed and stocks battered.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 24.
Markets
Why Stock Multiples Say the Market Could Continue to Drop | Morningstar
The bear hasn’t broken passive yet | FT
Central banks
ECB Raises Rates by 0.75 Point to Highest in More Than a Decade | W
Japan to keep ultra-low interest rates, defy global tightening trend | R
US
U.S. Mortgage Rates Top 7%, Highest in More Than 20 Years | W
U.S. Economy Grew 2.6% in Third Quarter, GDP Report Shows | W
U.S. economy rebounds in Q3 on boost from trade, but demand stalling | R
Analysis: How Congress might look for Biden post midterms: The good, bad, and the ugly | R
Trump loses court bid to block Congress from getting tax returns | C
Geopolitics & trade
Inside the Secret Prisoner Swap That Splintered the U.S. and China | W
Industries & companies
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon predicts sales growth slowdown for holidays, crushing shares | R
Technology
Amazon to open Kuiper internet satellite factory | C
Beyond markets
Buffalo Bills unveil first design images of their new $1.4 billion stadium | C
October 27 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: China and Semiconductors
Today, our focus is the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment manufacturing industries, both down on their luck these days. The US Commerce Department has barred the door to one of their major markets, China. Yet the CEOs have been curiously acquiescent. … Jackie examines the administration’s possible motivations and the impacts on specific players in the space. … This bad news couldn’t have hit at a worse time: The semiconductor cycle may be heading south. Earnings estimates have been getting slashed and stocks battered.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 24.
Markets
Big Tech tumbles as results set off alarm bells | R
Central banks
Powell again faces political pressure as worries mount over economy | C
Energy & climate
Europe, Once Fearing Gas Rationing This Winter, Has a Glut | W
Column: Europe’s gas inventories, the risk from complacency | R
Biden Team Reworks Plan for Russia Oil-Price Cap as Markets Sour | B
Column: China still added to crude oil inventories despite refining, fuel export surge | R
Hydropower Production Falls as Dams From China to US Hit by Sweeping Drought | B
US I
New-Home Sales Fell Nearly 11% in September Amid Rising Interest Rates | W
U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001 | R
Zillow (Z) Lays Off 300 Employees as US Housing Market Slows | B
US II
Ahead of Midterms, How Bad Is the Economy, Really? | W
Biden has ambitious infrastructure goals. Made-in-America rules could slow them. | Vox
Unmitigated gall of Joe Biden claiming that he 'lowered' debt | P
Europe
Germany to legalize cannabis use for recreational purposes | R
Germany, France Divided Over Energy Crisis and China | W
China
Xi Jinping’s Vow of World Dominance by 2049 Sends Chill Through Markets | B
Geopolitics & trade
China Wants to ‘Speed Up’ Its Seizure of Taiwan, US's Blinken Says | B
Opinion | Biden Just Clobbered China’s Chip Industry | N
Ukrainians hold out in east, prepare battle for Kherson | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Exclusive: Tesla faces U.S. criminal probe over self-driving claims | R
Autos: Ford to Take $2.7 Billion Charge on Argo Driverless Startup Stake | W
Media: Disney CEO Bob Chapek Wants to Customize Fan Experiences | W
Tech: Microsoft’s Struggles Enter the Metaverse | W
Corporate finance
U.S. SEC adopts executive compensation clawback rules | R
Accounting Errors to Cost Executives Their Bonuses Under SEC Rule | W
Beyond markets
U.S. Army struggles to find recruits its needs to win fight of future | C
A Possible Covid, Flu and RSV ‘Tripledemic’ Has Doctors Worried. What to Know | W
Brands have fled Kanye. What about his music career? | NN
October 26 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: ECB On Thursday, Inflation On Friday
ECB hawks will be squawking at their meeting on Thursday. Fed hawks will be all over the critical US inflation data that comes out on Friday: The Employment Cost Index may suggest a peaking of wage inflation, and September’s PCED may reflect a declining headline rate (albeit rising core rate, as did September’s CPI, due to services inflation). Today, we examine the significance of each. … Also: We drill down to inflation within services industries, where the worst of it now roosts. … And: Once again, the ECB is on a mission and vowing to “do whatever it takes” to achieve it. This time, the goal is smothering Europe’s inflation fire even if GDP is dampened in the process.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 25.
Markets
The bear market blues: a diagnosis for our times | R
Opinion | Why OPEC Is Cutting Oil Production (and Why There’s Not Much the U.S. Can Do About It) | N
Central banks
Fed's Powell, on eve of next rate hike, urged to protect jobs | R
The Age of Inflation: Easy Money, Hard Choices
Global
Global economy approaching a recession, central banks unchained: Reuters poll | R
US
Leading Economic Index: What it is, why it's flashing a recession warning | C
A 'catastrophe' is coming for economy: Labor Secretary Marty Walsh | C
Home prices cooled at a record pace in August, S&P Case-Shiller says | C
Poor report cards at U.S. companies fan recession fears | R
Surging Rents Push More Americans to Live With Roommates or Parents | W
Health-Insurance Inflation Is Poised to Drop Sharply | W
Steering the conversation toward the economy could actually help Democrats | The Hill
China
Fire Sale! China’s “Warren Buffett” Races To Sell Assets | FO
Europe
New PM Rishi Sunak pledges to lead Britain out of economic crisis | R
Geopolitics & trade
Russian Oligarchs Obscure Their Wealth Through Secretive Isle of Man Network | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airlines have the passengers. Now they need the planes | C
Media: Exclusive: Twitter is losing its most active users, internal documents show | R
Corporate finance
Intel Prices Widely Anticipated IPO for Self-Driving Car Unit Mobileye | W
Covid
Men Died From Covid-19 at Much Higher Rate Than Women in Pandemic’s First Year | W
People who had mild Covid had increased risk of blood clots: UK study | C
Beyond markets
Remote work isn’t going away. What’s happening to extra office space? | Vox
October 25 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Your Wish Is Our Command
Our Monday webinars often don’t allow time to answer all your questions. So today’s Morning Briefing is devoted to a few recent ones. … We don’t expect much economic impact when the drawdown of the SPR ends, as we don’t foresee gasoline prices spiking as a result since tapping the SPR didn’t contribute much to the decline in prices. … Also: We counter our skeptics who expect a rampant recession, explaining why we see greater odds (60%) that the gently rolling recession already underway will continue. … And: The strong dollar should peak when monetary policymakers’ hawkishness does, to the relief of US companies with foreign-derived sales and earnings.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 25.
Markets
U.S. yields climb as hawkish Fed concerns outweigh weaker economic data | R
Shares in Chinese Companies Crash After Xi Jinping Stacks Party With Allies | W
Column: Oil investors on defensive as recession forces intensify | R
Charts suggest the U.S. dollar could be peaking, Jim Cramer says | C
Global
Global Economic Growth Is Weighed Down by Inflation, Rising Interest Rates | W
Energy
President Biden forcefully responds to Saudis on oil | The Hill
Biden’s SPR follies will hurt Americans and damage our national security | P
Factbox: How is Germany replacing Russian gas? | R
The Hidden Corner of the Energy Market Where Russian Exports to Europe Are Booming | W
US
The economy may be in better shape than you think...for now | NN
What the state of the U.S. economy means for the midterm elections | The Week
As They Wholly Redefine ‘Inflation,’ Republicans Hand Dems the Tools to Shoot Down Tax Cuts | FO
Inflation is dominant topic on earnings calls. What execs are saying | C
Opinion | The Way Los Angeles Is Trying to Solve Homelessness Is ‘Absolutely Insane’ | N
Mortgages Sold to Fannie, Freddie Should Use More Than FICO Scores, Regulator Says | W
Europe
Rishi Sunak to be Britain's new prime minister as rival Penny Mordaunt drops out | C
Industries & companies
Autos: Tesla Cuts Prices in China as Costs Fall, Competition Heats Up | W
Financials: Banks Are Offering 4.5% CDs—Just Not to Regular Customers | W
Tech: Intel CEO Calls New U.S. Restrictions on Chip Exports to China Inevitable | W
Geopolitics & trade
Russia could plan 'dirty bomb' pretext, Western countries say | R
How Wikipedia is documenting suspicious Russian oligarch deaths. | slate.com
Chinese intelligence officers charged in Huawei prosecution obstruction | C
Beyond markets
U.S. student test results show toll of pandemic lockdowns on learning | R
October 24 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Great Monetary Policy Reversal
Both the bearish and bullish cases for the stock market currently boil down to how the economy responds to the tectonic monetary policy adjustment from unconventionally ultra-easy to conventionally tight, a.k.a. “The Great Monetary Policy Reversal.” … We describe both cases, pointing out that bullish could morph into bearish if services inflation doesn’t abate. We’re in the minority as glass-half-full bulls, counting on a muted rolling recession, with rolling inflation, passing through the economy and out. … Also: Fed officials may be dialing back their hawkishness, which would support the bullish case. We think monetary policy is decidedly restrictive now already. … And: Midterm elections could energize Santa Claus rally. ... Plus: Dr Ed reviews “Eiffel” (+).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 17.
Markets
Dollar see saws on suspected yen intervention, shares rally | R
China’s Yuan Is Weakening Against the Dollar. It’s Easy to Misread Why. | BR
Palladium Is Outshining Gold and Silver. Why Its Price Could Keep Rising. | BR
Central banks
What CEOs Are Saying: The Fed ‘Should Look Out the Front Windshield’ | W
Even super-tight policy is not bringing down prices | E
Higher Interest Rates Can Take a Long Time to Bring Down Inflation | W
Energy & climate
France’s Nuclear Reactors Malfunction as Energy Crisis Bites | W
India’s next green revolution | E
Buy BP and Exxon Stock. They Have a Surprisingly Green Future. | BR
US
Early Earnings Reports Worry Investors Already Battered by Stock Selloff | W
A global house-price slump is coming | E
Companies Take Different Strategies to Navigate High Inflation | W
U.S. cities where starter homes are affordable | C
Europe
Welcome to Britaly | E
China
China reports third-quarter GDP grew by 3.9%, beating expectations | C
China Economy Shows Mixed Recovery as Industrial Activity Climbs | B
Xi Jinping leaves no doubt who is in charge of China | E
Xi Jinping has no interest in succession planning | E
China’s Xi Claims Third Term as Communist Party Leader | W
China names Xi Jinping loyalists for core leadership group | C
Will the Chinese of tomorrow live like the Spaniards of today? | E
Geopolitics & trade
Russia hits Ukraine homes, evacuates Kherson, warns of escalation | C
Two Koreas exchange warning shots near maritime border amid tensions | C
Industries & companies
Autos: Tesla Stock Could Rebound in 3 Months. Here’s What it Would Take. | BR
Financials: Big Banks Can Weather a Recession. Here Are the Top Stocks to Buy. | BR
Media: Netflix experiments with Knives Out sequel, but sticks with limited theater runs | C
Tech: How U.S. Uses Supply Chain Sway to Throttle China’s Chip Development | W
October 22 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On China, Banks & Solar
China’s economy is ailing, but you wouldn’t know it to hear President Xi’s speech before the Chinese Communist Party’s annual National Congress. Jackie puts into perspective the points he made and, more importantly, the ones he omitted. … Also: Big banks’ Q3 earnings reports showcase their resilience so far in the current higher interest-rate environment but leveraged loans could be a problem area in the future if companies have trouble making higher interest payments. ... And: A look at solar energy’s sunny future: With new technologies making panels lighter and more versatile, the sky’s the limit to their potential applications.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 17.
Markets
Dow climbs more than 700 points on Friday as Wall Street clinches its best week since June | C
U.S. yields slide from multi-year highs on hopes of Fed pivot | R
The $1 Million Amazon Conflict: Washington’s Ethics Czars Struggle to Enforce Stock-Trading Laws | W
2-year Treasury yield falls below 4.5% as traders weigh a potential slowdown in Fed hikes | C
Central banks
Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes | W
Why Japan Stands Virtually Alone in Keeping Interest Rates Ultralow | NYT
Energy
France joins other European countries in pulling out of treaty protecting energy investments | R
Europe’s Energy Shock Spurs Rethink of Liberalized Gas Markets | W
Please, someone: hit the brakes on Biden’s gas and energy nonsense | P
US
Inflation is not becoming 'embedded' in economy, Yellen says | R
Burnout at work is getting worse, according to new data | Vox
U.S. Deficit Shrank Last Fiscal Year, but Is Poised to Widen as Economy Slows | W
Student loan forgiveness: President Biden says 22 million people have signed up | C
Europe
Boris Johnson’s Potential Return Shakes Up Race for U.K. Prime Minister | W
China
China's Decade of Change Under Xi Jinping, in Nine Charts | W
Industries & companies
Retail: How Lululemon competes against Athleta, Alo, Gymshark, Nike and Adidas | C
Beyond markets
Cases of BQ.1, BQ.1.1 COVID variants double in U.S. as Europe warns of rise | R
Surge in Pediatric Respiratory Viruses, Including RSV, Strains Children’s Hospitals | W
CDC may use oral polio vaccine for first time in 20 years to halt New York outbreak | C
October 21 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On China, Banks & Solar
China’s economy is ailing, but you wouldn’t know it to hear President Xi’s speech before the Chinese Communist Party’s annual National Congress. Jackie puts into perspective the points he made and, more importantly, the ones he omitted. … Also: Big banks’ Q3 earnings reports showcase their resilience so far in the current higher interest-rate environment but leveraged loans could be a problem area in the future if companies have trouble making higher interest payments. ... And: A look at solar energy’s sunny future: With new technologies making panels lighter and more versatile, the sky’s the limit to their potential applications.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 17.
Markets
Big News for Investors: TINA is Dead | Morningstar
Oil near flat as inflation concerns contend with potential quarantine easing in China | R
Central banks
The Fed, Staring Down Two Big Choices, Charts an Aggressive Path | N
Businesses Expect Economy to Weaken, Fed’s Beige Book Says | W
Fed's Harker sees 'lack of progress' on inflation, expects aggressive rate hikes ahead | C
Fed may have to slow or stop balance sheet trimming in 2023, Barclays says | R
Greg Mankiw's Blog: Why I fear the Fed may be overdoing it
Cramer: Earnings reports show the Fed is making progress on inflation | C
Global
Sanctions on Russia aluminum could hurt global supply chains: Analysts | C
US
U.S. Home Sales Drop for Eighth Straight Month in September | W
Existing home sales fall to a 10-year low in September | C
Jobless Claims Fell Last Week in Still-Tight Labor Market | W
An often-overlooked economic measure is signaling serious trouble ahead | C
College Enrollment Declines Again Though Online Schools, HBCUs See Increases | W
Container imports to Los Angeles and Long Beach are plummeting
China
Why Another Xi Jinping Term Might Be in U.S.’s Interest | W
China’s Military Is Catching Up to the U.S. Is It Ready for Battle? | W
Europe
Truss Defied the Markets, and They Ruthlessly Sealed Her Fate | N
Who will replace Truss as UK prime minister? Sunak? Mordaunt? Johnson? | R
U.K. Government Is High-Profile Casualty in World of Higher Borrowing Costs | W
Japan
Japan's inflation hits 8-year high in test of BOJ's dovish policy | R
Geopolitics & trade
Iran Is Training Russian Drone Pilots in Crimea to Aid Moscow’s War Effort, U.S. Says | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: At American Airlines, First Class Out, Business Class In for International Trips | W
Airlines: Why cheap airfare is so hard to find this year | C
Airlines: Travel Demand Remains Strong, Airlines Say | W
Autos: Elon Musk Calls Tesla ‘Recession-Resilient’ as Wall Street Eyes Demand | W
Autos: GM's 2024 GMC Sierra EV offers electric truck alternative to Hummer | C
Railroads: Union Pacific Profit Rises 13% as Railroads Benefit From Higher Freight Rates | W
Retail: Second Amazon Style apparel store officially opens | Chain Store Age
Tech: Apple Is an Ad Company Now | WIRED
Tech: Chip Maker TSMC Weighs Expansion in Japan to Reduce Geopolitical Risk | W
Tech: Facebook shuttle bus drivers face layoffs as Meta slashes costs | C
Beyond markets
What Have Workers Done with the Time Freed up by Commuting Less? | NY Fed
Ask an AI Art Generator for Any Image. The Results Are Amazing—and Terrifying. | W
October 20 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On China, Banks & Solar
China’s economy is ailing, but you wouldn’t know it to hear President Xi’s speech before the Chinese Communist Party’s annual National Congress. Jackie puts into perspective the points he made and, more importantly, the ones he omitted. … Also: Big banks’ Q3 earnings reports showcase their resilience so far in the current higher interest-rate environment but leveraged loans could be a problem area in the future if companies have trouble making higher interest payments. ... And: A look at solar energy’s sunny future: With new technologies making panels lighter and more versatile, the sky’s the limit to their potential applications.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 17.
Markets
Japanese yen hits 150 against the U.S. dollar | C
Central banks
BOJ conducts emergency bond buying to underpin debt market, but yields keep rising | R
Japan ramps up intervention threats after yen slides past key 150 level | R
Energy
Factbox: Europe's alternatives if Russia shuts off gas supply | R
America's new nuclear power industry has a Russian problem | R
Biden says oil companies should prioritize lowering prices over stock buybacks | C
US
GOP holds big leads on key economic issues ahead of the November elections, CNBC survey shows | C
China
China’s Surveillance State Pushes Deeper Into Citizens’ Lives | W
Europe
UK PM Liz Truss locked in Downing Street talks as political crisis escalates | C
Geopolitics & trade
Ukrainians Urged to Ration Electricity as Russian Missiles Target Energy Infrastructure | W
U.S., Europe Struggle to Keep Iran’s Drones From Russian Military | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Biden administration awards $2.8 billion in grants for electric vehicle battery manufacturing | C
Autos: Elon Musk says Tesla is 'pedal to the metal' even in recession | C
Pharma: Drugmakers Look to Limit Medicare’s New Power to Negotiate Lower Drug Prices | W
Beyond markets
Trump's company faces criminal tax trial as his legal woes mount | R
Toxic Workplaces Are Bad for Mental and Physical Health, Surgeon General Says | W
October 19 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Mid-Terms, Earnings & Commodities
Octobers tend to turn out decent returns during mid-term election years. Twelve bear markets have met their demise during October, often setting the stage for Santa Claus rallies. … Q3 earnings season has stumbled out of the gate, but stocks have rallied anyway. We look at which sectors and industries benefited the most and where estimate-cutting industry analysts are cutting the most. … Also: Melissa discusses how recent news from China and Europe has been affecting commodities prices.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 17.
Markets
Stocks Notch Second Day of Gains | W
Biden to Sell More Oil From Strategic Reserve to Keep Gas Prices in Check | W
Central banks
Fed's Bostic: U.S. needs to work through labor market "shuffle and churn" | R
ECB set to warn of risks in its non-binding opinion on Spanish tax proposal, sources say | R
Energy
EU Seeks Power to Set Emergency Cap on Gas Prices | W
French Protests Highlight Pressure on European Leaders From Energy Crisis | W
Biden to lay out plan to complete emergency oil sales, support U.S. production | R
Fashion Industry Gets Torn by Europe’s Soaring Energy Bills | W
US
Inflation Causes IRS to Raise Tax Brackets, Standard Deduction by 7% | W
Currency hit to N. American companies seen 'bad' after rough Q2 -report | R
Home Buyers Flock to Florida Cities Devastated by Hurricane Ian | W
China
Xi Jinping’s Ideological Ambition Challenges China’s Economic Prospects | W
Geopolitics & trade
Russian commander admits situation is 'tense' for his forces in Ukraine | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Rolls-Royce has over 300 orders for its $413,000 Spectre electric vehicle | C
Financials: Goldman Shuffle Aims to Reduce Reliance on M&A | W
Materials: EXCLUSIVE Glencore delivers Russian-origin aluminum into LME system -sources | R
Media: Netflix Gains 2.4 Million New Subscribers, Reversing Trend | W
October 18 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Going Fishing
Our bond market analysis suggests that the 10-year Treasury bond yield might peak at 4.00%-4.25%, probably in November after the Fed raises the federal funds rate by 75bps and possibly in anticipation of one final 75bps hike in December that puts the terminal federal funds rate at 4.50%-4.75%. … Our stock market outlook involves the S&P 500 remaining in a volatile trading range between 3666 and 4305 for the rest of this year. ... Also: Why hasn’t the labor-force participation rate snapped back to its pre-pandemic levels now that the pandemic has abated? Melissa explores various reasons. … And: She examines trends perpetuating today’s extreme labor shortages.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 17.
Markets
U.S. Stocks Jump, With Dow Up About 550 Points | W
Energy
U.S. Permian oil production forecast to hit record in November -EIA | R
White House Planning Oil Reserve Release Announcement This Week | B
Dozens of LNG-laden ships queue off Europe's coasts unable to unload | R
New England Risks Winter Blackouts as Gas Supplies Tighten | W
Exclusive: Exxon exits Russia empty-handed with oil project 'unilaterally terminated' | R
US
US Recession Forecast Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden Before Midterms | B
Democrats Spent $2 Trillion to Save the Economy. They Don’t Want to Talk About It. | N
Mark Mobius Warns US Interest Rates Will Hit 9% If Inflation Persists | B
JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Trims Risk as He Turns More Wary on Economy | B
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says the U.S. consumer is healthy | C
Europe
UK Prime Minister Truss says 'sorry' for mistakes, but 'I'm sticking around' | R
Emerging
China Abruptly Delays GDP Release During Communist Party Conference | W
China’s Xi Jinping Likely to Pack Party Leadership With Allies in Show of Strength | W
Warren Buffet bails as Chinese economy flounders, tensions rise | P
Asia could stand out from economic doom and gloom next year: economists | C
Geopolitics & trade
US's Blinken Says China Wants to Seize Taiwan on ‘Much Faster Timeline’ | B
U.S. condemns 'war crimes' after Russia drone attack hits Kyiv apartment block | R
Marine Le Pen Wants France to Chart Its Own Course Between U.S. and Russia | W
The string of mysterious deaths among businessmen in Putin’s Russia, explained | Vox
Industries & companies
Autos: Are electric vehicles really better? | The Week
Autos: GM's Cadillac Celestiq EV costs $300,000 and is customizable | C
Media: Netflix Seeks Ways to Get Subscribers to Return After Visits Decline | W
Tech: We need to keep Big Tech strong — so it can keep America strong | P
Wireless: A New Space Race Targets the Smartphone | W
Wireless: Why smartphones are getting cheaper in the CPI | C
Technology
Meet the Army of Robots Coming to Fill In for Scarce Workers | W
Corporate finance
Regulators should finally require some transparency of large private firms | The Hill
Kanye West to Buy Parler, a Libertarian Social-Media Platform, Company Says | W
Beyond markets
The NFL is a ticking time bomb. Congress could set it off. | MSNBC
Despite What the Experts Told You, This Was Never ‘Inflation’ | FO
Many Americans Ignore Covid Boosters as Winter, Variants Loom | W
October 17 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Mostly All About Inflation
More persistently pernicious inflation than expected is at the root of the financial market’s bearish sentiment. Revenues, profit margins, and earnings have been holding up relatively well; the market’s big problem is a significant downward rerating of the P/E multiples that investors are willing to pay in this inflationary economic environment. ... We continue to think the economy is undergoing a rolling recession afflicting different industries at different times. We also think that inflation might be following a similar rolling script. Notably, goods inflation pressures have abated as services inflation pressures have picked up.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 10.
Markets
Whiplash in Stock Market Shows Investors Are Still on Edge | W
The Stock Market Rebound Fizzled. Why a Real Bottom Could Be Forming Soon. | BR
Markets are reeling from higher rates. The world economy is next | E
Stocks Look Alluring for the Longer Term, say U.S. money managers | BR
If Ukraine Wins and Putin Loses, What Happens to Markets? | BR
Junk-Rated Companies Search for the Right Time to Tap Investors | W
Commodities
OPEC+ members line up to endorse output cut after U.S. coercion claim | R
OPEC production cuts: Why Saudi Arabia’s move might not help Russia all that much | Vox
Gazprom CEO says gas price cap would lead to supply halt | R
Column: Record European copper premiums as buyers shut out Russia | R
Global
High Inflation Darkens Global Economic Outlook | W
Households across the rich world have never been so gloomy | E
Central banks
The Fed will continue to raise interest rates: How high could they go? | The Hill
US
How Americans feel about the economy | E
When Mortgage Rates Might Stop Rising, and More Takeaways From a Top Housing Market Economist | BR
Some Companies Are Leaving California as It Pushes Ahead on Regulations | BR
White House pushes ahead research to cool Earth by reflecting sunlight | C
Europe
Thousands take to the streets of Paris to protest soaring prices | R
China
China’s Xi Is Getting a Third Term. Investors Are Hoping Something Gives. | BR
Xi Jinping’s Quest for Control Over China Targets Even Old Friends | W
China's Xi talks up security, reiterates COVID stance as congress opens | R
China's Xi downplays need for rapid growth, praises Covid achievements | C
At China’s Communist Party congress, Xi Jinping sails on undaunted | E
An obsession with control is making China weaker but more dangerous | E
China is no longer just any emerging market | C
Geopolitics & trade
Failure to Control Ukraine’s Skies Betrays Key Flaw in Russia’s War Strategy | W
Xi warns against Taiwan interference at China's CPC national congress | C
Industries & companies
Autos: For GM auto union workers, there's still a lot to learn about EVs | C
Financials: The Stocks Are Down, but Regional Banks Are Stress-Tested With 4% Dividends | BR
Materials: 8 Mining Stocks: Why Their Long-Term Outlook Is Bright | BR
Retail: Kohl's Faces a New Activist Push to Change Its Board | BR
Tech: Tech Companies Embrace Silicon Valley, Despite Rising Regulation | BR
Tech: Why the Chip-Ban Panic Over Taiwan Semiconductor May Be Overblown | BR
Tech: Meta Horizon Worlds metaverse losing users, falling short of goals: Report | C
Technology
Meet the Army of Robots Coming to Fill In for Scarce Workers | W
Climate
Shasta Lake Helped Water California; Now Its Dryness Is a Threat to the State | W
Beyond markets
Elites realize they need blue-collar workers they derided | P
It is becoming harder to take off a sick day | E
Elon Musk tweets on Starlink: 'We’ll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free' | C
October 15 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Semis, Valuation & Energy
The cyclical S&P 500 Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment industry indexes have had a terrible week and year. … Also: The stock market’s poor recent performance has been mostly attributable to valuation resets at lower levels. Jackie finds a mixed valuation picture among sectors and industries. … And: Developments that exert upward pressure on oil prices have been countered by factors with the opposite effect; three in particular have been sapping global demand for oil lately.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 10.
Markets
Stocks Drop After Wild Surge on Wall Street | W
Dow closes 400 points lower to end a wild week of trading | C
Groping for a Bottom - The Big Picture (ritholtz.com)
Jamie Dimon says expect 'other surprises’ from choppy markets after U.K. pensions nearly imploded | C
OPEC+ Cuts Could Lead To Supply Deficit In Oil Markets | OilPrice.com
Global
IMF Urges Faster Debt Relief for Nations Fighting High Inflation, Hunger | W
Central banks
Federal Reserve probing Bostic's trading after blackout period transactions | C
Exclusive-Fed's Bullard favors 'frontloading' rate hikes now, with wait-and-see stance in 2023
US
Americans Spend Less on Gas, More on Food as Inflation Varies Across Items | W
Inflation and the Midterm Elections | W
Deere invests $29.8M to shift production from China to Louisiana (NYSE:DE) | Seeking Alpha
Europe
U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss Fires Treasury Chief, U-Turns on Taxes | W
China
Xi Jinping’s Endgame: A China Prepared for Conflict With the U.S. | W
A Slew of China Builders Gets Ratings Dropped as Crisis Worsens | B
Chinese Internet Users Lose Access to WeChat App After Beijing Protest | W
Geopolitics & trade
Exclusive: EU ministers to discuss Iran drones to Russia, future sanctions, sources say | R
Sweden shuns formal joint investigation of Nord Stream leak, citing national security | R
Marine Le Pen Wants France to Chart Its Own Course Between U.S. and Russia | W
U.S. Has Made ‘Dramatic Change’ in Technology Used for Nuclear Code System | W
Industries & companies
Autos: Lithium for Tesla, EVs, batteries: Touring Silver Peak, Nevada | C
Pharma: Review: Abbott Freestyle Libre 3 CGM for diabetics | C
Retail: Retail Spending Was Flat in September Amid High Inflation | W
Corporate finance
Kroger and Albertsons in Deal Talks to Create Supermarket Powerhouse | W
Fed Approves U.S. Bancorp Acquisition of MUFG Union Bank | W
Beyond markets
Omicron BA.5 is declining as emerging variants gain ground: CDC data | C
October 14 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Semis, Valuation & Energy
The cyclical S&P 500 Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment industry indexes have had a terrible week and year. … Also: The stock market’s poor recent performance has been mostly attributable to valuation resets at lower levels. Jackie finds a mixed valuation picture among sectors and industries. … And: Developments that exert upward pressure on oil prices have been countered by factors with the opposite effect; three in particular have been sapping global demand for oil lately.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 10.
Markets
Dow Closes More Than 800 Points Higher in Volatile Day | W
Bond Yields End Higher After Wild Session, Lifted By Inflation Data | W
As Bond Investors’ Bets Blow Up, They Might Usher In Era of Higher Rates | W
Central banks
Inflation Report Seals Case for 0.75-Point Fed Rate Rise in November | W
A gummy theory for the Fed's high-stakes interest rate gamble | NN
Energy
Threat Against Gas Plant in Norway Rattles Tense European Markets | W
Column: Europe's gas prices retreat as storage almost full | R
EU Readies New Proposals to Drive Down Energy Costs | W
A shift in global energy demand could be coming this winter | C
Biden signals new effort to lower gasoline prices next week | R
US
Inflation Sits at 8.2% as Core Prices Hit Four-Decade High | W
Inflation’s Storm From the Shelter | W
Here's the inflation breakdown for September 2022 — in one chart | C
Mortgage Rates Hit 6.92%, a 20-Year High | W
Delaying big purchases, reducing debt: How to prepare for a recession | C
Opinion: Employers should stop caring so much about college degrees | NN
China
Morning Bid: Xi bangs the drums | R
What Do Chinese People Think of Xi Jinping? It’s Very Hard to Tell | W
Posh ice cream, craft beer in vogue as Chinese downsize their love of luxury | R
Geopolitics & trade
Analysis: China faces its "Sputnik" moment as US export curbs deal a blow to its chip ambitions | R
Seoul scrambles fighters as North Korean planes fly close to border | R
Treasury's Yellen says Russia's war has weakened its economy | C
Exclusive: Russia is prepared to quit Black Sea grains deal, writes to UN with demands | R
Industries & companies
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon executives overseeing Alexa, hardware group depart the company | C
Financials: BlackRock Profit Falls 16% | W
Media: Netflix’s Ad-Supported Plan Will Launch in November at $6.99 a Month | W
Media: Netflix to get Nielsen ratings as streaming giant rolls out ad-supported plan | C
Tech: Inside Mark Zuckerberg’s Metaverse Struggles | N
Climate
White House pushes ahead research to cool Earth by reflecting sunlight | C
Beyond markets
U.S. extends Covid public health emergency | C
Ben Bernanke Led the Fed During the Global Financial Crisis | N
October 13 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Semis, Valuation & Energy
The cyclical S&P 500 Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment industry indexes have had a terrible week and year. … Also: The stock market’s poor recent performance has been mostly attributable to valuation resets at lower levels. Jackie finds a mixed valuation picture among sectors and industries. … And: Developments that exert upward pressure on oil prices have been countered by factors with the opposite effect; three in particular have been sapping global demand for oil lately.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 10.
Markets
S&P 500 closes lower, notching six days of losses ahead of key inflation report | C
Stocks Slip After Fed Minutes and Inflation Data | W
Stocks Move in Lockstep as Fed’s Rate Increases Show No Mercy | W
Cash is king again as money managers are in no rush to embrace risk with Fed raising rates | C
Treasury yields fall slightly as traders await Thursday's CPI report | C
Column: OPEC+ risks overtightening the oil market | R
Central banks
Federal Reserve Worry About Faster Inflation at Last Meeting | N
Fed officials worried more about doing too little on inflation than too much | R
Fed Minutes Show Concerns of More Persistent High Inflation | W
How the Fed Might Slow Down | W
ECB closing in on rule change to shave banking profits, sources say | R
Global
IMF Urges Governments Restrain Spending to Fight Inflation | W
Treasury's Yellen says global economy faces headwinds, warns of geopolitical 'coercion' | R
US
Consumer inflation seen to have run hot in September, boosted by rent | C
Labor Hoarding Could be Good News for the Economy | N
ACT Test Scores Drop to Lowest Levels in More Than 30 Years | W
China
A Dissident Escapes Xi Jinping’s China and a Life ‘Made Up of Lies’ | W
Europe
Bank of England Ultimatum Puts New Pressure on U.K. Markets | W
U.K. Pension Funds Rush to Raise Cash as Central-Bank Deadline Looms | W
Geopolitics & trade
How Ukrainian Strategy Is Running Circles Around Russia’s Lumbering Military | W
U.N. denounces Russian 'annexation' while West backs Ukraine with more air defenses | R
U.S. may block Russian aluminum imports -source | R
Putin moots gas hub in Turkey with Nord Stream supplies | R
Special Report: U.S. firm supplied networking tech to maker of Russian missiles | R
U.S. Sees ‘Decisive Decade’ Ahead in Competition With China, Russia | W
Industries & companies
Autos: GM's Chevrolet Trax crossover comes with new tech, design, lower price | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon's growing private label business is challenge for small brands | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon Second Prime Day: Shoppers Pick Household Goods Over Pricey TVs, Laptops | B
Tech: The Quest Pro’s $1,500 ticket to Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse | Vox
Beyond markets
Deadly Ebola Outbreak Spreads to Uganda’s Capital | W
October 12 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: The Most Widely Anticipated Recession In History
Some areas of US economy are thriving while others flounder, and several looming challenges signal tough times ahead. JPMorgan Chase’s CEO yesterday said a recession is coming. Our assessment is that a rolling recession is already here and should linger well into next year. … We’re raising our Q3 forecast for real GDP and lowering our Q4 one. … Notably, small business owners remain depressed, with inflation topping their worry list even as they’re forced to exacerbate it. … Also: Industry analysts have been continuing to lower their earnings sights; we may do the same for S&P 500 earnings this year and next depending on the strength of Q3 earnings results.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 10.
Markets
Further 20% fall in U.S. stocks ‘certainly possible’: IMF director | C
Federal Officials Trade Stock in Companies Their Agencies Oversee | W
Global
IMF Warns Rate Increases Could Spur A Global Recession | N
IMF Warns of Growing Global Risks, Says U.K. Turmoil Largely Contained | W
US I
Biden Says Very Slight Recession Is Possible, but He Doesn’t Anticipate One | W
U.S. mortgage interest rates rise to highest level since 2006 | R
Demand for riskier home loans is high as interest rates soar | C
Supplier-Price Report to Offer Clues on September Inflation Trend | W
US II
Federal Deficit Fell by $1.4 Trillion in Fiscal Year 2022, CBO Estimates | W
The never-ending state of rotten and excessive government | WT
Legal challenges could hamper U.S. rule to limit independent contracting | R
Whither Long-Term Inflation? | Morningstar
China
American Universities Continue to Falter in World Rankings as China Rises | W
China's 'liberal' Wang Yang seen as possible premier as reshuffle looms | R
Japan
Japan Bond Market Sets Record for Nothing Happening | W
Geopolitics & trade
NATO, partners to discuss bolstering Ukraine air defence | R
Putin blames Europe for energy crisis as EU works on price cap | R
U.S. Suppliers Halt Operations at Top Chinese Memory Chip Maker | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: United adds new trans-Atlantic flights for summer 2023 in bet on travel recovery | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon cost cuts under Andy Jassy reflect new reality after 25 years | C
Tech: The CHIPS Act alone won’t secure US semiconductor supply chains | The Hill
Tech: Meta Quest Pro: A $1,500 Virtual-Reality Headset for Working in the Metaverse | W
Corporate finance
Philips to Take $1.3 Billion Write-Down on Sleep-Apnea Business | W
Vista Equity Nears Roughly $4.5 Billion Deal for Cybersecurity Provider | W
Beyond markets
Covid news: U.S. is tracking omicron subvariants but booster should protect | C
October 11 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: More Inflation (News) Is Coming
The financial markets have been laser focused on inflation news this year, and are bracing for the next couple of days’ releases. Thursday’s CPI report for September is bound to move the markets, and tomorrow should bring a sneak peek of what it holds in store via the PPI release, specifically its personal consumption expenditures index. … Today, we examine the inflation information available to date in preparation for the big releases. … Notably, global supply-chain pressures eased in September, and the prices-paid indexes in both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMIs are way down from their peaks.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 10.
Markets
Nasdaq registers lowest close since July 2020; chips stocks fall | R
German bond yields jump after Scholz reported to support joint EU debt | R
Central banks
Two Fed Officials Make Case for Caution With Future Interest Rate Raises | W
Fed's Evans says fighting inflation is the top priority even if that means job losses | C
Ark's Cathie Wood issues open letter to the Fed, saying it is risking an economic 'bust' | C
Why Is the Fed Always Late to the Party? | The Big Picture
Bank of England Offers More Support for Pension Funds Amid Crisis | W
Global
World’s Emergency-Lending Capacity Is Getting Stretched as Crises Deepen | W
US
Price Increases Come Easily for Big Businesses, but Inflation Still Squeezes Profits | W
JPMorgan CEO Dimon warns of recession in 6 to 9 months - CNBC | R
Paul Tudor Jones believes we are in or near a recession and history shows stocks have more to fall | C
Fix the housing market by widening the pathway to work | Washington Examiner
Europe
Column: Pension fund jam may jolt private credit boom | R
Geopolitics & trade
Sweden won't share Nord Stream investigation findings with Russia - PM | R
Russia Unleashes Its Biggest Barrage of Strikes on Ukraine Since Invasion | W
Industries & companies
Autos: GM, Ford shares tumble after UBS downgrades cite weakening demand | C
Retail: Retailers Kick Off Black Friday in October Again, This Time With Too Much Stuff | W
Tech: PC shipments fall for HP, Lenovo and Dell but Apple shipments rise in Q3 | C
Corporate finance
Bio-Rad Laboratories in Talks to Combine With Qiagen | W
Climate
Earthquake rattles Taiwan, but epicentre out at sea | R
Beyond markets
Why China was quiet quitting well before the rest of the world caught on | C
October 10 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Volcker 2.0 vs Bernanke 2.0?
Our current Fed chief has recently turned to Paul Volcker’s playbook to fight inflation. The risk is that he will trigger the kind of financial instability that occurred during Ben Bernanke’s term as Fed chair. Powell and his colleagues seem hellbent on further rate hikes with no pause to assess the impacts of recent ones. One Fed governor recognizes the risks of doing so but agrees with the Fed’s risky course. Another one is quite dismissive of financial stability concerns. But we see red flags in the weakness of the housing market, the negative wealth effect, and the strength of the dollar. … Also: The labor market remains robust, but wage inflation may be peaking. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Operation Mincemeat” (+ +).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 3.
Markets
Growth Funds Gave Hopes to Investors in the Third Quarter. They Disappointed Instead. | BR
Since 1311 bond yields have fallen with metronomic regularity | E
Currencies
The U.S. Dollar Is Superstrong. 8 Ways to Invest Abroad. | BR
Strong Dollar Pressures U.S. Manufacturing Rebound | W
Global
A new macroeconomic era is emerging. What will it look like? | E
Elderly populations mean more government spending | E
Steel and Iron-Ore Prices Are Weakening as Global Economy Slows | BR
Central banks
Policymakers are likely to jettison their 2% inflation targets | E
Fed’s Inflation Fight Has Some Economists Fearing an Unnecessarily Deep Downturn | W
Payrolls Are Strong, Oil Is Rising, and the Fed Seems Intent on Raising Rates. | BR
US
The inflation problem will get better before it gets worse | E
Allianz Chief Economic Adviser El-Erian believes core inflation 'is still going up' | C
The Biden administration is quietly completing bits of Donald Trump’s wall | E
Europe
Europe Can Weather a Recession, Says Franklin Templeton’s Katrina Dudley | BR
Can Italy’s Giorgia Meloni afford the things she wants? | E
There are not enough Germans to do the jobs Germany needs | E
China
China’s Xi Is Getting a Third Term. Investors Are Hoping Something Gives. | BR
Xi’s Third Term Will Double Down on a Mission of Revitalizing Chinese Socialism | BR
Japan
Japan reopens to tourists with shuttered souvenir shops, hotel staff shortage | R
Energy
Why fracking cannot solve Europe’s energy crisis | E
Paris Cuts the Lights to Save Energy. Will It Help? | W
Geopolitics & trade
Russia Scrambles to Reconnect Supply Lines to Crimea After Bridge Explosion | W
Putin accuses Ukraine of Crimea bridge blast, calls it terrorism | R
North Korea launches missile toward sea after U.S.-South Korea drills | C
Industries & companies
Autos: Not Ready to Go Full EV? Some Car Companies Bet Bigger on Hybrids | W
Autos: Tesla sells record China-made vehicles in September following Shanghai factory upgrade | C
Media: Showtime chief's exit signals Paramount moving toward streaming merger | C
Retail: Retailers trot out 12-foot skeletons to boost Halloween sales | C
Corporate finance
Elon Musk’s Twitter Deal Is Very Pricey. Here’s the Math. | BR
Technology
Generative AI: Silicon Valley's next trillion-dollar companies? | C
Beyond markets
Space mining business still highly speculative | C
October 08 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Earnings, JOLTS & Housing
While S&P 500 forward revenues has hit successive record highs lately, the forward profit margin and forward earnings both peaked in June. Since then, forward earnings has been flat. We see more of the same for earnings given our expectation that economic growth will be close to zero in our growth recession scenario. … Also: One in three workers quit their jobs over the past year! But their ex-employers quickly rehired. We examine the reasons for the labor market’s mind-boggling pace of job churn. … And: Home affordability challenges have sent the recently hot housing market into a deep freeze. Melissa traces the causes and the effects on homebuilders.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 3.
Markets
Dow drops 600 points, Nasdaq closes 3% lower as rates pop after September jobs report | C
Treasury Yields Rise After Jobs Data | W
Energy
OPEC+ oil output cut shows widening rift between Biden and Saudi royals | R
EXCLUSIVE U.S. Navy jet flew across Baltic hours after Nord Stream burst | R
Central banks
Fed to deliver another big rate hike as job market fails to cool | R
Fed on Track for Another Large Interest-Rate Hike After Jobs Report | W
Fed Officials Say Stubborn Inflation Justifies Continued Rate Increases | W
September job gains affirm that the Fed has a long way to go in inflation fight | C
Global Fallout From Rate Moves Won’t Stop the Fed | N
US
U.S. Economy Added 263,000 Jobs in September, Labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling | W
Unemployment rate falls to 3.5% in September, payrolls rise by 263,000 as job market stays strong | C
Here's where the jobs are for September 2022 - in one chart | C
Europe
German Production Falls as Higher Energy Prices Hit Manufacturing | W
China
In China, a European executive becomes an increasingly rare critical voice | R
Geopolitics & trade
Biden Warns of Growing Nuclear Risk as Ukraine Slams Russia for Drone Use | W
U.S. buys radiation sickness drug as part of long-standing program | R
U.S. aims to hobble China's chip industry with sweeping new export rules | R
U.S. Restricts Semiconductor Exports in Bid to Slow China’s Military Advance | W
Industries & companies
Autos: New cars are finally back in stock, but they come at a steep price | C
Autos: Tesla stock had its worst week since March 2020 amid wild week for Musk | C
Autos: Rivian Recalling Nearly All of Its Vehicles | W
Retail: Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale 2022: Here are the best deals | C
Media: You Hated Your Cable Package. Your Streaming Services Are Bringing It Back. | W
Pharma: FDA clears whooping cough vaccine for use during pregnancy to protect newborns | C
Beyond markets
Covid vaccines prevented at least 330,000 deaths among U.S. seniors in 2021 | C
New York City Declares Emergency Over Migrant Influx | W
October 07 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary:
On Earnings, JOLTS & Housing
While S&P 500 forward revenues has hit successive record highs lately, the forward profit margin and forward earnings both peaked in June. Since then, forward earnings has been flat. We see more of the same for earnings given our expectation that economic growth will be close to zero in our growth recession scenario. … Also: One in three workers quit their jobs over the past year! But their ex-employers quickly rehired. We examine the reasons for the labor market’s mind-boggling pace of job churn. … And: Home affordability challenges have sent the recently hot housing market into a deep freeze. Melissa traces the causes and the effects on homebuilders.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 3.
Markets
Wall Street closes lower as the Fed pounds rate hike drum | R
Stocks close lower as investors await September jobs report, Dow drops nearly 350 points | C
Why Wall Street shouldn't sweat the midterms | CNN
U.K. Bond Markets Come Under Pressure Again | W
Central banks
Fed Official Says Inflation Is ‘Stubbornly Persistent,’ Justifying Rapid Rate Rises | W
The Fed Wants to Quash Inflation. But Can It Do It More Gently? | N
The Fed Has to Stay the Course Against Inflation | W
Energy
Britain could face three-hour power cuts this winter, National Grid warns | R
Column: Third European smelter closure compounds zinc conundrum | R
Biden Weighs Options After OPEC+ Moves to Cut Oil Output | W
Shell Braces for Profit Hit From Volatile Natural-Gas Prices, Rising Costs | W
Column: Outsized OPEC+ output cut raises global risks | R
Global
IMF to Lower Global 2023 Growth Forecast Amid Shocks to Economy | W
US
Column: Earnings squeeze heralds winter freeze on Wall Street | R
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Climbing Again, Pressuring Consumers | W
Conagra Says Food Inflation Shows Signs of Moderating | W
‘Hiring Has Never Been Harder!’ | W
Biden pardons thousands of people convicted of marijuana possession, orders review of federal pot law | C
Hunter Biden case: Feds believe evidence supports tax and gun charges | C
Industries & companies
Consumer Discretionary: How this popular Jeff Bezos quote drives Amazon's climate goals | C
Media: How YouTube Created the Attention Economy | The New Yorker
Corporate finance
Twitter, Elon Musk Talks Continue, Focus on Financing, Litigation | W
Beyond markets
Ebola: U.S. will screen people arriving at airports from Uganda | C
COVID wave looms in Europe as booster campaign makes slow start | R
October 06 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Earnings, JOLTS & Housing
While S&P 500 forward revenues has hit successive record highs lately, the forward profit margin and forward earnings both peaked in June. Since then, forward earnings has been flat. We see more of the same for earnings given our expectation that economic growth will be close to zero in our growth recession scenario. … Also: One in three workers quit their jobs over the past year! But their ex-employers quickly rehired. We examine the reasons for the labor market’s mind-boggling pace of job churn. … And: Home affordability challenges have sent the recently hot housing market into a deep freeze. Melissa traces the causes and the effects on homebuilders.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 3.
Markets
Stocks Close Lower After Two-Day Rally | W
Traders Pile Into Boom-or-Bust Options to Play Stock Market Volatility | W
Currencies & commodities
A Strong Dollar Is Wreaking Havoc on Emerging Markets. A Debt Crisis Could Be Next. | N
What a Strong U.S. Dollar Means for Investors | Morningstar
OPEC+ agrees deep oil production cuts, Biden calls it shortsighted | R
Central banks
Fed’s Rate Increases Defy All the Rules | W
Fed's Bostic says inflation fight "still in early days" | R
Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine recovers more territory in region Russia claims to have annexed | R
U.S. Looks to Ease Venezuela Sanctions, Enabling Chevron to Pump Oil | W
North Korea fires a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan | C
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford ups starting price of electric F-150 Lightning pickup to $51,974 | C
Retail: How Macy’s Has Avoided—So Far—the Inventory Pileup Plaguing Other Apparel Chains | W
Corporate finance
Elon Musk and Twitter Discussed Price Cut to $44 Billion Takeover in Recent Weeks | W
Beyond markets
Colleges struggle with enrollment declines, underfunding post-Covid | C
October 05 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Central Bankers, Stocks & Batteries
Policymakers in both China and the UK recently have made policy 180s, abandoning their former plans. Now US financial markets seem to think economic conditions will compel the Fed to do the same, ending this round of tightening sooner rather than later. … Did the stock market’s impressive comeback rally of the past two days benefit the same S&P 500 sectors and industries as last summer’s two-month rally did? Jackie takes a look, isolating the most dramatic winners and losers of both. … And: GM and other companies are charging ahead on the development of solid-state batteries for electric vehicles. In our ongoing coverage of disruptive technologies, we highlight some of their plans.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 3.
Markets
Sterling softens after UK PM Truss speech | R
Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis True? | US News
Global
Opinion | The First Global Deflation Has Begun, and It’s Unclear Just How Painful It Will Be| N
WTO Sees Sharp Slowdown in Global Trade, Pointing to Possible Recession, Lower Inflation | W
Energy
Column: Mission accomplished? Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule | R
High prices, war in Ukraine, a cold winter ahead — and now OPEC+ piles on | The Hill
German minister criticizes U.S. over 'astronomical' natural gas prices | C
Central banks
Fed Official Says Inflation Fight Will Take Time, Despite Signs of Progress | W
Fed's delayed inflation fight sparks fears of a policy overcorrection | R
When Interest Rates Rise Fast, Markets Tend to Break: How to Spot the Cracks | W
US
U.S. Job Openings Fell in August, Layoffs Up Slightly | W
ADP jobs report September 2022: | C
Mortgage applications fall 14% as higher rates, Hurricane Ian crush demand | C
What Biden must do right now to fix our broken economy | FO
Biden’s Student-Loan Forgiveness Test: Processing Millions of Applications | W
Europe
Inflation, Consumer Pessimism Push U.K. Firms to Close Their Doors | W
Column: UK quake could spur pension fund asset 'hibernation' | R
Geopolitics & trade
South Korea, U.S. fire missiles into the sea to protest 'reckless' North Korea test | R
Industries & companies
Autos: U.S. Electric-Vehicle Tax Breaks Rile Asian, European Allies | W
Logistics: LNG shipping rates ‘shooting for the stars’ at $500,000 per day | freightwaves.com
Tech: Apple Told to Ditch Unique iPhone Charger in EU | W
Corporate finance
Elon Musk wants to buy Twitter for $44 billion again. What changed? | Vox
Beyond markets
These executives are asking their staff to work less for the same money. Will it pay off? | NN
October 04 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Valuation, Liquidity & Inflation
The S&P 500’s forward P/E has sunk practically to its historical average of 15.0. What happens to it next depends much on what happens to the economy. If our growth recession scenario continues to play out (to which we subjectively assign 60% odds), the historical average valuation likely will hold and the S&P 500 drift sideways until climbing again in 2023; if a hard-landing recession scenario unfolds (40% odds), the P/E may sink into the single digits. … On the bright side, the financial markets have plenty of liquidity to buoy valuations. … Also: We look at what inflation has been doing by two different measures, the CPI and PCED, and examine how they differ.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on October 3.
Markets
Stocks surge to kick off October and a new quarter as bond yields tumble, Dow closes up 760 points | C
U.S. Stocks Rally to Start New Quarter | W
For Corporate America, Strong U.S. Dollar Cuts Both Ways | W
Column: Iron ore navigates choppy seas amid some positive China signs | R
Column: Crop Watch: Mass bean harvest fails to bring impressive yields | R
Energy
China Is Rerouting U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas to Europe at a Big Profit | W
US
U.S. manufacturing nearly brakes; price pressures abating | R
A new definition of what makes a job good | The Hill
Will DHS Again Leave H-2B Winter Industries Short Workers? | Cato at Liberty Blog
Port of New York moves ahead with ocean carrier empty container fee | C
Emerging
Right-wing wins in Brazil's Congress show staying power of 'Bolsonarismo' | R
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airlines Face a Shortage of New Boeing, Airbus Jets | W
Autos: As More Cars Hit Dealership Lots, Buyers Feel Pinch of Rising Interest Rates | W
Autos: Rivian production grows 67% in 3Q, confirms 2022 goals | C
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon's latest product announcements are a reminder the company is always watching | CNN
Tech: Apple’s Fall 2022 Event Products: Reviews of iPhone 14, iOS 16, Apple Watch Ultra, AirPods Pro 2 and More | W
Beyond markets
Ukrainian ambassador tells Elon Musk off after billionaire's Twitter poll | C
Trump sues CNN claiming defamation, seeks $475 million in punitive damages | R
October 03 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Volcker 2.0, Recession & Inflation
The latest economic indicators suggest that the economy is doing better than expected—supported by consumer spending but dragged down by the housing recession—but also that inflation remains too high. That alignment increases the odds of more Fed tightening than previously expected, a higher terminal fed funds rate, and a Fed-induced hard landing. A hard landing isn’t currently our economic forecast—we see the growth recession continuing through year-end. But fears of a Fed-induced hard landing are increasing bearishness in both bond and stock markets. We are assessing whether our forecasts for both S&P 500 earnings and valuation might be too optimistic. … Also: Dr. Ed reviews “Blonde” (+).
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 26.
Markets
Markets are reeling from higher rates. The world economy is next | E
After Punishing Year for Stocks, Investors Aren’t Betting on Post-Midterm Rally | W
Bond Yields Are Finally Looking Attractive. What to Buy Now. | BR
How to Build a Bond Ladder for Income | BR
Column: Dollar shock threatens global economy | R
Liability Driven Investment (LDI*) – quick explainer | Word Press
Energy
Russia’s Gazprom Suspends Gas Flow to Italy | W
OPEC+ to consider oil cut of over than 1 million barrels per day | R
Central banks
Central Banks’ Higher Rates, Bond Sales Clash With Government Needs | W
‘The Fed is breaking things’ – Here’s what has Wall Street on edge as risks rise around the world | C
Opinion | Is the Fed Braking Too Hard? | N
Column: BoE in murky water with qualified 'whatever it takes' | R
Global
A European Recession Will Hurt the U.S. Economy and Complicate the Defense of Ukraine | BR
US
Inflation Keeps the U.S. From Stepping In to Slow Dollar’s Rapid Rise | W
'Big Short' investor Michael Burry suggests current economic downturn could be 'worse than 2008' | P
Recession could be big obstacle for Starbucks, Amazon unions | C
Europe
U.K. Might Look Cheap, but It’s Hardly a Bargain Yet | BR
China
How to make sense of Xi Jinping, China’s enigmatic ruler | E
Geopolitics & trade
Autos: Lithium Demand From EVs Is Strong. Shortages Will Keep Prices High. | BR
Autos: Lithium-Ion Battery Inventor Introduces New Technology for Fast-Charging, Noncombustible Batteries | UT News
Autos: Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda talks EV skepticism, 'happy dance,' his legacy | C
Retail: Walmart bets inflation will push customers to join subscription service | C
Climate
To protect Germany’s green transition, accept coal and nuclear power, says Veronika Grimm | E
Biden to visit Florida and Puerto Rico as scale of Hurricane Ian's death and destruction emerges | C
Search and rescue efforts underway in Florida after 'catastrophic' hurricane | C
Beyond markets
Elon Musk’s Texts Shatter the Myth of the Tech Genius | The Atlantic
October 01 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Troubled Times In The UK & China
In the UK, fiscal and monetary policy are at odds. Massive tax cuts and new spending programs will boost government debt—aggravating inflation even as the BOE is trying to subdue it. Bond Vigilantes clearly disapprove. … In China, the real estate sector is in shambles, and the government’s investments abroad are going belly up. A messy debt restructuring looks likely. The PBOC is hustling to prop up both the falling yuan and the weakening economy, introducing new rules to discourage shorting the currency and easing monetary policy at a time when other central banks are tightening.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 26.
Markets
Dow tumbles 500 points on Friday to end September down nearly 9% | C
Stocks Finish a Losing Week, Month and Quarter | W
Bonds May Be Having Their Worst Year Yet | N
Central banks
Fed’s Lael Brainard Warns on Inflation, Financial Stability Risks | W
PCE inflation August 2022: Inflation accelerated even more than expected in August | C
Energy
Nord Stream gas 'sabotage': who's being blamed and why? | R
U.S. has much to gain from Nord Stream damage, Russia says at U.N. | R
Nord Stream rupture may mark biggest single methane release ever recorded -UN | R
Exxon CEO Warns Biden Administration Against Limiting Fuel Exports | W
US
U.S. Consumers Boosted August Spending as High Inflation Spread | W
U.S. consumers spurn cars, couches and cruises, results show | R
Underlying Inflation Gained Steam in August | W
Why are ad sales slumping before the economy slumps? - Vox
Fast Food Chains Raise Millions to Oppose California Wage Law | W
House Approves Stopgap Funding Bill With Ukraine Aid | W
Europe
Eurozone Inflation Hits Record 10% Amid Energy Crunch | W
EU Approves Sweeping Energy-Market Intervention | W
S&P cuts UK rating outlook after tax cut plan | R
Geopolitics & trade
Russia Announces Annexation of Four Regions of Ukraine | W
U.S. Dismisses Annexation of Ukraine Regions and Imposes Sanctions on Russian Elites | W
U.S., allies need to be 'concerned' about attacks on Western infrastructure | R
North Korea fires ballistic missiles, marking fourth in a week | C
Industries & companies
Airlines: United Airlines to Suspend Operations at JFK at End of October | W
Autos: Electric and autonomous vehicle ETF falls 15% in September | C
Communications services: Facebook scrambles to escape death spiral as users flee, sales drop | C
Energy: Lithium-Ion Battery Inventor Introduces New Technology for Fast-Charging, Noncombustible Batteries - UT News | utexas.edu
Tech: Smart glasses from Amazon, Meta, and Snap are just the start | qz.com
Technology
Elon Musk Unveils Humanoid Robot Optimus at Tesla’s AI Day | W
Climate
Biden: Destruction from Hurricane Ian likely to be among the worst in U.S. history | R
Drought in U.S. West Leads Farmers to Look Elsewhere for Revenue | W
September 30 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Troubled Times In The UK & China
In the UK, fiscal and monetary policy are at odds. Massive tax cuts and new spending programs will boost government debt—aggravating inflation even as the BOE is trying to subdue it. Bond Vigilantes clearly disapprove. … In China, the real estate sector is in shambles, and the government’s investments abroad are going belly up. A messy debt restructuring looks likely. The PBOC is hustling to prop up both the falling yuan and the weakening economy, introducing new rules to discourage shorting the currency and easing monetary policy at a time when other central banks are tightening.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 26.
Markets
Stocks Close Lower in Volatile Day as Treasury Yields Resume Climb | W
Even as Oil Prices Ease, U.S. Keeps Tapping Strategic Reserve | N
Investors Fear Bond-Market Turmoil Is Entering a New Phase | W
Central banks & currencies
Fed policymakers press ahead with inflation fight, even with markets in turmoil | R
This ‘trifecta’ needs to see dampening inflation for the Fed to stop raising rates | C
Japan to confirm size of yen-buying intervention, eyes on size of war-chest | R
Europe energy
Russia says Nord Stream likely hit by state-backed 'terrorism' | R
US
U.S. Economy Weaker Than Thought in Year’s First Half, by One Measure | N
U.S. Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level in Five Months | W
Why Are Companies Still Hiring When GDP Is Shrinking? | W
Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.7%, Highest Since 2007 | W
Some federal student loan borrowers cannot consolidate for forgiveness | C
China
China’s ‘Absurd’ Covid Propaganda Stirs Rebellion | N
Geopolitics & trade
Putin to host Kremlin ceremony annexing parts of Ukraine | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Toyota CEO doubles down on EV strategy amid criticism it's not moving fast enough | C
Pharma: FDA approves controversial new drug designed to slow the progression of ALS | C
Retail: How to make the most of Amazon's 'Prime Day' and Target's 'Deal Days' | C
Tech: Apple sparks tech sell-off; Alphabet, Microsoft hit 52-week lows | C
Climate
New York State to Ban Sale of Gasoline-Powered Vehicles by 2035 | W
September 29 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Troubled Times In The UK & China
In the UK, fiscal and monetary policy are at odds. Massive tax cuts and new spending programs will boost government debt—aggravating inflation even as the BOE is trying to subdue it. Bond Vigilantes clearly disapprove. … In China, the real estate sector is in shambles, and the government’s investments abroad are going belly up. A messy debt restructuring looks likely. The PBOC is hustling to prop up both the falling yuan and the weakening economy, introducing new rules to discourage shorting the currency and easing monetary policy at a time when other central banks are tightening.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 26.
Markets
Wednesday’s market rally was ‘based on a dream’ | C
Global central banks & currencies
Bank of England Buys Bonds in Bid to Stop Spread of Crisis | W
Pension fund panic led to Bank of England's emergency intervention | C
Exclusive: China's state banks told to stock up for yuan intervention | R
'Do not bet': China's central bank PBOC warns against yuan speculation | C
Federal reserve
Column: Fed's neutral rate forecast nods to 'transitory', eventual pivot | R
Jerome Powell’s inflation-unemployment tradeoff | The Hill
Interest Rates and Fed Tightening | AIER
Fed has not done enough, must continue on its path to reset inflation expectations | C
Europe energy
Spain says Russia likely responsible for Nord Stream gas leaks | C
Fourth leak found on Nord Stream pipelines, Swedish coastguard says | R
Exclusive: Europe braces for mobile network blackouts | R
Energy Crisis Pushes German Industry to the Brink | W
Global
Developing Countries Face Stiff Economic Headwinds, World Bank Chief Says | W
US
How the United States is exporting inflation to other countries | NN
Opinion | FOMO Helped Drive Up Housing Prices in the Pandemic. What Can We Expect Next? | N
China
Chinese Developers Meltdown | C
Geopolitics & trade
How the CIA failed Iranian spies in its secret war with Tehran | R
Corporate finance
Brookfield Buys U.S. Renewable Developers for $1.5 Billion | W
Beyond markets
Ian now tropical storm after hitting Florida as a category 4 hurricane | C
The Jetsons, now 60 years old, is iconic. That's a problem. | Slate.com
September 28 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Recessions Here & There
The Fed is hawkish, investors are bearish, and now industry analysts are cutting their earnings estimates after FedEx’s recent warning about macroeconomic trends. ... The latest economic indicators still suggest a growth recession is underway in the US. … Over in Europe, economic prospects are dimming as the daylight hours shorten, with no gas likely from Russia this winter. Dour business sentiment in Germany suggests a broad-based recession there. … With debt limits for EU member countries suspended for another year, we expect governments to make plenty of investments, especially in digital and energy areas.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 26.
Markets
Dow Slips Again After Entering Bear Market | W
Treasury 10-Year Yields Rise Above 4% for First Time Since 2010 | B
Strong Dollar Is Good for the US but Bad for the World | N
Exclusive: China prepares to tweak yuan fixing process to slow its fall -source | R
Column: Copper price slump brings Chinese buyers out in force | R
Central banks
Fed Chair Powell warned of 'pain' to come. Seniors on fixed incomes are already feeling it | NN
Kashkari Says Fed Needs to Keep Tightening Until There’s Compelling Evidence of Declining Inflation | W
Fed's Daly: Do not want to tip economy into downturn | C
US
US Home Prices Fall: Case-Shiller 20-City Index Posts First Decline Since 2012 | B
July S&P Case-Shiller Index: Home prices cooled at the fastest rate in index history | C
Home Prices Suffer First Monthly Decline in Years | W
Stopgap Funding Bill Includes $12.3 Billion in New Ukraine Aid | W
Why is fiscal responsibility not discussed anymore? | The Hill
Geopolitics & trade
EU sees sabotage of Nord Stream, warns against attacks on 'active infrastructure' | R
Ukraine 'sham' referendum results point to Russia annexation | R
Industries & companies
Autos: EV Tax Credits to Spur More Vehicle Sales Are Entering a Critical Phase | W
Autos: Ford unveils new F-Series Super Duty trucks | C
Financials: Wall Street to Pay $1.8 Billion in Fines Over Traders’ Use of Banned Messaging Apps | W
Beyond markets
Opinion | Do Not Bring Your ‘Whole Self’ to Work | N
Cuba entirely without power after Hurricane Ian | R
Teacher, Staff Shortages Reported by About Half of Schools, Survey Finds | W
September 27 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Powell’s Latest Pivot Shocks Markets
Pessimism and bearishness are widespread; from a contrarian standpoint, that spells buying opportunities for the long term. … Meanwhile, monetary tightening appears to be making headway against inflation given the dollar’s strength and weakening commodity prices. We think PCED inflation peaked in June and is on track to fall to 3.0%-4.0% next year. One more 75bps rate hike in November may be enough. … We’ve reassessed our economic and stock market forecasts given renewed Fed hawkishness. We still expect a growth recession and range-bound S&P 500, but with greater short-term downside risk. And we now see the 10-year bond yield peaking at 4.25%. … Also: A dizzying review of Powell’s recent pivots.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 26.
Markets
Dow Industrials Fall Into Bear Market | W
The Dow is in a bear market. What does that mean? | R
Everything-Selloff on Wall Street Deepens on 98% Recession Odds | B
Why Bonds Make Sense for Your Portfolio | Financial Advisors | U.S. News
Central banks
Fed officials stare down markets, say inflation is top focus | R
Boston Fed President Says More Rate Increases Needed to Cool Inflation | W
Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester Says More Restrictive Policy Needed for Longer | B
China’s Central Bank Moves Further to Bolster the Yuan | W
US
Remote Work Drove Over 60% of US House-Price Surge, Fed Study Finds | B
Silicon Valley Had Its Heyday. Can Tech Ecosystems Now Grow Inland? | N
Biden’s Student-Loan Forgiveness Plan Could Cost $400 Billion, CBO Says | W
Europe
British Pound, Bonds Roiled as Tax-Cut Plans Spook Investors | W
China
World Bank Cuts China Growth Forecast as Covid-19, Real-Estate Crunch Take Toll | W
China Industrial Profits Slump Further as Producer Prices Slow | B
China Reins In Its Belt and Road Program, $1 Trillion Later | W
Japan
Japan’s 20-Year Bond Yield Rises Above 1% for First Time Since 2015 | B
Japan prepares to bid farewell to slain Abe with controversial state funeral | R
Geopolitics & trade
Ukraine annexation votes to end amid Russian mobilisation exodus | R
Iran says U.S. attempting to use unrest to weaken country | R
Russia’s War in Ukraine to Cost Global Economy $2.8 Trillion, OECD Says | W
Putin grants Russian citizenship to whistleblower Edward Snowden | C
Industries & companies
Airlines: Southwest Airlines hired a record 3,000 flight attendants so far this year | C
Autos: Ford Seeks New Trial After $1.7 Billion Jury Verdict in Truck Rollover Lawsuit | W
Autos: China's new electric cars cost more to insure than fuel-powered cars | C
Pharma: Biogen to pay $900 million to settle drug kickback allegations | C
Corporate finance
IPO Stocks Have Tumbled, Hobbling Demand for New Listings | W
Beyond markets
Latest Track for Tropical Storm Ian: Where It Will May Make Landfall | B
NASA’s DART Spacecraft to Crash Into Asteroid Tonight in Planetary Defense Test | W
September 26 (Monday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: ‘Keeping At It’
We’re in a period of global gloom, with pessimism blanketing different countries for different reasons. In the US, measures of consumer, investor, and business sentiment all have sunk recently, which the stock market mirrors. America’s despondency stems much from the Fed’s words and deeds as it attempts to corral inflation at all costs. … Today, we offer a brief review of Fed Chair Powell’s public statements over recent months, tracing his increasing hawkishness. … And: How’s the economy been holding up in the face of Fed hawkishness? So far, so good. The latest data jibe with our growth recession scenario, but the risks of a full-blown recession are obviously increasing.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 19.
Markets
Buying the Stock-Market Dip Is Backfiring. Investors Keep Piling In Anyway. | W
Junk-Bond Yields Top 8%. It Could Be a Good Time to Buy. | BR
Why Standard Deviation Is the Wrong Way to Measure Risk in a Bear Market | BR
Never Mind Growth vs. Value Stocks, Look to Beta | Morningstar
Central banks
Central Banks May Stoke Risks by Raising Interest Rates Together | W
The Fed Appears More Optimistic Than Some Investors. Here’s Why. | N
Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects job losses but says there’s a really good chance to get to 2% inflation without killing the economy | C
US
The U.S. Is Running Short of Land for Housing | W
Fight Over Joe Manchin’s Permitting Overhaul Clouds Stopgap Funding Bill Outlook | W
Breaking Down New York’s Long-Awaited Fraud Lawsuit Against Donald Trump | The New Yorker
Europe
How afraid should Europe be of Giorgia Meloni? | E
Exclusive: Italy and Intel pick Veneto as preferred region for new chip plant | R
Geopolitics & trade
U.S. warns of catastrophic consequences if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine | R
Zelenskyy on Putin's threat of nuclear weapons: 'I don't think he's bluffing' | C
Vladimir Putin vows to send more invaders. The West should arm Ukraine faster | E
China Stresses Its Taiwan Stance at U.N. | W
North Korea fires ballistic missile ahead of U.S. VP Harris visit | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Toyota Engages With Critics of Its EV Push | W
Autos: Ford Stock Is Still a Buy, Despite Supply Issues. Here’s Why. | BR
Energy: APA Corp. Scours the Globe for Oil and Gas. Its Stock Could Surge. | BR
Financials: New minimum tax could hit Berkshire Hathaway and Amazon hardest, study shows | C
Healthcare: Healthcare Learned a Lot From Covid. 12 Ways to Invest Now. | BR
Media: 'Avatar' re-release shows franchise's overseas strength | C
Media: 'The Woman King' shows why the box office needs more mid-budget movies | C
Pharma: Trial Results for Biogen’s New Alzheimer’s Drug Are Coming Soon and Have Huge Implications | BR
Retail: What Kroger, Walmart, Target learned from China about grocery's future | C
Climate
An energy crisis and geopolitics are creating a new-look Gulf | E
Climate Change Forces French Vineyards to Alter the Way They Make Wine | W
Beyond markets
How to keep the brain healthy | E
Why Jack Welch Wouldn’t Cut It Today | Institutional Investor
September 24 (Saturday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumers, Lithium & Waves
With recession fears topping investors’ worry list, why has the cyclical S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector outperformed every other sector over the past two months? Jackie explores. … Also: Lithium demand is expected to surge in coming years, driven by EVs—but can supply keep up? Would-be lithium producers face daunting roadblocks. … And: A look at the latest wave in alternative energy, wave energy.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 19.
Markets
Dow Closes at Lowest Level of 2022 as Growth Fears Roil Markets | W
Dow drops nearly 500 points to close at new low for 2022 on rising recession fears | C
Stocks tumble, dollar soars and bonds plunge as recession fears grow | R
From the Fed to Europe's currency crisis, here's what's behind this selloff in financial markets | C
Central bankers
World’s Central Banks Race to Raise Rates After Fed Increase | W
Energy
A Natural Gas Shortage Is Looming For The U.S. | OilPrice.com
Column: Recession will be necessary to rebalance the oil market | R
Europe
U.K.’s Sweeping Tax Cuts Send Pound Tumbling, Bond Yields Higher | W
Italy's election campaign ends, tensions between EU and right flares | R
Italy’s Election Is the First Test of the West’s Anti-Putin Resolve | W
US
Middle-Income Households Feel Bigger Pinch From Inflation, Report Finds | W
Geopolitics & trade
Russia holds votes in occupied parts of Ukraine; Kyiv says residents coerced | R
Industries & companies
Autos: Ford’s Latest Supply-Chain Problem: a Shortage of Blue Oval Badges | W
Materials: Column: Russian supply uncertainty weighs on aluminium market | R
Tech: Tech stocks notch worst two-week stretch since the start of pandemic | C
Beyond markets
Is the Hyperloop Doomed? | NYT
Some investors backing out of SPAC merging with Trump's media firm | R
World Bank’s David Malpass Says He Isn’t Resigning Amid Criticism of His Climate Views | W
September 23 (Friday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumers, Lithium & Waves
With recession fears topping investors’ worry list, why has the cyclical S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector outperformed every other sector over the past two months? Jackie explores. … Also: Lithium demand is expected to surge in coming years, driven by EVs—but can supply keep up? Would-be lithium producers face daunting roadblocks. … And: A look at the latest wave in alternative energy, wave energy.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 19.
Markets
Bond selloff risks liquidation of world's most crowded trades- BofA | R
2-year Treasury tops 4.2%, a 15-year high as Fed continues to jolt short-term rates higher | C
Oil prices down 3% with recession fears in focus | R
Goldman Sachs cuts 2022 target for S&P 500 by 16% | R
HSBC warns investors to avoid European stocks | C
Central banks
ECB seeks to cut subsidy to banks as rate hikes leave it on hook, sources say | R
Global
War, Inflation Knock World Economy Off Balance | W
US
Charts suggest inflation could soon come down ‘substantially’ | C
From a booming economy to an economic bust! | Washington Examiner
Geopolitics & trade
Putin’s ‘incredibly dangerous’ nuclear threats raise the risk of an unprecedented disaster | C
Google Sees Russia Coordinating With Hackers in Cyberattacks Tied to Ukraine War | W
U.S. vs. China: The Race to Launch the Next Generation of Space Telescopes (video) | W
Industries & companies
Logistics: FedEx hikes package rates, details cost cutting as demand weakens globally | C
Pandemic
WHO warns ability to identify new Covid variants is diminishing as testing declines | C
September 22 (Thursday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Consumers, Lithium & Waves
With recession fears topping investors’ worry list, why has the cyclical S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector outperformed every other sector over the past two months? Jackie explores. … Also: Lithium demand is expected to surge in coming years, driven by EVs—but can supply keep up? Would-be lithium producers face daunting roadblocks. … And: A look at the latest wave in alternative energy, wave energy.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 19.
Markets
Fed Rate Decision Sends U.S. Treasury Yields in Different Directions | W
Japan Jumps Into Market to Buy Yen for First Time in 24 Years; Currency Rallies | W
Japan intervenes in FX market to stem yen falls after BOJ keeps low rates | C
Energy
The U.K. has lifted its fracking ban, digging up a long-running debate | C
Central banks
The Fed forecasts hiking rates as high as 4.6% before ending inflation fight | C
Fed rate hike September 2022: Rates raised by three-quarters of a percentage point | C
US
U.S. Home Sales and Prices Fell in August as Mortgage Rates Rose | W
After Years of Low Mortgage Rates, Home Sellers Are Scarce | W
Workers’ Changing Attitudes Tighten Labor Market | W
Opinion | Can Republicans Tax the Rich? | N
House Approves Electoral Count Act Overhaul as Senate Weighs Own Changes | W
Europe
Italian election: Italy turns to the right with FDI's Georgia Meloni | C
Geopolitics & trade
Russia begins massive Ukraine war call-up, spurring some men to flee | R
Ukraine war: Russia arrests over 1,300 after Putin mobilizes troops | C
Biden Urges the World to Stand United Against Russia in Address to U.N. | W
Ecuador Reaches Deal With China to Restructure Debt | W
Semiconductor alliances between U.S. and Asia could hold back China | C
Industries & companies
Airlines: Airline tickets could become even more expensive, aviation execs warn | C
Communications services: Meta Quietly Reduces Staff in Cost-Cutting Push | W
Retail: Target plans to hire 100,000 seasonal workers and start deals early | C
Climate
China urges Europe to take positive steps on climate change | R
Will the Patagonia founder's gift help save the world? | The Week
September 21 (Wednesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: On Earnings & Central Banks
S&P 500 forward earnings works well as a leading indicator of actual results during expansions and a coincident indicator of them during recessions; the same goes for forward revenues and forward profit margins. … Our takeaways from the three forward data series add up to a flat forward earnings outlook through early next year—a rosy viewpoint amid widespread recession trepidation. Our forward earnings and P/E forecasts together suggest a range-bound S&P 500 for the rest of this year. … Also: Melissa ferrets out the policy intentions of the ECB and BOJ.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 19.
Markets
S&P 500 History Points to a Sharp Bounce After Fed Meeting | B
Why Index Funds Could Fade | BR
Woke Wall Street is in for a reckoning | FO
High Natural-Gas Prices Push European Manufacturers to Shift to the U.S. | W
Central banks
Fed expected to hike rates by three-quarters of a point again, but its forecast may matter most | C
‘Rip off the Band-Aid’: Wells Fargo makes case for 150 basis point hike at Fed meeting | C
US
Climbing Housing Costs Could Prop Up Inflation for a While | W
August Home-Sales Report Comes as Mortgage Rates Rise | W
Mortgage demand rises for the first time in six weeks, despite sharply higher interest rates | C
The puzzling disconnect between production and employment | Hill
Democrats’ push for guaranteed income is a slap in the face to working people | P
Food Supply Stays Tight as Disappointing U.S. Harvest Adds to Global Challenges | W
China
China’s Vast 14,000-Bed Covid Isolation Center Revealed in Drone Footage | B
Geopolitics & trade
Putin accuses West of 'nuclear blackmail', mobilises more troops for Ukraine | R
Germany nationalizes energy giant Uniper as Russia squeezes gas supplies | C
European businesses are rethinking their plans for a ‘closed’ China | C
Industries & companies
Airlines: American Airlines will add new premium suites in 2024 in race for high-paying travelers | C
Autos: Ford stock suffers worst day since 2011 after cost warning, shedding $7 billion in market value | C
Technology
Watch Regent take its prototype electric seaglider out for a test flight | C
The robots are here. And they are making you fries. | WP
September 20 (Tuesday)
Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: How’s Business?
Today we focus on business sales, showing how it relates to the key economic indicators that feed into our economic outlook and how it correlates with S&P 500 companies’ aggregate and forward revenues, feeding into our stock market outlook. … For the economy, we forecast a “rolling recession”—a.k.a. “growth recession”—that depresses different industries at different times but avoids shrinking the overall economy. For the S&P 500, we estimate forward EPS of $215 this year, up 3.1% y/y, and $235 next year, up 9.3%.
(subscribers' link)
YRI
Daily Markets Overview
Replay of Dr. Ed's webinar on September 19.
Markets
Stocks Rise as Investors Await This Week’s Fed Meeting | W
Wall Street ends choppy session higher with focus firmly on Fed | R
Dow closes nearly 200 points higher, stocks snap two-day losing streak to start big Fed week | C
Need Your Money Now? The Markets Aren’t Helping. | N
Credit
10-year Treasury yield jumps to 3.51%, the highest level since 2011 | C
Rising Bond Yields Change the Calculus for Stocks | W
Central banks
Jerome Powell’s Inflation Whisperer: Paul Volcker | W
US
More homebuilders lower prices, sentiment falls for ninth straight month | C
Put Away the Smelling Salts, the Fed Doesn’t Threaten Washington’s ‘Solvency’ | FO
The Subprime Loans for College Hiding in Plain Sight | N
Geopolitics & trade
China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says | W
EU Seeks New Powers Over Supply Chains During Emergencies | W
Industries & companies
Airlines: FAA rejects proposal to halve pilots' flight-time requirement amid shortage | C
Autos: Ford Warns Parts Shortages Will Lead to Higher-Than-Planned Number of Unfinished Vehicles | W
Materials: